黄金贵到用不起？

Gold jewellery loses its lustre as prices go off the scale

The UK’s Royal Mint is as busy as it has ever been in its 1,000-year history.

英国皇家铸币局(Royal Mint)一如上千年历史上的任何时候一样繁忙。

Sales of the popular gold sovereign coin have surged 400 per cent from last year, and November was “the biggest single month we’ve ever had in our entire history”, says Dave Knight, head of commemorative coins.

纪念币主管戴夫•奈特(Dave Knight)表示，颇受欢迎的主权金币的销量较去年飙升了400%，11月是“我们整个历史上销量最高的一个月”。

The world’s oldest coin maker is tooling up, buying a set of new hydraulic presses for its workshop near Cardiff in an attempt to keep pace with soaring demand.

这家全球最古老的铸币局正在添置装备，为卡迪夫附近的车间购买一套新的液压机，以跟上需求飙升的步伐。

About 100 miles east in Hatton Garden, the traditional centre of London’s jewellery industry, R Holt & Co is also investing in new technology, but with the opposite purpose: to reduce the amount of gold it is using.

在伦敦首饰业传统中心Hatton Garden以东约100英里，R Holt & Co也在投资新技术，但目的正好相反：减少黄金的使用量。

The contrasting behaviour of mint and jewellery maker shows how the 450 per cent rally in gold prices since 2001 has reshaped supply and demand for the yellow metal. While rising prices have drawn speculative investors to bullion, driving prices even higher, to a fresh nominal record of $1,430.95 a troy ounce on Tuesday, the jewellery industry has been searching for ways to cut its gold consumption.

铸币局和首饰制造商相反的行为表明，2001年以来金价大涨450%，已经改变了黄金的供求格局。尽管不断上涨的价格吸引了投机者购买黄金，将金价推升至更高水平，周二达到每盎司1430.95美元的名义新高，但首饰行业却在想方设法减少黄金消费。

Last year, investment demand overtook jewellery as the biggest source of gold buying for the first time in three decades. Nervousness in financial markets, economic uncertainty and fears that paper currencies could tumble in value have all drawn investors to gold coins, bars and exchange-traded funds backed by gold.

去年，投资需求30年来首次超过首饰行业，成为黄金的最大购买来源。金融市场的紧张情绪、经济的不确定性、对纸币价值可能会重挫的担心，都使得投资者把目光转向了金币、金条和以黄金为担保的交易所交易基金(ETF)。

But the sharp decline in gold jewellery consumption over the past 10 years raises an important question: if this demand for the precious metal is slowing, has the traditional physical backbone of the gold market been lost?

然而，过去10年金首饰消费的大幅下滑提出了一个重要问题：如果对黄金的这种需求正在下滑，那么黄金市场的传统实体支柱是否已经丧失？

“You’ve got to be a bit concerned [about the gold price] if investment demand unwinds,” says Walter de Wet, head of commodities research at Standard Bank. “That jewellery demand is just not there at the moment.”

“如果投资需求放缓，你必然会（对金价）感到有些担心，”标准银行(Standard Bank)大宗商品研究主管魏文德(Walter de Wet)表示。“首饰需求目前已不复存在。”

Pockets of strong gold jewellery demand remain, such as the market for wedding rings, or in some Asian and Middle Eastern countries where buying gold jewellery is seen as a form of investment.

对于黄金首饰需求旺盛的领域仍然存在，例如婚戒市场，或是一些将购买黄金饰品视为一种投资方式的亚洲和中东国家。

Industry experts, though, believe there has been a long-term shift away from gold jewellery, especially in the west, where people are selling more old gold items for scrap than buying new jewellery.

然而，行业专家相信，长期以来，人们对金首饰的兴趣一直在不断丧失，尤其是在西方，出售旧金饰换取散金的人数要多于购买新首饰的人。

“Some of the main jewellery manufacturers have turned into collectors,” says Scott Morrison, chief executive of Metalor, a Switzerland based precious metals refiner.

瑞士贵金属精炼商Metalor首席执行官斯科特•莫里森(Scott Morrison)表示：“一些主要首饰生产商已经变成了收藏者。”

At the cheap end of the market, pure gold jewellery has simply become unaffordable for consumers, especially in the wake of the financial crisis, prompting a switch to alternatives. Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy, says: “There has been a move to silver and non- precious metals.”

在市场的低端，消费者已买不起纯金首饰，特别是在此次金融危机之后，人们被迫转向了其它替代品。贵金属咨询公司GFMS执行董事长菲利普•克拉普维克(Philip Klapwijk)表示：“人们已转向白银和非贵金属。”

Fashion has driven jewellers away from gold, too. At the mid-market UK jewellery chain Ernest Jones, some of the best selling items contain little or no gold: a silver bracelet which can be accessorised with charms, many of which are made of stone rather than precious metals, or a leather necklace with a pendant made of silver.

时尚也在促使首饰商远离黄金。在英国中端市场珠宝连锁店Ernest Jones，一些销量最好的饰品只含有很少或根本不含黄金：可搭配小饰物的银手镯，其饰物很多是由石头制成，而不是贵金属；或者配有银吊坠的皮质项链。

“Jewellery buying is changing. Commodity price increases are just one of the factors in terms of what customers do with jewellery.” says Colin Wagstaffe, marketing director of Signet, which owns the Ernest Jones chain.

Ernest Jones连锁店所有者Signet的市场部主管科林•维格斯达夫(Colin Wagstaffe)表示：“首饰购买正在发生转变。大宗商品价格上涨只是影响消费者对首饰态度的因素之一。”

In future, he says, jewellery consumption “is going to be much more influenced by brands, by the look, and by alternative materials”.

他表示，未来的首饰消费“将更多受到品牌、外观及替代原料的影响”。

At the same time, smaller jewellers are focusing their efforts on the resurgent luxury end of the market, making fewer pieces with higher value and so using less gold.

与此同时，规模较小的首饰商则全力以赴，瞄准了复苏的最高端市场，生产价格更高、数量更少的首饰，因而减少了黄金用量。

“Rather than selling 10 products per two hours, we’ll sell one. There is a reduced volume but a higher turnover,” says Jason Holt, managing director of R Holt & Co.

R Holt & Co董事总经理詹森•霍特(Jason Holt)表示：“我们不会两小时销售10件产品，而会销售一件。量减少了，但营业额更高。”

Moreover, rising gold prices mean jewellers need more money to buy inventory, at a time when credit has been hard to come by for small businesses. R Holt & Co has recently bought a machine to make casts for its pieces of jewellery in order to minimise gold wastage.

另外，不断上涨的金价意味着，在小企业很难获得信贷的时候，首饰商却需要更多资金购买存货。为了尽可能减少黄金损耗，R Holt & Co最近购买了一台机器，用于生产首饰模具。

Jewellery is not the only traditional area of gold demand to be hit by high prices. The watch industry is struggling: Metalor has closed its business supplying gold to watchmakers because it “crashed”, Mr Morrison says.

首饰行业并不是唯一一个受到金价高企影响的传统黄金需求领域。莫里森表示，手表行业也是步履维艰：Metalor已关闭了为手表制造商供应黄金的业务，因为这项业务已经“垮了”。

Less gold is being used in dentistry as well. In a sign of how much gold teeth have fallen out of fashion, when Kanye West, the US rap musician, recently decided to add some sparkle to his smile, he chose to replace his bottom teeth with diamonds.

牙医行业的黄金使用量也在减少。证明金牙已经失宠的一个例子是，当美国饶舌歌手坎耶•维斯特(Kanye West)最近决定要让自己的笑容更闪亮时，他选择把自己的下牙换成了钻石假牙。

For some, all this is a warning signal for prices. Mr Klapwijk, of GFMS, says: “If we use usual metrics to look at the gold market and we look at the scale of investor buying relative to the bread-and-butter demand from jewellery, we can see a market that is at some extremes.”

在一些人看来，所有这些都是对金价的一个警告信号。GFMS的克拉普维克表示：“如果我们用通常的标准来看待黄金市场，并看看相对于首饰行业基本需求的投资者购买规模，我们就可以看到，市场已走向极端。”

That does not rule out further price increases. Mr Klapwijk believes investment demand for gold will drive prices to a record between $1,600 and $1,650 an ounce next year.

这并不排除金价存在进一步上涨的可能。克拉普维克认为，黄金的投资需求明年将把金价推升至每盎司1600美元至1650美元的创纪录高位。

But gold, more than ever, will depend on investor sentiment rather than supply and demand. And, says Mr Morrison, jewellery is not going to pick up the slack if investment falters.

然而，黄金将比以往任何时候都更依赖于投资者的人气，而非供求。莫里森表示，如果投资需求下降，首饰行业不会填补上供需缺口。

译者/梁艳裳