埃及革命的下一个目标：开发商？Focus turns to land deals fortunes

Billions of dollars in Egyptian land deals over the past 20 years are coming under scrutiny by Egypt’s revolutionaries, amid a worldwide hunt for assets stashed away by former president Hosni Mubarak.

在各方在全球搜寻埃及前总统胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)藏匿的财产之际，过去20年间埃及土地交易产生的巨额财富正受到埃及革命者的密切关注。

A real-estate boom which built satellite cities around Cairo and developed the Red Sea coast created vast fortunes for politically connected businessmen, many of whom allegedly received very generous terms for land which was allocated without competitive?tenders.

房地产繁荣时期，开罗周边兴建起了卫星城，红海海滨也得到开发，为拥有政界人脉的商人创造了巨额财富，据称其中许多人以非常优惠的条件，在没有其他竞标者的情况下拿到了土地。

Now many of these deals are likely to be re-examined by whatever political leadership takes Mr Mubarak’s place. Egyptian activists and lawyers said they hoped to revive dormant corruption cases and launch new ones.

现在，无论由哪一个政治领导层接替穆巴拉克，这些交易中有许多可能被重新审查。埃及活动人士和律师表示，他们希望重开遭到搁置的腐败案件，并提起新的诉讼。

Negad El-Borai, a lawyer specialising in anti-graft lawsuits, said: “We hope that because of these new circumstances, the public prosecutor’s office will work hard on these cases.”

专门从事反贪污诉讼的律师内加德•波莱(Negad El-Borai)表示：“我们希望，面对新的形势，检察院将努力追查这些案件。”

In recent days corruption investigations have focused on several former cabinet officials, including the former prime minister, former interior minister, former ministers of tourism, housing, and trade and industry, who have been all banned from travelling outside Egypt, according to state TV news on Saturday.

最近几天，腐败调查的焦点是几位前内阁官员，包括前总理、前内务部长、前旅游部长、前住房部长及前贸易和工业部长。据埃及官方电视台上周六报道，这些前高官已被禁止出境。

Switzerland’s government has ordered its banks to freeze assets of the Mubarak family, while the UK’s serious fraud office is looking into allegations that profits of corruption may have been stashed in London banks. Sources close to the former regime say that the figures being bandied about by Egyptian demonstrators, convinced that the Mubarak family had accumulated $40bn- $70bn of wealth, are wildly exaggerated. “That figure is higher than the King of Saudi Arabia and the emir of Kuwait combined,” said the head of one Egyptian bank. He said $2bn-3bn was “a bit more realistic”.

瑞士政府已经命令该国银行冻结穆巴拉克家族的资产，英国严重欺诈办公室(Serious Fraud Office)也正在调查有关腐败所得可能藏匿在伦敦银行的指控。埃及抗议者相信，穆巴拉克家族聚敛的财富高达400亿美元到700亿美元，但接近前政权的消息人士称，这些数字极为夸大。埃及一家银行的负责人认为，“这个数字比沙特阿拉伯国王和科威特埃米尔的财富加起来都多。”他透露，20亿到30亿美元“更现实一点。”

Lucrative land deals are thought to be at the centre of this wealth. Jan Pawel Hasman, real estate analyst at EFG-Hermes, the Egyptian investment bank, said “We’re entering a phase where depending on how populist the new political climate is, we may see more attacks on the businessmen who were the drivers of the real estate boom,” he said. “Much of the wealth in the country over the last 20 years has been made on land.”

利润丰厚的土地交易被认为是这些财富的来源。埃及投资银行EFG-Hermes房地产分析师贾恩•帕维尔•哈斯曼(Jan Pawel Hasman)表示，“我们即将进入一个新阶段，取决于新的政治气候有多么民粹，推动房地产繁荣的商人们可能会受到攻击。”他补充说：“过去20年期间，国内有相当大一部分财富是靠土地得来的。”

Many of the biggest land deals in the country were made as direct allocations by the government without competitive tenders, and for low prices.

埃及最大的土地交易中，有许多是政府直接划拨的，没有其他竞标者，成交价极低。

“Land was sold for as little as $1 per square metre,” said Hamdi Fakhrany, a Cairo lawyer who last year launched several lawsuits against the government, claiming that laws had been violated in the awarding of vast tracts of land.

开罗律师哈姆迪•法赫拉尼(Hamdi Fakhrany)透露，“土地售价有时低到每平米仅1美元。”他去年对政府提起多起诉讼，称划拨大量土地的行为违反了法律。

One of the projects named in the lawsuits is Madinaty, an area to the east of Cairo developed by Talaat Moustafa Group, which also developed Al Rehab, another east Cairo enclave. In both cases much of the land was awarded without competitive tender and payment was in kind – the government agency, which sold the land, was paid in finished plots.

这些诉讼中提到的一个项目是Madinaty，该地区位于开罗以东，由塔拉特•穆斯塔法(Talaat Moustafa)集团开发，该集团还开发了另一个开罗东部的项目Al Rehab。在这两个项目中，大量土地划拨时没有其他竞标者，购地费用以实物抵付，即开发商向出售土地的政府部门提供完工后的地块。

Another lawsuit filed by Mr Fakhrany claims that former housing minister Ahmed al-Maghrabi owns a stake in Palm Hills Developments, a real estate developer, which was awarded several lucrative development contracts by the same ministry. While he was a minister, he was credited with reforming land allocation procedures and introducing competitive auctions. Mr Maghrabi could not be reached for comment; Palm Hills did not respond to requests by e-mail and telephone. He was last week subject to a travel ban outside Egypt.

法赫拉尼提起的另一起诉讼指控，前住房部长艾哈迈德•马格拉比(Ahmed al-Maghrabi)在房地产开发商棕榈山开发公司(Palm Hills Developments)中持有股份，而就是这家企业从该部收到了若干笔利润丰厚的建设项目合同。在担任部长期间，马格拉比因改革土地分配程序，引入竞争性拍卖而获得好评。记者未能联络到马格拉比请其置评，通过电子邮件和电话向棕榈山公司发出的采访请求未获回应。马格拉比上周已被禁止出境。

Political ties are an important ingredient of business success in Egypt. One big land developer, SODIC Real Estate Development, has the father-in-law of Mr Mubarak’s son Ala’a as chairman of its board.

在埃及，政治关系是取得商业成功的一个重要因素，如大型地产开发商SODIC房地产开发公司(SODIC Real Estate Development)的董事长是穆巴拉克之子阿拉(Ala’a)的岳父。

Hisham Kassem, a publisher and analyst, said the Mubarak regime used land as a tool not just to favour its allies, but to control a private sector that it feared could become too politically influential if it was independent of government.

出版人和分析人士希沙姆•卡西姆(Hisham Kassem)称，穆巴拉克政权将土地作为工具，不仅用于向盟友施予恩惠，也用于控制私营部门，担心如果私营部门独立于政府，可能会有太大政治影响力。

But the developers say that the huge margins they have made on paper – the difference between buying land for $1-$3 a square meter and selling it for $100 – need to be judged against the massive risks they take and the huge investments they are making.

但开发商们表示，虽然从纸面上看他们取得了十分巨大的利润率——土地买入价在1到3美元/平米之间，卖出价则为100美元/平米，但外界在评判时，需要考虑他们承担的巨大风险和做出的大量投资。

“Yes, these margins are perceived as high, but how many years of investment did it take to achieve these margins?” said Mohamed Kamel, chief executive of Egypt Resort Company, which in 1995 bought 42m sq m of development land on the Red Sea for about $3 a square metre, according to analysts.

埃及旅游景观公司(Egypt Resort Company)首席执行官默罕默德•卡迈勒(Mohamed Kamel)说：“是的，人们认为这些利润率很高，但这么高的利润率需要付出多少年的投资？”分析人士称，这家公司1995年以3美元/平米的价格在红海边购得4200万平米土地。

Mr Kamel did not disagree with these figures, but pointed out: “You are trying to attract investors to very remote areas which are complete desert.”

卡迈勒并未对这些数据提出异议，但他指出：“那是在试着往完全是沙漠的偏远地区吸引投资者。”

As the government struggles to build credibility with a disillusioned population, the land developers offer a tempting political target. But businessmen are warning that pressing too hard could provoke capital flight and an economic crisis on top of a political one.

由于政府需要努力在失望的民众中树立公信力，地产开发商成了一个诱人的政治目标。但商人们警告，过度施压可能导致资本逃逸，在政治危机之上又引发一场经济危机。

“They need to strike the right balance between due process and a witch hunt,” said one hedge fund manager who asked not to be named. “If they start a witch hunt, then people will take their money and go elsewhere.”

“他们需要在司法程序和政治迫害之间找到恰当的平衡，”一位不愿透露姓名的对冲基金经理表示。“如果开始政治迫害，人们就会带着钱走人。”