Strategic dependency on US still Japan's Achilles' heel

(Global Times)

08:12, September 27, 2011

Illustration: Liu Rui
Last summer, when a Japanese friend came for a visit, we had a long discussion about Japan. I related my impression of the country and what I see as its merits and shortcomings. But my main argument was that Japan needs to put in more effort in strategic planning.

For instance, Japanese cars had a large share of the high-end auto market in the 80s. In Beijing, brands such as Toyota and Nissan were generally considered luxury cars. Japanese cars were usually associated with being functional, reliable, and fuel-efficient, which were qualities Chinese buyers particularly valued at that time. 

Upon the request of Beijing, while I was working for the Chinese Embassy in Japan, I tried to get in touch with some key players in the auto industry to negotiate the possibility of joint ventures. But due to their lack of interest, all the talks we had proved unfruitful. I remember distinctly that when I was in the process of communicating with Nissan, who seemed diplomatic and responsive, they were only willing to commit to import-export deals, not the production and design arrangements we were more interested in. 

In the end, Chinese State-owned enterprises ended up striking deals with European and US companies. More strategically insightful, European and American companies showed great enthusiasm for the Chinese market. Today they have benefitted greatly as a result. Japanese companies did not realize their miscalculation until the Chinese market became largely dominated by European and US brands, but it was already too late. The lack of vision and lack of confidence in the Chinese market cost the Japanese auto industry a great deal, but they seem to have learned little.

I recently came across a news article on the closing of a Nissan production plant; I can’t help thinking about the business venture I proposed two decades ago. If only they had been more prudent in decision-making and thought ahead before cutting off the deal, it could have eventually been a win-win situation. And maybe, by saving the auto industry it might also have saved the country from the post-bubble recession. 
When I talked to my friend about the lack of strategic vision in Japan, I expected to get some answers about the Japanese character or similar. To my surprise, my friend suggested that the problem was that Japanese relied on the US for their strategy. I wasn’t sure about his answer. 

Yet a few months later, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated that the Diaoyu Islands issue is well within the range of the Treaty of Security and Safeguard. A new round of conflict seriously damaged the Sino-Japanese relationship, which had been recovering, against the background of the US “return to East Asia.” 

“Clinton’s speech gave us courage and the determination to deepen bilateral cooperation,” the Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs gratefully commented. It wasn’t until then that I realized the correctness of my friend’s puzzling answer. I began to feel sympathy for the Japanese, and for their lack of courage to deal with external affairs until powerful allies gave a commitment.

The most important thing, in my opinion, is for Japan to break away from the wing of the US and find the most suitable path of development under the guidance of its strategic planning. The country was once considered as a role model after rising from the debris of World War II and I sincerely hope that the country will independently carry out a long-term plan that can ensure a peaceful and prosperous co-existence along with its neighbors. 

The author is a former diplomat in Japan and a member of the Academy of Sino-Japan Relations.


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