重庆科技学院地图:South China Sea: Will US Give Philippines A S...

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South China Sea: Will US Give Philippines A Strong Backing?

South China Sea Dispute runs into the 4th week - hotspots broadcasting now --


It seems that the Philippine are quite positively and confidence about backing from US through its words and actions --


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Philippine frigates sailing into South China Sea

The Phillipine yells that "let's hurray for Philippine's deploying frigates in South China Sea - no, I mean West Philippine Sea! For Philippine, there won't be any loss to fight against China and tell him that we are not the weak! We have US backing us. don't we? don't we? Initially, Signal from Washington DC to defend us is not that clear,but now there are Hillary Clinton's clear words after two weeks saying that US will help Philippine over their self-defence.US will and be able to do as a superpower if it does not have alternatives." (briefly rephrased from Philippine Daily Inquiry)  


Cool down, Philippines, why not look at the power asymmetry in South China Sea --


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“China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact,” China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said at the 17th Asean Regional Forum in July 2010, after several countries, including the United States,  raised concerns on the South China Sea.

One caveat is in order: Using various measures, most Southeast Asian countries cannot really be considered small by traditional standards. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand are the world’s 4th, 12th, 13th and 19th most populous countries, respectively, while collectively, Asean represents close to 600 million people.




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Being big can be a source of either weakness or constraint for China.


Because China is big, it has many internal problems that its leaders will need to focus on, in particular the need to shore up legitimacy and ensure the continuing dominance of the Chinese Communist Party. China’s leaders are facing complex social and economic issues, many of them typical of developing countries but at a much larger scale. Some of these are leading to pressures for political or governance reform that will keep the incoming fifth generation leaders on their toes, and therefore in need of a stable external environment.


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Thus, in the overall scheme of things, China’s disputes with some Southeast Asian countries over the Xisha (Spratlys and Paracels) Islands themselves do not appear to be a major threat to its core interests.


What about the “small countries” of Southeast Asia? Small countries may have less options than big ones for dealing with rising powers, but they can still choose from quite a range—they can align with the rising power or try to balance against it by aligning with a competing power. They can pursue what international relations scholar Evelyn Goh calls the omni-enmeshment of multiple great powers, or they can concentrate on building institutions and inclusive communities. Asean is obviously doing a combination of these, and appears to be successful.


So what's the Philippine official voice towards US's "help"? Malacañang palace said that " US 'commitment' to PHL shouldn't upset China"


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Malacañang palace

Malacañang on Saturday said China shouldn’t be upset of the United States’ reassurance to help the military forces of the Philippines amid growing tensions in disputed areas of the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).


Deputy presidential spokesperson Abigail Valte said the assurance was merely part of a “renewed" commitment of both countries to maintain a peaceful environment in Southeast Asia.


“It’s just an affirmation of commitment for peace and stability in the region. [Surely] it will not ruffle any feathers," Valte said on government-run dzRB radio.



But largely, the situation remains a gaming stage for ongoing China-US power struggle --


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Kurt M. Campbell and Cui Tiankai shakes hands at China-US Asia Pacific Consultations, Honolulu


Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt M. Campbell said he had a “useful and productive exchange of views” with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai. Cui didn’t speak to the press after the meetings.


Campbell said his discussions with Cui in Honolulu included military development, Chinese diplomacy with North Korea and Myanmar and U.S. interests in the region, as part of an effort to promote transparency.


The U.S.welcomes a prosperous and successful China” and the two sides agreed to hold another round of talks in China at a mutually agreed upon time, Campbell said. “These dialogues enhance cooperation and contribute to better understanding between the U.S. and China.”


The claims of China and US have huge difference. China blames that the series of conflicts are caused by Philippine unilaterally exploring the resources in South China Sea, and China suggests bilateral talks as solution. Meanwhile China denied the there is any problem of "freedome of navigation" in South China Sea, which totally rejecting the US stance positively.


Philippin Daily Inquiry/GMA News/Bloomberg/AFP/MaritimeSecurity



Will US give Philippine a strong backing eventually? Well, game continues and remains to be seen - but one quick reminder - that is in fact a game between great powers. If not involving US in, the players are less and things would be much easier -  for Philippines.


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