赛尔号刷vip:How much possibility will China surpass US in...

来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/28 19:23:39

How much possibility will China surpass US in 2016?

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2011-4-27 10:31


IMF: China 'No. 1 economy by 2016'


International organizations appear to be competing as to which one can conjure up the most impressive scenario of China's rising economic clout, but the boldest version to date allegedly belongs to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which predicts Beijing will take a mere five years to become the world's largest economy.


As bets continue on how soon China will take the crown, some economists poured cold water on such projections, calling them flattery that mask the true gap between the Chinese and US economies.


Having produced just 2.2 percent of the world's economic output in 1980 at the outset of its reform and opening-up period, China's share of the world economy had risen to 7 percent by 2000.


It now stands at 14 percent and is expected to top the list by 2016 with 18 percent of the total amount, with the US down on 17.7 percent, according to the IMF predictions.


This transformation will see China become able to produce more in a fortnight by 2016 than it did in a year when the reforms began.



While another voice can be heard:

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2011-4-27 10:34


Boom vs Doom: is Roubini right on China?


It probably comes as no surprise that Nouriel Roubini – also known as Dr Doom – is bearish on China and its current growth model. Based on “two trips” to China recently the good doctor has come up with a devastating prognosis.

Here’s a taste of his views on China, as first published on Project Syndicate:


“China is rife with overinvestment in physical capital, infrastructure and property. To a visitor, this is evident in sleek but empty airports and bullet trains (which will reduce the need for the 45 planned airports), highways to nowhere, thousands of colossal new central and provincial government buildings, ghost towns and brand-new aluminium smelters kept closed to prevent global prices from plunging.”


“Eventually, most likely after 2013, China will suffer a hard landing. All historical episodes of excessive investment – including East Asia in the 1990s – have ended with a financial crisis and/or a long period of slow growth.”

His assessment of the government’s latest five-year plan (2011-2015) is equally gloomy.





So, how is it possible for China to surpass US in economy in 2016?


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