金秀贤父亲:“去杠杆化”必须谨慎从事

Handle with care
必须谨慎从事

“Deleveraging” will dominate the rich world’s economies for years. Done badly, it could wreck them
“去杠杆化”将在很多年内主导发达国家的经济，处理不当可能对经济造成毁灭性破坏

Jul 7th 2011 | from the print edition



     DEBT reduction, or deleveraging as it is known in the inelegant argot of economists, is a painful process. Growth suffers as consumers and firms, let alone governments, try to reduce their debts. Countries which experienced the biggest asset busts, such as America, Britain and Spain, have had the most disappointing recoveries. And the pain will continue: a careful look at the numbers suggests that the process of deleveraging has barely begun.
      削减债务，或用经济学家并不文雅的行话来说“去杠杆化”，是一个痛苦的过程。随着消费者和公司（更不用说还有政府部门）努力削减他们的债务负担，经济增长受到拖累。在美国、英国和西班牙等经历了最严重的资产泡沫破裂的国家，其经济复苏步伐也最令人失望。而且痛苦还将持续：对相关数据的仔细研究表明，去杠杆化的过程才刚刚开始。

A new analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that over the past year or so total debt levels, measured relative to GDP, have stabilised and, in some rich countries, started to inch down. But if history is a guide, there is still a long way to go. The ratio of total debt to GDP in both America and Britain has fallen by just over ten percentage points from its peak—a fraction of the scale of debt reduction in a typical deleveraging period (see article). Worse, the McKinsey analysis suggests that economies usually stagnate, or even shrink, early in the overall debt-reduction process.
       麦肯锡全球研究院（McKinsey Global Institute）一份新出炉的报告表明，在过去一年左右的时间里，用债务与GDP之比来衡量的总体债务水平已经稳定下来，而且在一些发达国家还开始缓步下降。但如果历史可以为鉴的话，去杠杆化仍然是前路漫漫。在美国和英国，总体债务与GDP之比与高峰时相比只下降了10个百分点稍多，与通常的整个去杠杆化时期债务下降总幅度相比只是一小部分。更糟的是，麦肯锡的分析表明，在全面去杠杆化过程的早期，经济通常会停滞不前甚至萎缩。

To minimise that risk, the pace of deleveraging needs to be carefully calibrated. The experience so far of the most indebted economies offers useful pointers on what to do, and what not to do.
       要把这种风险控制在最低程度，就需要仔细调节去杠杆化的步伐。哪些事情该做，哪些事情不该做，那些负债最多的国家走过的路为此提供了有用的指引。

Debt can be reduced in several ways. It can be paid off with the help of higher thrift (though not everyone can spend less than they earn at the same time). Its burden can be reduced through higher inflation or faster growth. Or it can be defaulted on. In practice, rich countries seem to be using different combinations of these approaches.
        减债有几种方式。可以通过更加节俭的生活方式（虽然不是所有人都能同时做到量入为出），可以借助更高的通货膨胀或者更快的经济增长，还可以直接违约。在现实中，发达国家似乎正在用不同的组合方式来使用上述手段。

In America, where overall debt levels have fallen fastest, a lot of the reduction in household debt has been thanks to mortgage defaults and write-downs. In Britain, where there have been virtually no mortgage write-downs, relatively high inflation has pushed down the overall debt burden. Spain, in contrast, has seen virtually no reduction in its debt load, despite fiscal austerity, partly because that very austerity has contributed to weak growth and low inflation which have kept down nominal GDP. Tough rules on mortgages have made it hard to reduce unpayable household debt.
        在总体债务水平下降最快的美国，家庭负债减少有很多是住房抵押贷款违约和价值减记的结果。英国几乎不存在抵押贷款减记，总体债务水平下降是由相对较高的通货膨胀推动的。相比之下，西班牙尽管采取了财政紧缩政策，总体债务水平却几乎没有下降，部分原因正是财政紧缩政策导致经济增长疲弱，通货膨胀率低，从而使名义GDP保持在低位。针对抵押贷款的严厉规定，又使沉重得难以支付的家庭债务更难削减。

Write down and get real
债务减记和面对现实

What can be learnt from these various approaches? It is still early days, but four lessons stand out. The first is that in some extreme cases, when a large debt reduction is needed, orderly write-downs are necessary. The foreclosures on American mortgages have been severe, but they mean that household debt is likely to shrink to manageable levels faster than in, say, Britain, where low interest rates on variable mortgages and a lot of “forbearance” by banks have kept defaults artificially low. At the sovereign level the same logic should apply to hopelessly bankrupt Greece: it needs a debt write-down.
         上面说到的各种方法能带来什么启示？当然现在谈启示还早，但有四个经验教训很突出。首先，在某些极端情况下，当需要大幅削减债务的时候，有序的价值减记是必要的。美国不良房贷引发取消止赎权的现象很严重，但这也意味着，跟英国等国相比，家庭负债可能会更快速地下降到能够驾驭的水平。在英国，浮动房贷的利率低，银行也普遍保持“宽容”，从而人为地将违约率保持在低位。在主权债务层面，同样的逻辑可以应用于毫无希望并陷入破产境地的希腊：它需要进行债务减记。

Second, nominal growth is essential to bring down the weight of debt. It is hard to ease the debt burden in a stagnant economy with low inflation. That suggests the pace of public-sector austerity, where possible, needs to be calibrated to the scale of private deleveraging. America’s government, for instance, needs a medium-term plan for deficit reduction, but cutting back spending viciously in the short term at a time of private-sector retrenchment would be a mistake.
        第二，名义增长对降低债务比重至关重要。在通胀低但经济停滞的国家，债务负担很难减轻。这意味着，公共部门实行财政紧缩时，如果有可能的话，其力度应该调节到与私人部门去杠杆化的力度相匹配的程度。比如说，美国政府需要制定一个减债的中期计划，但是在私营部门正在紧缩的时候，政府短期内大幅削减开支将是一个错误。

Third, the best way to ease the pain of deleveraging is with an export-led boom. Here, progress has been painfully slow. The external deficits of ex-bubble economies have shrunk since 2007, but not by enough—and some now seem to be rising again. There has been too little rebalancing of global demand towards big emerging economies. That will require stronger currencies in emerging Asia and weaker ones in the rich world.      
       第三，缓解去杠杆化之痛的最好办法是通过出口创造繁荣。而在这方面进展一直缓慢，令人痛苦。在泡沫破裂的经济体，其外部赤字从2007年以来已经减少，但还不够，而且有些国家现在似乎又在上升。全球需求朝主要新兴经济体转移的再平衡的步子太小。这种再平衡的实现需要亚洲新兴经济体货币升值而发达国家的货币贬值。

Deeper shifts will also be necessary: a strengthening of consumer society in China, for example, and a reallocation of resources towards tradable goods and services in Britain and America. Unfortunately, the sensible goal of rebalancing towards net exports can lead to dubious policy prescriptions. Britain, for instance, would be mad to turn its back on financial services (see article). No rich country needs a smorgasbord of subsidies for manufacturing. Far better to get rid of distortions and improve the economy’s flexibility.
        更深层次的转型也必不可少，如在中国加强消费社会建设，而在英国和美国将资源配置向贸易品倾斜。不幸的是，实现朝净出口倾斜的再平衡这个目标虽然合理，却可能导致后果难料的政策方案。比如英国只有疯了才会抛弃它的金融服务业。没有一个发达国家喜欢给制造业提供大杂烩式的补助。还是消除（经济机构中的）扭曲现象，增强经济的灵活性比这些要好得多。

All this will take time. So the fourth, most important and most depressing lesson for the great deleveraging is that of realism. Even if handled well, the difficult business of debt reduction will hold back the rich world’s economies for several more years. Get used to it.
        但要做到这些需要假以时日。因此大规模去杠杆化的第四个、同时也是最重要和最令人抑郁的启示就是：面对现实。减债是件难事，即使处理恰当，也会在今后几年内抑制发达国家的经济增长。还是适应这个现实吧。