中国的铜是如何过剩的？Copper’s rise slowed by Chinese oversupply

It would be easy to assume the world was about to run out of copper.

人们很容易就会以为，全球铜资源即将枯竭。

The price of the red metal, a vital cog in the global economy found in almost every building and electrical circuit, has soared past previous records to hit $10,000 a tonne earlier this year. And predictions persist that it could rise above $13,000 by year end.

铜是全球经济中一个至关重要的纽带，几乎每一幢建筑物和每一个电路都会用到它。今年早些时候，铜价连破数个历史纪录，飙升至每吨1万美元。预言铜价在年底前可能突破1.3万美元的声音一直没有断过。

But in Waigaoqiao, which as Shanghai’s port is the gateway to the largest consumer of the metal, copper is abundant.

但在作为中国铜进口门户的上海港口外高桥，却堆积着大量的铜。中国目前是世界第一大铜消费国，消耗着全球40%的铜供应。

The increasingly apparent oversupply of copper in China, consumer of 40 per cent of the world’s supply, has made investors nervy. Prices are down $750 a tonne from their peak in February and last week dipped below $9,000 for the first time in three months. Some physical copper merchants are gloomier still, talking of a disconnect between “lacklustre” physical markets and their paper counterparts.

铜供过于求的现象在中国越来越明显，令投资者惶惶不安。铜价已较2月份的高点下跌750美元，上周跌破每吨9000美元，为3个月来首次。一些现货铜商甚至更为悲观，他们表示，“死气沉沉的”现货市场与期货市场之间断开了联系。

“Everyone has been looking at this as a very bullish year and the evidence so far has not supported it,” says Richard Wilson, chairman of Brook Hunt, a consultancy. “It requires a bit of a leap of faith.”

咨询公司Brook Hunt的董事长理查德•威尔逊(Richard Wilson)表示：“所有人都认为今年的势头会非常乐观，但迄今的证据尚不支持这一点。它需要一点信念的‘飞跃’。”

One reason for the availability of copper in Chinese ports is its widespread use as collateral in lending deals. It has become a cliche among traders that copper is no longer just an industrial metal – it is also a financial asset. Usually that is meant to refer to western speculators, but it is equally true in China.

在中国港口能够找到铜的一个原因在于，铜被广泛用作借贷协议中的抵押品。交易员们常说：铜已不再只是一种工业金属，它还是一种金融资产。通常这指的是西方投机者，但在中国越来越同样如此。

Chinese companies – including some with no connection to the physical copper market, such as property developers – have imported copper to gain access to cash, as a means of bypassing China’s stringent caps on lending.

中国企业，包括一些与现货铜市场毫无关系的企业，例如房地产开发商，都在通过进口铜来获得资金，由此绕开中国严格的放贷上限。

According to Yingxi Yu of Barclays Capital in Singapore, such companies use short-term letters of credit from local banks to import copper, which is then sold to generate cash for other investments.

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻新加坡的分析师Yingxi Yu表示，这些企业利用当地银行的短期信用证进口铜，接着卖出，以便为其它投资项目筹资。

These import financing deals have brought more copper into the Chinese market, exacerbating a period of weakness.

这些进口融资协议让更多铜进入了中国市场，令疲软的市场进一步恶化。

China’s economy may still be booming, leading to healthy industrial demand for the red metal. But, as copper prices spiked and credit availability in China has tightened, many companies have been cutting back on purchases, trimming their inventory levels.

中国经济也许仍在蓬勃发展，因此对于铜有着旺盛的工业需求。但随着铜价飙升和中国收紧信贷，许多企业一直在减少购买，降低库存水平。

At the same time, there has also been a surge in scrap copper in China driven by the record prices, further increasing supply.

与此同时，创纪录的高价还导致中国废铜激增，进一步增加了供应。

Those factors have led to a sharp increase in stocks held in warehouses. Stocks in bonded warehouses, where the metal can be held before taxes have been paid, are estimated to have risen to about 600,000 tonnes from 300,000-400,000 tonnes in mid-December, while exchange inventories have jumped by about 160,000 tonnes – almost exclusively in China and nearby South Korea.

这些因素都导致了仓库存货的急剧增加。据估计，海关保税仓库——铜在缴税之前可以存放于此——内的存货已从12月中旬的30万至40万吨增至60万吨左右，而交易所库存已增加了约16万吨。这些增加部分几乎全部在中国和临近的韩国。

That oversupply, traders say, has seen shipments to China diverted to other parts of Asia, while some metal is being re-exported from China, as companies in import financing deals start to lose money.

交易员表示，供应过剩已促使发往中国的铜转向亚洲其它地区，而随着签署进口融资交易的企业开始亏损，部分铜正从中国再出口。

But the state of the Chinese market – and so the outlook for copper prices – divides opinion sharply. Bulls argue that the weakness in China has been driven by short-term factors, such as a jump in scrap supply late last year and destocking by manufacturers. Therefore, they say, China will soon need to return to the market, drawing down stocks and reawakening concerns of an impending shortage. Bears retort that Chinese buyers are unlikely to buy in great quantities until prices drop a good deal further – and in the meantime they have plentiful stocks.

但对于中国市场的现状，乃至铜价的前景，市场观点存在严重分歧。看涨者称，中国市场的疲弱受到短期因素的驱动，比方说，去年末废铜供应激增以及制造企业降低库存。因此，他们认为，中国很快就需要重返市场，从而拉低库存，再次引发人们对于市场短缺迫在眉睫的担忧。看空者反驳道，在价格深幅下跌以前，中国买家不太可能大量买进——与此同时，他们有着充足的库存。

The disagreement has made the London Metal Exchange a battleground in recent weeks, with prominent hedge funds on either side of the trade.

这种意见分歧让伦敦金属交易所(LME)在最近几周变成了战场，交易双方都汇集了一些著名的对冲基金。

The consensus still remains broadly bullish, with analysts arguing that the market could turn in the next couple of months. Max Layton, base metals analyst at Macquarie, says that “when credit does get easier, the snap back should be pretty dramatic”, meaning investors should see any price correction as “a great and long awaited, buying opportunity”.

市场共识仍是总体看涨，分析师认为，市场在未来几个月就有可能转向。麦格理(Macquarie)贱金属分析师马克斯•莱顿(Max Layton)表示，“当信贷确实变宽松后，反弹应该会相当显著”，这意味着投资者应将一切价格调整都看作是“一个不可错过且期待已久的买入机会”。

In the bulls’ favour is the state of mine supply, which has seen a spate of setbacks, with production at four of the world’s top 12 mines set to drop significantly this year. CRU and Brook Hunt, two leading consultancies, see only minimal mine supply growth in 2010 and 2011 put together. “It’s a real possibility that mine production falls this year – we only need some unforeseen major disruption,” says Paul Robinson, head of non-ferrous metals at CRU.

对看涨者有利的是连连受挫的铜矿供应。今年，全球最大的12座铜矿中的4座定然将大幅减产。两家领先咨询机构——英国商品研究所(CRU)和Brook Hunt都认为，去年和今年加起来的矿山供应增长几乎可忽略不计。CRU有色金属业务负责人保罗•罗宾逊(Paul Robinson)表示：“今年的确存在矿山产量下降的可能性——就差一些意想不到的重大事故。”

Fundamentally, however, some believe that the unprecedented prices over the past few months may already have done their job, trimming demand and stimulating higher scrap supplies.

但从根本上讲，一些人相信，过去几个月空前高涨的铜价可能已经起到了效果：降低了需求，刺激了废铜供应的增加。

In that case, the large speculative investment in copper could withdraw en masse – leading to a potentially precipitous fall in prices. As one seasoned investor puts it: “A supercyle does not go in a straight line.”

如果是这样的话，对铜的大规模投机性投资可能会集体撤出，从而可能导致铜价暴跌。正如一位投资老手所言：“超级周期不会走直线。”

译者/陈云飞