俄罗斯从利比亚冲突和日本地震中获益World crises have a silver lining for ‘lucky’ Russia

Vladimir Putin can generally be relied on for chest-thumping quotes and he did not disappoint this week when he compared the UN resolution that cleared the way for air strikes on Libya to “medieval calls for crusades”.

俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)总能发出可供引用的豪言壮语，本周他也没有让人们失望——他把为空中打击利比亚扫清障碍的联合国决议比作“中世纪十字军东征的号令”。

As ever, there was a strong element of theatre in the Russian prime minister’s sound bite and in President Dmitry Medvedev’s later rebuke of Mr Putin’s remarks as “unacceptable”.

普京的这句广播讲话，以及稍后俄罗斯总统德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)批驳普京之说“不可接受”的言论，一如既往地充斥着浓厚的戏剧色彩。

Railing against Washington’s supposed love of military meddling abroad plays well with the ordinary Russians, Mr Putin’s main constituency. (Mr Medvedev targets a more sophisticated and international audience.)

在世人眼里，美国对海外军事干预一贯热爱有加，而抨击这种行为在普京的主要支持者——俄罗斯老百姓中间很有市场。（梅德韦杰夫针对的是见识更广、更具国际视野的听众。）

Yet for all the Putin bluster, Russia stands to do rather well out of the situation in Libya – and out of the other recent shock, Japan’s earthquake and nuclear crisis.

然而，尽管普京在那里大喊大叫，但俄罗斯肯定会大大受益于利比亚的局势——以及近期的另一场冲击：日本的地震和核危机。

Having the US and its allies tied down in a third military arena – a country of limited importance to Russia – suits Moscow as it continues to strengthen ties with neighbours such as Ukraine and Belarus that had earlier flirted with the west. And the Middle East unrest has pushed oil prices to about $115 a barrel, giving a boost to Russia’s economy.

在俄罗斯继续与早些时候和西方眉来眼去的乌克兰、白俄罗斯等邻国增进联系之际，美国及其盟友被栓在第三个军事舞台上——一个对俄罗斯没什么重要性的国家——符合俄罗斯的利益。而且，中东动荡已把油价推高到约每桶115美元，对俄罗斯经济是一个提振。

That calculus underlies Moscow’s decision to abstain at the UN Security Council last week when it might have been expected to use its veto.

上周在联合国安理会，当人们以为俄罗斯会行使否决权时，它却作出了弃权的决定，正是因为有着上述盘算。

Meanwhile, a backlash against nuclear power in Japan and Europe is set to boost long-term demand for Russian energy exports, especially gas. Little wonder that Russia’s stock market, which lagged behind the broader emerging markets recovery last year, is now close to two-and-a-half year highs.

另一方面，日本和欧洲掀起的反对核能的声浪，必将推高这些地区从俄罗斯进口能源、尤其是天然气的长期需求。难怪在去年新兴市场反弹行情中逊人一筹的俄罗斯股市如今已逼近两年半高位。

Admittedly, the Libyan war threatens some Russian business interests: $4bn in arms deals, and Russian Railways’ €2.2bn project to build a

诚然，利比亚战争威胁到了俄罗斯的一些商业利益：40亿美元的军火合同；以及俄罗斯国有铁路公司(Russian Railways)承建的总投资22亿欧元的利比亚苏尔特-班加西高铁项目。但是，这些损失比不上油价高涨带来的利益。经济学家们估计，年平均油价每上升10美元，俄罗斯的收入就会增加200亿美元。

high-speed Sirte-Benghazi railway. But their loss could be outstripped by the oil price gain. Economists reckon every $10 increase in the average annual oil price swells Russia’s revenues by $20bn.

鉴于议会和总统选举日益临近，克里姆林宫会很高兴有更大余力来提高养老金和公务员工资。这有助于化解阿拉伯式示威活动在俄罗斯境内上演的危险，无论这种危险有多么小。俄罗斯也正借助阿拉伯的示威浪潮来衬托自身形象——与中东和北非的能源供应国相比，俄罗斯是更加可靠的选择——以修补近年两度切断对乌克兰的天然气供应而造成的损害。

With parliamentary and presidential elections looming, the Kremlin will welcome the extra scope to raise pensions and public sector wages. That should help offset any danger, however small, of Russia seeing Arab-style protests itself. Russia is also using the Arab protests to present itself as a more reliable alternative to Middle East and north African energy suppliers, seeking to repair damage from its two gas shut-offs to Ukraine in recent years.

在俄罗斯对日本海啸的反应中，这种意图也是昭然若揭。普京很快就提议由俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)为日本供应更多液化天然气，以缓解能源短缺的局面。

The approach is evident, too, in its response to Japan’s tsunami. Mr Putin was quick to suggest that Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, should send more supplies of liquefied natural gas to Japan to ease energy shortages.

由于液化天然气余量不多，普京本周又提出了一个主意。Gazprom可以增加对欧洲的管道天然气供应量，这样原定运往欧洲的液化天然气船就可改道日本。

When little spare LNG could be found, Mr Putin this week pitched another idea. Gazprom could increase its pipeline gas supplies to Europe, so LNG cargoes destined for Europe could be redirected to Japan.

上述“交换”提议并没有得到热烈响应。不过从长远来看，增加对日本供应的前景是乐观的。分析师们表示，假设有10家日本工厂继续关闭，明年该国天然气的消费量就可能增长七分之一左右。

The response to his proposed gas “swap” has been lukewarm. But, longer term, prospects for increasing supplies to Japan are good. Analysts say that, assuming 10 Japanese plants remain shut, the country’s gas consumption could rise by about a seventh next year.

虽然俄罗斯毗邻日本的“萨哈林2号”(Sakhalin-2)油气田的产出，大多都要满足长期合同的要求，但日本需求上升有可能改变开采该地区其他油气田的经济效益。

While output from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 field near Japan is mostly committed under long-term contracts, increased Japanese demand could transform the economics of developing other reserves in the area.

同样，如果德国暂时关闭7座老化核电站的举措得到其他国家的效仿，考虑到可再生能源的成本，天然气可能成为最主要的替代品，而欧洲有四分之一的天然气由俄罗斯供应。

Similarly, if Germany’s decision to make seven older nuclear power plants idle is copied elsewhere, the cost of renewable energy is likely to make gas – of which Russia supplies a quarter of Europe’s needs – the main alternative.

不过反对核电的声浪只出现在西欧。作为俄罗斯核技术的传统市场，东欧国家大多表示将继续使用核电。这对俄罗斯原子集团公司(Rosatom)来说可是个好消息。Rosatom是俄罗斯国有企业，其目标是成为核能领域的Gazprom。

The nuclear backlash, however, is confined to the west. Europe’s eastern half, a traditional market for Russian nuclear technology, has largely pledged to stick with nuclear generation. That is good news for Rosatom, the state-owned group aiming to become the Gazprom of nuclear power.

日本发生海啸后短短几天，普京就签署了一项由俄罗斯在白俄罗斯建造一座反应堆的协议，梅德韦杰夫也同意推动俄罗斯在土耳其的核电站项目。这两个项目的价值分别为90亿美元和200亿美元。

Within days of Japan’s tsunami, Mr Putin signed a $9bn deal to build a Russian reactor in Belarus, while Mr Medvedev agreed to press ahead with a $20bn Russian plant in Turkey.

俄罗斯杰出的外交政策评论员谢尔盖•卡拉加诺夫(Sergei Karaganov)在近期的一篇报纸专栏文章中指出，经历了20世纪的重大灾难后，21世纪迄今为止是俄罗斯的“幸运”世纪。就2011年前3个月的情形来看，卡拉加诺夫或许是对的。

Sergei Karaganov, one of Russia’s top foreign policy commentators, suggested in a recent newspaper column that, after the catastrophes of the 20th century, the 21st had so far been Russia’s “lucky” century. For the first three months of 2011, Mr Karaganov may be right.

译者/杨远