谁练过凌云搏击术:US-China rivalry still a mismatch - Focus dis...

来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/28 23:42:02

US-China rivalry still a mismatch



China America.jpg (7.66 KB)
2011-4-15 09:08

By Jinghao Zhou


Over the past decade or so, the "China threat" theory has spread throughout the West, despite Beijing's repeated pledges that China's rise will be peaceful.


Now, as China replaces Japan as the world's second-largest economy behind the United Sates, fears arise that US dominance is being challenged. So much so that observers say Washington is preparing for a long cold war with China by strengthening its ground and air power in Asia。


It is not constructive to Sino-US relations - the most important bilateral relationship in the world today - if Washington bases its China policy on the "China threat" hypothesis. It is necessary to clarify whether China's rise really poses a challenge to US dominance.


There are numerous reasons why a rising China poses no threat to the US - at least not for a long time to come.


China has no intention to challenge the US

Pessimists say every rising power desires global authority, to reshape the existing global order. They believe China is seeking regional superpower status and plans to drive the US out from Asia, with imperialism next on the agenda.


However, it is one thing for Americans to feel unhappy or jealous on seeing China become increasingly strong economically and militarily. It is quite another to conclude that China's rise is a threat. To take an analogy from life, one may feel envious to see a neighbor become more prosperous, but one is not threatened unless the neighbor shows an intention to do so.


For one country to pose a challenge or threat to another, it must have the intention to do so. There is nothing that suggests China has any plans to challenge the US.


China has made marvelous achievements in the past three decades through its "reform and opening up", which started in the late 1970s. But China launched reform and opening up primarily to save the country's economy from bankruptcy, not to challenge any country. The so-called "China model" or "Beijing Consensus" typically reflects such developmental intentions.


It is a very natural process for a rising power to expand its business interests worldwide, as the nature of capital is to flow to wherever profits can be made. It is inevitable that the US and other countries will face competition from China's growing economy. But in the era of globalization, no one should see economic competition as a threat.


With its growing economic muscle, it is also natural for China to gain greater influence in international affairs. But this does not mean China seeks world dominance. While reform and opening up may have enabled China to advance economically, it has also created thorny problems such as corruption, widening wealth gaps and social injustice, which threaten social stability and hence the legitimacy of the rule of the Communist Party of China (CPC).


To tackle domestic problems through "deepening reform and opening up", China needs a peaceful global environment. There is no reason for China to upset the current world order by challenging US dominance. The current order is Western-oriented, solid and not easy to overthrow. The Chinese government does not believe that challenging the US serves China's best interests or that China's future rests on overturning the current international system.


The CPC passed the resolution, "On Major Issues Regarding the Building of a Harmonious Socialist Society" in October 2006, placing "building a harmonious society" at the top of its work agenda. Interestingly, apparently in response to Western concerns, the party quietly modified the term of "peaceful rise" into "peaceful development".


In practice, China has been striving to build a market economy which is within the Western-orientated system. China has yet to improve its fledgling market economy by introducing more reforms in finance and services. China still needs to learn from the West - declining as it may be following the global financial crisis, and the US and European Union are China's largest export markets. For China, to challenge US dominance may be economically self-destructive, and whenever possible, Beijing avoids public confrontation with Washington.


The Chinese government recently issued the Defense White Paper, which, once again, pledges that China will never seek hegemony or engage in military expansion.


A long time for China to catch up

A recent survey shows many Americans see China's growing economic power as a threat to the US.


China is the fastest growing economy in the world with its gross domestic product (GDP) growing 10.3% annually in past three decades. If the Chinese economy continues to grow at such a pace, China will surpass the US in the next couple of decades.


But the question is whether China will be able to maintain such high-speed growth. Although many scholars agree that the Chinese economy will continue to grow at 8% or higher annually in the next 5-10 years, David Beim, a professor with Columbia Business School, believes that the golden age of Chinese super-growth is nearing an end. The Asian Development Bank has predicted that that China's growth rates in the next two decades will be only about half of what they were in the last 30 years.


The Economist recently predicted that China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy within the next 10 years. According to the Economist, if you double expected American growth from 2.5% per year to 5% per year, you push the key date back from 2019 to 2022. If you slow China's growth to 5% annually, you delay the transition to 2028.


While China's GDP ranks as the second-highest in the world, it's still just about one-third of the US's. And China's per capita GDP is only some $4,500, about a tenth of the US, ranking below 100th in the world. In this sense, China is still an emerging economy. Moreover, of China's 1.3 billion population, about 800 million still live in rural areas and some 20 million live in poverty. In this sense, China is still a developing country and it may take a long time, if not a century, to really become an economic power.


Interestingly, more and more American people feel that China is catching up to the US. According to a survey conducted by the Washington-based Pew Research Center for the People and the Press in 2011, about 47% of participants say China, not the US, is the world's top economic power, while 31% continue to name the US. The result of the survey obviously contradicts the reality, though it shows the American people's uneasiness with China's growing power. They worry that the US is at risk of falling behind in a global battle for influence with China. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has admitted that the US is struggling to hold its role as global leader.


Policy of defense

Ever since the Great Wall was built more than 2,000 years ago, China's military policy has largely revolved around defense. So much so that Western powers had to use gun ships to knock out the doors of the Middle Kingdom in the mid-19th century.


Yet Washington is concerned about the development of China's military. The 2010 Report to Congress of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission pointed out that China has accelerated military modernization, including foreign purchases and indigenous production of high-technology equipment.


No doubt, China's military budget has rapidly grown. In 2010, the defense budget was 532.115 billion yuan (US$81.3 billion), while this year it is expected to hit 601 billion yuan. Western governments are wondering why China has accelerated its military modernization since it faces no obvious threat. After visiting China in 2010, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates concluded that China's military development will challenge US military power in Asia and may challenge the US military operation worldwide.


That China has sped up its military modernization is a fact. But this does not prove China has any intention of challenging US dominance. This kind of thinking displays a Cold War mentality, as if simply owning a strong military is a threat, then the US is the biggest threat to every country in the world.


China spends one-eighth of the US's military budget, if one accepts the official figures. The US has the largest defense budget in the world, accounting for 47% of the world's total military spending. There are about 154 countries with a US military presence and 63 countries with US military bases and troops. By contrast, China does not have a single military base in any foreign country.


Even now, the Chinese military lags far behind the US and European countries. Although China has nuclear-weapons capability, the Chinese army is ill-equipped. China does not have a large navy or a single aircraft carrier. China's air force does not have any long-range bombers. Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie told Gates that China is not an advanced military country and poses no threat to the rest of the world.


This said, China needs to increase transparency of its military expansion, to let the world including the US know its military strategic intent, so as to assure the world that its rise is really "peaceful". China's military expansion will inevitably upset the existing balance of global forces with US in dominance.


It is common sense that a nation's strength must be supported by military power. China needs a stronger military to protect its growing global interests. Dispatching naval warships to escort Chinese commercial ships off Somalia and help evacuate Chinese nationals in Libya is a good example. China could not have taken such actions 20 or 30 years ago when its military was rather weak.


Another major reason for China to modernize its military force is to protect its territorial integrity, especially to prevent Taiwan from actually separating from China. If Washington sees this as a potential threat to US, then it has to gain a better understanding of Chinese people's feelings. The majority of the Chinese people clearly remember that China was bullied and humiliated by Western powers for a century.


The US has kept selling weapons to Taiwan. Beijing has no choice but to elevate its military capabilities. The reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is the common will of the majority of the Chinese people.


On the other hand, if Washington takes a wrong policy turn on the Taiwan issue, it could hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and trigger anti-American sentiments. Charles Glaser, director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at George Washington University, wisely suggests that the US should modify its foreign policy, making concessions to Beijing, including the possibility of backing away from its commitment to Taiwan, in order to avoid a war between the US and China.


Many American scholars believe that China has begun to take a more aggressive strategy towards the US, questioning if China is departing from Deng Xiaoping's foreign policy of tao guang yang hui (hide brightness and nourish cherish obscurity, or bide our time and build up our capabilities) toward the US. Elizabeth Economy, director for Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, notes that the consensus of the Deng era has begun to fray and that Beijing will expand its influence to the rest of the world.


However, in order for China to shoulder the responsibilities of a rising world power, many China experts worldwide maintain that China must become more assertive. There are also different views in China on why China's relations with bordering countries are deteriorating. According to the 2011 Pacific Blue Book published by the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, all problems with bordering countries are not the result of new Chinese foreign policy, but derived from the US returning to Asia. China believes that the United States seeks to contain China's rise or to block it.


The Implications of the 'China threat'

Since a rising China poses no threat to the United States and the West, why the is "China threat" theory so popular in Western society? It is in part derived from the psychological impact of exaggerating China's rise.


Thomas J Christensen, the former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, points out that the press has often exaggerated the influence of China's rise. The US remains the dominant power in the world. Also, mistrust from both sides contributes to the "China threat" theory. Some reports say most Americans not only distrust but despise China. During the US mid-term election in 2010, about 30 anti-China advertisements appeared on US televisions. Beijing does not share many of the same interests and values as the US and its allies.


The US does not want to become the Number Two power in the world and refuses to tolerate China as a regional power. The majority of Americans are not happy that China is becoming the largest economy behind the United States. However, the United States cannot stop China's rise.


If the US tries to keep China weak, this will increase China's domestic instability, negatively and seriously affecting global peace and development. A strong China contributes to the world's development and to global peace, while the collapse of China will gravely threaten Western societies.


The most important thing for both sides is to understand each other and build trust. A rising power will not necessarily threaten the US and the West. The United States in the 20th century is a good example of a state achieving eminence without conflict with dominant countries. Hopefully, China's performance will be better in the 21st century.
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