埃及动荡：达沃斯的私下热门话题Tunisia forces everyone to re-examine the old certainties

On Thursday morning in Davos, the Financial Times co-hosted a breakfast with HSBC to discuss emerging markets. As the guests gathered round the croissants, however, one speaker was missing: Youssef Boutros Ghali, finance minister of Egypt, had to withdraw at the last minute due to “unexpected” events.

上周四早晨在达沃斯，英国《金融时报》与汇丰银行(HSBC)联合举办了一次早餐会，讨论新兴市场问题。然而，在嘉宾们聚集在餐桌前时，有一位演讲者却没有在场：埃及财长优素夫•布特罗斯•加利(Youssef Boutros Ghali)因“意外”事件不得不在最后一刻缺席此次早餐会。

It was a telling metaphor, not just for the 2,500-odd delegates at this year’s World Economic Forum, but for global investors too. When the WEF holds its annual meeting in Davos, the programme is planned with seemingly-clear ideas about the big themes of the day. This year, for example, the hot topics were supposed to include food security, financial reform and the euro; and, of course, the impressive rise of the emerging markets, which are now generating so much optimism among Western investors and businesses.

无论是对参加今年世界经济论坛(WEF)的2500多名代表而言，还是对全球投资者而言，这件事都生动地说明了一个问题。世界经济论坛在达沃斯召开年会时，会议议程是按照涉及当今世界重大主题的貌似明确的观点来设计的。例如，今年的热点话题据信应包括粮食安全、金融改革和欧元；当然，还包括新兴市场令人惊叹的崛起——这种崛起如今在西方投资者和企业当中引发了强烈的乐观情绪。

Yet, most years at Davos something unexpectedly throws a spanner in the planning works; this year, the issue being furtively debated in the corridors – albeit barely mentioned in the official programme – is the political turmoil afoot in Tunisia and Egypt.

然而，在多数达沃斯年会上，总有一些意外事件会破坏计划中的讨论；今年，人们在走廊里暗中辩论的话题是突尼斯和埃及正在上演的政治动荡——尽管这个话题在官方议程上几乎没有提及。

The official rhetoric now emanating from the region’s bankers, business leaders and politicians is that this turmoil will be relatively short-lived and “contained”. After all, the argument goes, the countries across the Middle East differ greatly from each other (let alone the rest of the emerging markets). And being optimistic, it is possible to argue that the current political upheaval could be good for the region’s economic growth in the long run, by forcing structural reform. Or as Masood Ahmed, Middle East director of the International Monetary Fund, observed on Thursday: “There is now rising concern about the chronic levels of youth unemployment in the Middle East, and these events have shown that governments need to address this. If they do, that could unlock human resources and really boost growth.” Investors, in other words, might almost give a cheer.

目前，从中东地区银行家、商界领袖和政治家们那里传来的官方论调是，这场动荡持续的时间将相对较短，而且影响“有限”。这种观点认为，中东各国之间毕竟有着很大的差异（更不用说其它新兴市场国家了）。而且乐观点儿来看，我们或许可以认为，目前的政治动荡可能有利于中东地区的长远经济增长，因为它强行推动了结构性改革。或者正如国际货币基金组织(IMF)中东部主任马苏德•艾哈迈德(Masood Ahmed)上周四所说的那样：“现在，中东年轻人失业率长期居高不下越来越令人感到担忧。这些事件表明，政府必须解决这个问题。如果他们真的解决了这个问题，那可能会解放人力资源、真正促进增长。”换句话说，投资者几乎可以为之欢呼了。

But, in the short term, at least the events also have a notably darker side as far as markets are concerned. After all, what the shock in Tunisia has in effect done is demonstrate that not only do emerging markets remain exposed to political risk – but investors now live in a world that is increasingly unpredictable in both an economic and political sense. Or to use market jargon, what the Middle East is now demonstrating is the potency of “fat tails” (or events that seem so unlikely to occur that they are usually ignored, until they suddenly strike with a vengeance). This psychological twist matters now, given what has happened in the past four years. Before 2007, developments in the global economy appeared so calm and predictable the period was sometimes dubbed the age of “great moderation”. But (as I have noted in earlier columns), the collapse of Lehman Brothers – not to mention the events in Greece, Iceland or Ireland – shattered that complacency in a dramatic way. More specifically, in 2008 Western investors discovered, often for the first time in their lives, that systems and institutions are not always as permanent as they seem. Sometimes the worst case scenario plays out.

但短期来看，就市场而言，这些事件至少还有着明显较为悲观的一面。毕竟，突尼斯爆发的政治动荡实际上证明了一点：不仅新兴市场仍面临政治风险，而且投资者现在所处的世界在经济和政治两个层面上都变得越来越不可预测。或者套用市场行话来说，中东现在所证明的是“肥尾”的力量（肥尾指这样一类事件：它们在突然变本加厉袭来之前看似发生几率极低、通常不被人们重视）。鉴于过去4年所发生的事情，这种心理转变现在具有重大意义。2007年以前，全球经济的发展似乎相当平静且可预测，这段时期有时被称为“大稳健”(great moderation)时期。但（正如我在之前的专栏文章里所指出的那样），雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的破产（更别提希腊、冰岛或爱尔兰爆发的事件了）戏剧性地打破了这种自满。更具体地说，2008年，西方投资者（大多是平生第一次）发现，有些体系和机构并不总像看上去那样能够永远不倒。有时，成为现实的是最糟糕的可能情况。

These days, most of that shock appears to have faded on the surface; equity markets, for example, have rallied. But irrespective of the outward calm, memories of 2008 remain fresh; it does not take much to make investors feel nervous again – or start fearing that another “worst case” could soon play out in a world still plagued by dis-equillibrium.

近来从表面上看，此次金融危机造成的大部分冲击已经消退；例如，股市已然回升。但抛开这表面上的平静，人们对2008年仍记忆犹新；只要略有风吹草动，投资者就会再度感到紧张，或者开始担心另一个“最糟糕的情况”可能很快就会在这个仍为失衡所累的世界里出现。

After all, what is striking about Tunisia, say, is that the problems of rising youth unemployment and political anger have been evident for years; but they were hitherto widely ignored, as the region seemed able to defy economic and political gravity.

毕竟，突尼斯最引人注目的一点可以说是，年轻人失业率不断上升和民众对政府感到不满的问题多年来一直相当明显，但人们过去却一直未予以重视，因为该地区似乎能够对经济和政治危险免疫。

But now gravity has reasserted itself; just as it did two years ago with respect to subprime loans, or Greek debt. So the question uneasily haunting some observers is where else might gravity reassert itself too? “You start looking at places like Indonesia, or China, and ask: Do we really know what is happening there?” confesses a senior business leader. Or as Simon Williams, an HSBC Middle East analyst, observes: “What happened in Tunisia took everyone by surprise. It has forced us to all re-examine the old certainties [in the region].”

但现在，危险再次显示出自己的威力，就像两年前在次贷或希腊债务危机时一样。因此，让一些观察人士感到困扰和不安的是，危险还可能在哪里显示出自己的威力？一位资深企业领袖坦承：“你开始把目光转向印尼或中国这类国家，并自问：我们真的知道那里正在发生什么吗？”或者就像汇丰银行中东部分析师西蒙•威廉姆斯(Simon  Williams)所言：“突尼斯发生的事件出乎所有人的意料。这迫使我们纷纷去重新审视（该地区）那些曾经是确然无疑的事情。”

Now, this anxiety is not serious enough to damp the party mood in Davos entirely: as Martin Wolf, my colleague, observed on Thursday, the dominant tone remains optimistic. Tunisia is very small. But it is worth remembering that the mood in early 2010 was also quite upbeat – until the problems in Greece caused a psychological shock. “When Greece happened last spring, our clients froze – they just couldn’t bear the uncertainty,” recalls the head of one Wall Street bank. Little wonder, then, that a recent survey from PwC found chief executives were uneasy about the macro-economic and political outlook; right now, that looks rational indeed.

如今，这种忧虑还没有严重到全面影响达沃斯欢乐气氛的程度：正如我的同事马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)上周四所说的那样，主旋律仍是乐观。突尼斯毕竟是个很小的国家。但我们有必要记得，2010年初的气氛也相当乐观，直到希腊危机引发心理冲击为止。某华尔街银行的负责人回忆道：“当希腊去年春天出现问题时，我们的客户被惊呆了，他们根本承受不了那种不确定性。”所以说，难怪普华永道(PwC)最近的一份调查发现，首席执行官们对宏观经济与政治前景感到不安；现在想想，这种不安似乎的确合乎逻辑。