Lex专栏：准备金率与中国房价House arrest

Will the latest increase in China’s reserve requirement ratio put a brake on property prices? Don’t count on it. In a perverse way, every increase in the RRR is an incentive to load up on real estate.

中国最近一次上调存款准备金率会抑制房价吗？不一定。中国每一次上调存款准备金率，都会有悖常理地刺激房地产市场。

To understand why, take a few steps back. In the past, the People’s Bank soaked up liquidity caused by currency intervention by issuing sterilisation bills. From 2008 onwards, though, as the yield the bank paid on these liabilities started to rise above what it was earning on its assets – mostly US Treasuries – this became an expensive business. So the PBoC started locking up more bank deposits through the RRR: Friday’s increase, to 19 per cent, was the seventh since January last year. On its own terms, this has been a successful strategy. As Commerzbank notes, liquidity created through foreign exchange intervention since 2004 has tracked closely the liquidity absorbed via bill issuance and RRR rises.

若想究其原因，就要退后几步看。在过去，中国央行(PBoC)通过发行冲销式票据，来吸收因为干预汇率而产生的流动性。但自2008年起，随着央行为这些债券支付的利息开始超过从所持资产——主要是美国国债——上获得的收益，这种做法的成本已经十分高昂。因此，中国央行开始通过上调存款准备金率，来留存更多的银行存款：上周五准备金率上调至19%，为去年1月份以来的第七次上调。就其本身而言，这种策略十分成功。据德国商业银行(Commerzbank)表示，中国自2004年以来由于干预外汇而产生的流动性，一直密切追随通过发行票据和上调存款准备金率而被吸收的流动性。

But consider the implications for potential homebuyers. If bank credit growth is managed primarily through quotas, rather than the price of money, then every increase in the RRR amounts to an assurance that interest rates will not rise materially. In other words, yes, you can afford that second or third mortgage.

但想一想这对潜在购房人的影响吧。如果银行信贷的增长主要是通过调控贷款额度来管理，而非贷款成本，那么存款准备金率的每一次上调，都意味着官方在发出保证：利率不会大幅上调。换言之就是，没错，你可以负担得起第二个甚至第三个抵押贷款。

Does this matter? Since August 2005, when the official sale price data series for 70 cities began, the average yearly rise has been 7 per cent, well below the annual increase of about 12 per cent in urban disposable incomes. But the average is misleading. It masks the growing inequalities that show up in the consistent failure to hit targets for public housing development, the rise in tactical divorces to bypass one-home-per-family restrictions, and plummeting government approval ratings.

但这重要吗？自2005年8月官方开始发布70个大中城市的房屋销售价格数据系列以来，房价年均涨幅为7%，较城镇居民可支配收入约12%的年均增幅低出不少。但平均数具有误导性。它掩盖了诸多日益加剧的不平等现象：公共住房的开发始终未能达到目标；为绕开“一家限购一套住房”限令的假离婚越来越多；政府支持率的骤降。

Premier Wen Jiabao has implied that house prices, up for 19 straight months, are “unreasonable”. In reality, continued rises are eminently reasonable: abstract notions of tightened liquidity are just not as effective as real hits to personal finances.

中国总理温家宝暗示，房价连续19个月上涨是“不合理的”。实际上，房价持续上涨非常合理：收紧流动性这种抽象概念，怎么也不如个人财务状况受到切实冲击来得管用。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析