金山wps破解版:US should avoid war with a rising China

来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/05/03 06:04:56

US should avoid war with a rising China


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Scenarios of a military conflict with a rising China are pointless if they leave out a glaring detail—the global economy.
As China’s growing strength gains greater global attention, more and more time, energy, and money will be spent asking how the United States will counter an increasingly capable Chinese military.


But fear of China’s perceived martial intentions is both overblown and unproductive for the United States and its military. Focusing solely on Chinese military capabilities clouds the critical challenge of preventing a catastrophic Sino-American conflict. Furthermore, this distraction obscures the real work of guiding China’s rise as an open, self-confident, fully integrated member of the world community.


Most people know that we rely on China for much of what we consume, yet perhaps few fully understand the immensity of that reliance. Writing in The Atlantic, James Fallows gives a partial run-down of what China produces: computers, including desktops, laptops, and servers; telecom equipment, from routers to mobile phones; audio equipment, including anything MP3-related, home stereo systems, most portable devices, and headsets; video equipment of all sorts, from cameras and camcorders to replay devices; personal-care items and high-end specialty-catalog goods; medical devices; sporting goods and exercise equipment; any kind of electronic goods or accessories; and, for that matter, just about anything else you can think of.


These examples, which do not even account for the $900 billion that China holds in U.S. government debt, along with countless other globalization facts, dictate that easy separation between military analyses and wider economic and political factors is insufficient in advancing our strategic thinking.

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While a declaration of independence by Taiwan is widely seen as the catalyst for a Sino-American conflict, an unforeseen episode between Beijing and Taiwan is perhaps just as likely to escalate into an international incident. This would demonstrate the seriousness of the military threat to Taiwan and make a clear statement to a domestic audience that only Beijing will decide the fate of Taiwan. The United States would respond in kind militarily, if for no other reason than to ensure an adequate deterrence posture.


International economic markets would watch these events closely, and any announcement of military activities would set off a downward spiral in the international stock markets. Both Apple and Walmart, which receive most, if not all of their production from China, would see their stock prices plummet. Although a majority of Americans do not watch the stock market regularly, approximately 50 percent of the U.S. population owns stocks either outright or through mutual funds and 401Ks. Companies such as Apple, Walmart, and hundreds of others are heavily invested in Beijing, Taiwan, and the rest of the Western Pacific. The resulting dive in the stock market would make Americans acutely aware of just how connected their financial well-being is linked to Beijing and Taiwan.


The American political establishment would not allow China to forcibly coerce a multiparty democracy to bend to its will, and in the worst-case scenario, U.S. political pressures and the need to reassure allies would force a retaliatory trade embargo. Both Chinese and U.S actions would significantly impact seagoing and airborne trade in the vicinity of Beijing, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the Strait of Malacca. Even without a formal blockade, the civilian response to this scenario would be the same. Once a threat of a military strike against Taiwan became a possibility, or if Chinese submarines were to put to sea in large numbers to enforce a blockade, commercial shipping in the area would drop off dramatically of its own accord.


The impact to the world economy would be instantaneous. Apple, along with other technology firms that rely on China, would face disaster. Walmart, even more broadly reflective of the wider U.S. economy, would fare little better. In the era of “just-in-time logistics,” when shipping companies act as Walmart’s warehouse, it only would be a few days before the United States would start seeing eerily empty shelves, not only at Walmart but at other stores across the country. Companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that are dependent on sales and growth in China—including Alcoa, Caterpillar, General Electric, McDonald’s, and Boeing, to name a few—would see huge losses. The technology-heavy NASDAQ companies would lose even more of their stock-market value.


This scenario is not meant to be a scare tactic, and it is not based on the fear of a militarily capable China. It simply represents the reality in which we live. The vital economic links between the United States and China mean that even the buildup to a military conflict would have dire effects. The United States should be alarmed about “Chinese strategic writings, which often express considerable confidence that China can manage strategic escalation in measured increments with a high degree of certainty.”

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Conflict with China would not be an isolated or limited affair. In any type of Sino-American war scenario there should be no expectation that political leaders could manage the economic fallout. Both sides, and the entire world economy, would be devastated by the economic consequences, and the ramifications would affect all facets of U.S. society.


Concerns over China’s ostensibly peaceful rise still highlight how critical it is for the United States to manage its relations with China. As China analyst Andrew Scobell states, “To Beijing’s leaders the potential for a conventional conflict with the U.S. is highly unlikely in the near future, with the notable exception of Taiwan.”


So where does this leave the vital discussion about U.S.-Chinese relations? As China becomes more of a potential military rival, U.S. strategic thinking needs to evolve beyond the age-old question of “How do we counter?” Perhaps the real question is, “How do we prevent any type of military conflict with China?”


What the United States truly needs to fear, and do everything in its power to prevent, is a China that believes it has nothing to lose by opposing America in some type of military engagement. In this case no amount of deterrence would prevent a catastrophic conflict.


The United States must make it clear that if China were to try to use coercive military means to prevent Taiwan from declaring its de facto independence, there would be no strategic winner. Once this is understood, then the question of how to prevent a military conflict with China takes on new importance. (From USNI)
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