Lex专栏：“可怕”的香港房价

一位行政首长坦承感到害怕，从来不能让人宽慰。但香港特区行政长官曾荫权(Donald Tsang)是对的：香港的房地产价格确实“相当可怕”。

从孟买到墨尔本，随着加息的效应开始显现，许多地方的房地产价格正停滞不前。但香港没有出现这种局面。各方广泛关注的香港住宅价格指数——中原城市领先指数(CCL)仍在上升，促使当地央行在本月早些时候出台第四轮调控措施。对当地人来说，买房的激励明显存在：按揭利率仍可承受，同时货币持续疲弱。过去10年来，除了墨西哥比索外，港元相对于其它任何货币都出现贬值。

不过，最重要的推动因素来自边境另一侧。对中国内地人士来说，人民币自2001年以来升值22%，已经是做多香港资产的充分理由。再说，在香港拥有一套公寓，是针对不稳定的一种对冲——既能安全地避开北京方面的长臂，又不致离家太远。零售数据显示出内地人士的强劲购买力。例如，珠宝和手表占3月份香港零售支出总额的21%，高于食品、酒类和超市支出之和。

在全球最大上市开发商新鸿基(Sun HungKai)最近一个楼花的销售中，买家须首付20%，然后要等到2013年8月入住后才能获得产权。但是尽管采取了这样的策略，90%以上的单位还是在一天内售出。香港人在嘀咕，这有点像1997年异乎寻常的房价顶峰，当时正值英国将香港主权移交中国前夕。按名义价值计算，目前房价水平距离顶峰还有两个百分点，但在贸易加权和汇率调整的基础上，主要的中原城市指数仍比顶峰低24%。只要中国内地保持经济繁荣，香港房价就能够（而且很可能会）继续上涨。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

It is never reassuring whena chief executive admits to being scared. But Hong Kong's Donald Tsangis right: the cost of property in the city really is “quitefrightening”.

From Mumbai to Melbourne, real estate prices are stalling as higherinterest rates take hold. Not in Hong Kong, though, where the widelyfollowed Centa-City leading index of residential prices is still rising,prompting a fourth round of corrective measures from the central bankearlier this month. For locals, there are clear incentives to load up:still-affordable mortgage rates, and a persistently weak currency. Overthe past ten years the Hong Kong dollar has depreciated againsteverything bar the Mexican peso.

The more important driver, though, comes from over the border. Formainland Chinese, a 22 per cent gain for the renminbi since 2001 isreason enough to go long Hong Kong. Further, an apartment in the city isa hedge against instability – safely away from the long arm of Beijing,yet still close to home. Retail sales data show mainlanders’ ferociouspurchasing power. Jewelry and watches accounted for 21 per cent of thetotal value of retail spending in March, for example – higher than allfood, booze and supermarket bills combined.

At a recent sale by Sun Hung Kai, the world’s largest listeddeveloper, buyers put down 20 per cent with nothing to follow untilpossession in August 2013. But despite such tactics, more than 90 percent of units went within a day. Hongkongers mutter about theextraordinary 1997 peak, achieved before the handover from the UK toChina. That is two percentage points away in nominal terms, but the mainCenta-City index is still 24 per cent below that level, on atrade-weighted, exchange rate-adjusted basis. As long as China keepshumming, prices can, and probably will, go higher.