钢铁熔点是多少度:It is hard to manage well the Sino-US military relationship

来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/28 18:06:12

It is hard to manage well the Sino-US military relationship


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2011-7-16 15:11
Adm. Mike Mullen, visiting China this week, took a close-up look at a Chinese Su-27 fighter jet in Jining.

Mike Mullen has gone for few days after his visit to China. Both China and America show their sincerity on the military mutual trust and cooperation, and Mullen even paid a visit to China's most secret army - PLA's 2nd Artillery Army. However, talking about the military relationship between two armies, that is not that easy any more.


During three days in China this week, the top American military officer, Adm. Mike Mullen, exchanged warm pledges with his Chinese counterpart to improve the reliably fractious relationship between the two forces. He watched Chinese Su-27 fighters barrel roll over an air base, saw a Chinese counterterrorism exercise in a stifling bunker beneath an army post and squeezed into a Chinese submarine at a naval base.


By the time Admiral Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, departed on Thursday morning, one might never have suspected that each side bases its military planning on the prospect that the other might be the enemy.


They do, however, and that reality hung like a dark cloud over the visit, the first such meeting in four years here in Beijing. It is making rapprochement between the world’s leading military power and its fastest-rising one a fiendishly difficult task — even as the president of each nation says he wants to achieve precisely that.


As the United States military contemplates the future and in particular a newly powerful Asia, its ever more crucial relationship with China is being tugged in opposite directions.


On the one hand, analysts say, China’s military ambitions are understandable. The country’s global trade footprint and its reliance on foreign fuel and raw materials justify building a sophisticated and far-flung military force to secure its interests, just as the United States has done.


But on the other hand, many American analysts view China’s military overhaul as the core of an effort to rein in American military power in the western Pacific. In this view, the antiship missile, aircraft carrier and much of the other sophisticated hardware China is developing are intended as a counterforce to the United States Navy’s Seventh Fleet, which has dominated Pacific waters for a half-century or more.


“It’s not that we need another enemy like the Soviet Union,” Bonnie S. Glaser, a senior fellow in Chinese security policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said in an interview. “We’re responding to measures that China is taking, and to the unwillingness of China to sit down and tell us what they’re doing and what missions these new platforms and weapons are intended to achieve.”


From an American standpoint, the Chinese have been ambiguous about their motivations. In January, fresh from a summit meeting with President Obama in Washington, President Hu Jintao made it clear that the People’s Liberation Army, the overseer of all Chinese forces, needs to build trust with the Pentagon.


Yet the Chinese army — not to mention large factions in China’s bureaucracy, its leadership and the all-powerful Communist Party — regard the United States as determined to thwart China’s rightful emergence as a global power.


They note that the United States has shifted the bulk of its aircraft carriers from the Atlantic to the Pacific, that it recently strengthened military agreements with Singapore and Australia, that it is courting China’s rival, India, and that it has sought to intervene diplomatically in the South China Sea, where China and most of its neighbors have experienced bitter territorial disputes.



They also note that the United States has rejected demands to scale back aerial and ocean reconnaissance of China’s eastern border on the Pacific. Nor will it revise a longstanding Congressional mandate to sell weapons to Taiwan. China has all but set the resolution of both issues as a precondition for genuine trust between the two militaries.


And so the Chinese are building what they call an entirely defensive force, although one that includes weapons that exist primarily to strike American military targets.


Admiral Mullen, in his visit to China, said repeatedly that American actions in the Pacific were merely a part of decades of involvement in the region that did not pose a threat to China. In a speech at the National Defense University in Washington in May, Gen. Chen Bingde, the commanding officer of the Chinese forces, said that his country’s military upgrade could not hope to match American technological might, and that China “never intends to challenge the U.S.”


But on both sides of the Pacific, suspicions inevitably rise every time one side unveils a new weapon or cements an old alliance.


Some American analysts say the two nations’ moves and countermoves could doom any chance for a true military and diplomatic accommodation. Others say the United States could be forced into another arms race — except that this time, unlike during the cold war, it would be China that has billions to spend on new weapons and the United States that might be forced to choose between guns and butter. (New York Times) 8 0
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2# > A < Posted  2011-7-16 17:01  Only show this user's posts Quote from the article:
Some American analysts say the two nations’ moves and countermoves could doom any chance for a true military and diplomatic accommodation. Others say the United States could be forced into another arms race — except that this time, unlike during the cold war, it would be China that has billions to spend on new weapons and the United States that might be forced to choose between guns and butter. (New York Times)
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America's per capita GDP is some $50,000 for a total GDP of $15 trillion based on a total population of 300 million.  If China can achieve a per capita GNP of some 200,000 yuan by 2040 then it would have a total GNP of 300 trillion yuan based on a total population of some 1.5 billion.  If the exchange rate is 3 yuan per dollar then China's GNP in dollar terms is $100 trillion.  If China allocate 2% of its $100 trillion GNP for military, then that would be $2 trillion.  America would have to allocate more than 13% of its GDP to equal China's military spending.  While China can comfortably afford 2% of its GDP for military, America would experience catastrophic economic collapse if it must allocate 13% of its GDP to military.  Over time America's educational system, its R&D, its infrastructure, and many other essential services will all decline.  

Given that kind of scenario, America cannot continue to arms race with China.  The only alternative is to establish good relationship with China now.  It can build up a large reservoir of goodwill that will assure peace and mutually beneficial security.  America can then spend its money to build better schools, build more hospital, do more R&D to advance its technologies to raise the productivity of its people to give them a better life.   That is the only smart thing for the Americans to do.  For now it must immediately confirm China's sovereignty over S. China Sea and Diaoyu Island and tell the Filipinos, the Vietnamese, the Malays and the Brunie sultan and the Japanese that they must stop making false claims on China's sovereign territories.  Then the Americans would have the friendship of the Chinese people.
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