远古猎神团无我:China-US diplomatic

来源:百度文库 编辑:九乡新闻网 时间:2024/03/29 22:44:46
Taiwan caught in China-US diplomatic speak
By Jens Kastner

TAIPEI - On Sunday, General Chen Bingde, chief of the general staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), concluded a week-long visit to the United States.

His delegation held talks with chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It has been seven years since a US chairman of the Joint Chiefs met with his Chinese counterpart, and this was the first time that China and the US had held high-level military talks since Beijing cut military ties in protest at US arms sales to Taiwan last year.

The objectives were straightforward: While the Americans first and

#syndicated-div, #syndicated-div img, #syndicated-div td, #syndicated-div th { border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; }OBJECT {OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium}#jamboplayer_div {VISIBILITY: hidden}foremost wanted to see military-to-military talks resumed, for the Chinese, as usual, it all came down to Taiwan.

Chen, who in the late 1990s was commander of the Nanjing Military Region that covers Shanghai Municipality and the four coastal provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Fujian - an area crucial in Beijing's military strategy against Taiwan - appealed to Washington to stop providing the self-governed island with arms.

Naturally, those concerned with Taiwan's de facto sovereignty paid close attention. And whereas at one point Chen apparently deliberately pulled their leg with his comments, other statements of his appeared to carry significance.

In the diplomatic world, wording is not left to chance; conveyed between the lines are messages encrypted in a manner that leaves laymen scratching their heads.

For an evaluation of what General Chen said, Asia Times Online interviewed Bonnie Glaser. Glaser, a senior observer on Chinese foreign and security policy, holds the position of a senior fellow with the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies. If only a handful of Western observers have mastered Beijing's diplomatic diction, Glaser is arguably one of them.

The first statement of Chen that Glaser was asked to comment on reads as follows:
One American friend suggested that China remove or withdraw the missiles deployed across the Taiwan Strait along our southeast coast. I can tell you here, responsibly, that the PLA only has garrison deployment in the coastal areas near Taiwan, but no operational deployment, much less missile deployment.
Glaser categorized this statement as "rather bizarre". Yet although she pointed out that it's clearly not accurate, conceding that she has no idea why the general would have said such as thing in the first place, she said it didn't much surprise her, either. "The Chinese made certain statements in the past, but months afterwards, evidence proved their claims wrong," she said.

"The US and Taiwan have both released reports on how many missile brigades are stationed at what locations, and [Taiwan's former president] Chen Shui-bian in the past even caused a stir with making public almost the exact numbers," said Glaser.

The Taiwanese themselves identified Chen's claim as hair-splitting. The island's media, defense analysts and politicians pointed out that Chen's term "garrison deployment" simply stands for an established military base, and that ballistic missiles naturally aren't launched next to where troops actually eat, sleep and pursue their daily trade but instead are moved from their storage place to launch sites in the event of an outbreak of combat, a procedure called "operational deployment".

The Taiwanese are also aware that China may define its "coastal area" differently from other nations. A 500-kilometer distance would then become longer, and the alleged locations of China's missile brigades in Jiangxi province would consequently not be considered as "across the Taiwan Strait along our southeast coast", even though each of them has Taiwan easily in its cross-hairs.

Another noteworthy statement made by Chen, whose military position means he has considerable sway on the planning and control of PLA operations in the event of war, was aimed at the US's Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).

The TRA is a domestic law which obliges US administrations to hinder any effort to determine the future of Taiwan other than by peaceful means, and explicitly binds Washington to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character as well as to maintain the US's capacity to come to Taiwan's help in the event of a PLA attack on Taiwan. Observers hold that the scrapping of the TRA would almost certainly enable Beijing to pressure Taipei into accepting unification. More than almost anything else, Beijing wants the TRA abolished.

Calling the law "hegemonic", Chen said: "Since I arrived in the United States, I've had the opportunity to talk to some members of the congress, and some of them told me that they also think it is time for the United States to review this legislation."

In the eyes of Glaser, this exhibits the general's wishful thinking. She dismissed claims that there was a trend towards abolishment of the TRA. "Many Democrats and Republicans assess that the TRA serves US interests. There's no growing trend that congressmen want to sell out Taiwan, and neither do I see that discussion taking place," said Glaser.

Among all the declarations made by Chen, Glaser found one intriguing - his answer to the question to what extend future arms sales to Taipei would affect the Sino-US relationship. Indicating Beijing's stance on the sale of F-16C/D aircraft, which Taipei has repeatedly requested, Chen said: "As to how bad the impact of US arms sales to Taiwan will be [on the state-to-state and military-to-military relations between China and the US], it would depend on the nature of the weapons sold to Taiwan."

This, according to Glaser, suggests that "Beijing would react more moderately" towards a mid-life upgrade of Taiwan's existing fleet of F-16A/Bs in comparison to a sale of brand-new F-16C/Ds. "But China will react to any arms sales to Taiwan, and senior Chinese officials have told us they oppose also the upgrade," she qualified.

With upgrade and proper maintenance, Taiwan's 146 F-16A/Bs could likely stay on for another 15 to 20 years and match China's fourth generation fighters, namely the J-10 and Su-27.

Glaser said Chen's comment that the Chinese reaction would be adjusted depending on the nature of the weapons sold could well have to do with China's domestic politics. This is because internally, the Chinese civilian leadership would have a hard time justifying why it idly watched punchy F-16C/Ds falling into the hands of Taiwanese "separatist forces". The latter are headed by former presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian and they would like to see cross-strait unification postponed until the twelfth of never. An upgrade of Taiwan's F-16A/Bs, by contrast, could domestically perhaps still be belittled by Beijing as Washington carrying out a rather harmless repair job.

"There's a risk here. One thing is that the Chinese government might not want to react strongly. But backlash from the public and the elite might force them to react stronger," said Glaser. Bearing in mind the coming leadership change in 2012, Glaser said that US arms sales to Taiwan could be very damaging to Chinese President Hu Jintao's legacy, which is an improvement in cross-strait relations.

"He could be criticized for occurrences like US arms sales or a power change in Taiwan. People on the mainland could criticize his policy of peaceful development," she said.

In terms of a concrete outcome, Chen's visit did succeed in inching the US and China closer together. Mullen was invited to make his first visit to China in his current position and agreed to go later this year.

Several agreements were announced, including a plan for the US and Chinese militaries to jointly conduct a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercise next year, and it was also agreed to make use of a special telephone link between Chen's and Mullen's offices.

Concerning the omnipresent Taiwan issue, it was not only the Chinese side that produced coded words. "As General Chen said, Secretary Clinton repeated and I would only re-emphasize, the United States policy supports a 'one China' policy. And I certainly share the view of the peaceful reunification of China," said Mullen.