高中ap课程是什么意思:North Korea's power tran...

North Korea's power transition near complete
By Sunny Lee

BEIJING - North Korea is now co-governed by father and son. The power transition in North Korea has been smooth and the Dear Leader has delegated a considerable amount of authority to his heir and third son, Kim Jong-eun. It's a year since North Korea's probable next leader made his debut as such, showing up at a military parade where he shared a podium with his father.

On September 19, South Korea's Unification Ministry, which is in charge of inter-Korean relations, submitted an analysis report to the National Assembly, stating: "Kim Jong-eun appears to have secured his 'niche'."

"Kim Jong-eun has implanted officials who are loyal to him in the powerful organizations, including the military and the security apparatus. He is also involved in the process of deciding

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The young general officially debuted in North Korea's power politics on September 28, 2010, when he was appointed the second in command of the Workers' Party Central Military Commission, just a day after his father made him a four-star general. It was the first time the family-run state mentioned the younger Kim's name officially.

The South expected the junior Kim to receive the vice chief post at the National Defense Commission, North Korea's most powerful organ, where Kim Jong-il currently sits as its head. It didn't specify the timetable of when it would happen. In February 2011, South Korea's largest-selling newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, reported that Kim Jong-eun had acceded to a senior position on the National Defense Commission. The North's state-controlled media so far has not addressed him in that capacity.

It was not known whether Jong-eun held any previous posts. Analysts believe he has been on the power ladder "fast track" after his father suffered a stroke in the summer of 2008, which prompted the Dear Leader, now 69, to accelerate the succession process.

A year on, the key questions surrounding the succession among observers remain the same. They not only include whether the power transition has been unfolding without a glitch but also how far it has gone, as well as what challenges the junior Kim, still in his twenties, will face as a political naif.

"I judge the succession process has entered a stable period," said Choi Myeong-hae, a North Korea expert at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul.

A Chinese expert agreed. "As of today, I think the succession process has been smooth without a major setback," noted Cai Jian, a deputy director of the Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. "When Kim Jong-il traveled to China and Russia, he left Jong-eun behind at home. If the succession process was disorderly, he wouldn't have left his son in North Korea while he was away. That means the house is in order."

For the last year, the so-called "co-governance" between the father and son "has firmly been firmly put in place," said Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea specialist at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. "Not only has Kim Jong-eun been accompanying his father in various inspections, he is also seen giving his instructions alongside his father."

Befitting this view, North Korea's official state media has recently increased footages in which North Korean officials took a picture with the junior Kim standing at the center. There have been also increasing "instructions by Kim Jong-eun" to the military, South Korean media outlets said.

After his 2008 stroke, one major change by Kim Jong-il was to check the old guards in the military and place Jang Song-thaek as vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, which was carried out in June 2010. Jang, born in 1946, is Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law and is widely believed as Jong-eun's guardian.

"Kim Jong-il created a new military brass with Jang at the center. Since then, the power transition has been unfolding seamlessly," said Choi at Samsung. Choi even characterized the succession process as being "internally complete".

A Western foreign ambassador who recently wrapped up his three-year stint in Pyongyang offered a more nuanced view. Peter Hughes, who served as United Kingdom ambassador to Pyongyang, told South Korean journalists in Seoul on September 28, 2011: "It has become a habit at national events to propose a toast to the health of Kim Jong-il and the young general Kim Jong-eun."

But he noted that the succession matter still remains sensitive in North Korea. "If you ask officials afterwards who this young general Kim Jong-eun is, they will say he's General Kim Jong-eun. They will not say he's the successor or he's going to replace Kim Jong-il. That is not an issue for discussion," Hughes said.

According to Cheong at Sejong Institute, the power sharing between the father and son has reached a substantive level. "Kim Jong-eun screens documents that are submitted to his father. While Kim Jong-il handles the most sensitive and difficult agendas such as the nuclear issue and summit diplomacy, Pyongyang's policy on South Korea, most of the rest are decided by Jong-eun," said Cheong.

Kim Jong-eun's challenge
Next year, North Korea will hold an unprecedented, massive centenary celebration of the birth of the nation's founder, Kim Il-sung, Jong-eun's grandfather. North Korea has also earmarked the year for creating a "powerful and prosperous" country.

Analysts expect the year will test the junior Kim's ability as the new leader. They point out that the economy is the primary challenge, with Jong-eun dealing with the impoverished country. "The first test for Kim Jong-eun as the new and rising leader is whether he can feed his people," said Lee Chanwoo, a North Korea expert at Tokyo International University in Japan.

"Jong-eun needs to position skillful bureaucrats in economic sectors and especially pay attention to increasing agricultural productivity. If there is not enough food going around next year, people's affinity toward the young leader will dramatically plummet."

The economy "is the primary challenge the young leader will face, and I think he is fully aware of the importance of the issue," said Jin Canrong, a security expert at Renmin University in Beijing. "In order to have a better economic situation it's important for North Korea to have better ties with the United States."

Despite their tense relations, the US has been one of the primary food aid providers to North Korea on humanitarian grounds. Countries that are allies to the US also tend to follow suit when the US changes its behavior towards North Korea.

Given the North's military-first , or Songun policy, Jong-eun also needs to prove himself as a strong military leader. "Economic achievements and building a strong military are the two goals that often conflict with each other. But the irony is that this is what Jong-eun needs to handle well at the same time," said Lee in Tokyo.

Other doubts facing Jong-eun surround his age. "Young age means inexperience. And it could definitely become his weak spot," said Cai Jian, the expert in Shanghai. "But the young age also means that he is more willing to experiment with new things the old leadership cannot afford to imagine. In addition, the young age also means that once a new decision is reached, he is likely to implement it in a decisive and straightforward manner."

Jin at Remin University agrees that the succession process so far has been smooth, but he believes Jong-eun's young age could pose a problem. "So far so good. But the future prospect can still shift depending on the longevity of the aged leader, Kim Jong-il," Jin noted.

Perhaps that will give an added reason for Kim Jong-il to further speed up the power transfer, and 2012 will be an opportune time to do so, given its national significance. Cheong at the Sejong Institute predicts Jong-eun will need to show to his people next year that he is a mature leader who doesn't have to rely on his father any more. "I expect Kim Jong-eun will conduct more site inspections alone, without being accompanied by his father. His father will take the back seat and support his son.

"There is even possibility that Kim Jong-il will hand over the military governance power to his son. That would complete the power transition," said Cheong.