2011年：美中之间的零和博弈？Bearish predictions from China for 2011

China’s biggest bear, Andy Xie, has made his prediction for 2011 and it is pretty grim: the race for economic recovery will be a zero-sum game between China and the US.

中国最著名的“空头”谢国忠(Andy Xie)对2011年作出了相当悲观的预测：围绕经济复苏展开的竞赛，将是中美两国之间的一场零和博弈。

Xie, a former Morgan Stanley economist and one of the most outspoken critics of China’s growing property bubble, wrote last week in the Chinese publication China Century Weekly that he expects one of the two countries’ economies to crash.

这位前摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家是中国不断膨胀的房地产泡沫最激烈的批评者之一。他上周在中国杂志《新世纪》周刊上撰文预测称，中美两国之中将会有一国经济崩盘。

Xie says the combination of US dollars flooding the system with liquidity and China holding its currency down will be potent.

谢国忠表示，美元充斥系统造成流动性泛滥和中国压低人民币汇率交互作用，将产生严重的后果。

He writes,

他写道：

'The most likely candidates to trigger the next global crisis are the US’s sovereign debt or China’s inflation. When one goes down first, the other can prolong its economic cycle. China may have won the last race. To win the next one, China must tackle its inflation problem, which is ultimately a political and structural issue, in 2011. If China does, the US will again be the cause for the next global crisis. China would suffer from declining exports but benefit from lower oil price.'

“最有可能引发下一次全球危机的因素，要么是美国的主权债务，要么是中国的通胀问题。当其中一国先出现问题，另一国的经济周期便可以延长。中国或许已在上一次竞赛中胜出，但要想赢得下一场竞赛，就必须在2011年解决通胀问题，而归根结底，这是一个政治和结构性问题。如果中国能解决通胀问题，美国又将成为下一次全球危机的诱因。出口下降可能会令中国受损，但油价下跌却会让中国获益。”

Keeping inflation down is of key concern to Beijing’s mandarins. Over the weekend state media quoted Premier Wen Jiabao pledging to keep consumer inflation, a potential source of social unrest, down in 2011.

控制通胀是中国政府官员们最关心一个问题。上周末，官方媒体报道称，国务院总理温家宝保证2011年将抑制消费价格上涨。消费价格上涨是引发社会动荡的一个潜在因素。

“The central government has taken a slew of steps to stabilize prices,” Wen said, promising to put the issue higher on the official agenda, something the government has been saying since November when inflation soared to a two-year high.

温家宝表示：“中央已采取一系列措施稳定物价。”他承诺将把稳定物价摆在更重要的位置。自去年11月通胀飙升至两年高位以来，政府一直在表达这样的态度。

Following zero-sum logic Xie expostulates that China’s inflation will be great news for the US:

谢国忠告诫称，按照零和博弈逻辑，中国通胀对于美国来说是一个好消息：

'Inflation is good for the U.S., because foreigners own nearly 100 percent of its GDP in financial assets. With its massive U.S. debt holdings, China will suffer especially hard. Indeed, if China’s foreign exchange reserves evaporate in value, it becomes very vulnerable, unless its structural problems are solved.'

“通胀对美国来说是好事，因为外国债权人持有的金融资产相当于美国GDP的近100％。由于持有数额庞大的美国国债，中国遭受的损失将尤为惨重。实际上，如果中国外汇储备的价值蒸发，中国将变得非常脆弱——除非其结构性问题得到解决。”

Today’s lower-than-expected Chinese purchasing managers’ data for December will likely assuage concern in Beijing, and it will also calm investors worried that Beijing will clamp down on red-hot growth. Yet it is precisely this growth, Xie says, that risks a hard landing for China. He writes,

昨日发布的12月份中国采购经理数据低于预期，这可能会缓解中国政府的担忧，也会减轻投资者对于政府将遏制经济增长过热的忧虑。不过，谢国忠表示，正是这种过热增长，使中国面临着硬着陆的风险。他写道：

'If China has a hard landing, the US’s trade deficit can drop dramatically, maybe by 50%, due to lower import prices. It would boost the dollar’s value and bring down the US’s treasury yield. The US can have lower financing cost and lower expenditure. The combination allows the US to enjoy a period of good growth . . . '

“如果中国出现硬着陆，美国的贸易赤字可能会由于进口价格降低而明显下降，降幅可能高达50%。这将会推高美元币值，并压低美国国债收益率。美国的融资成本和支出水平都可能降低。这些因素交织在一起，能使美国享受一段时期的良好增长……”

Neither scenario would bode well for a 2011 global financial recovery. Even if one takes Xie’s warnings with a grain of salt, his predictions reveal precarious and complex possibilities that could trip-wire global recovery and that economic power brokers in both the US and China would do well to keep in mind.

对于2011年的全球经济复苏而言，上述两种情形都不是好兆头。即使对谢国忠的警告持保留态度，他的预测仍揭示出一些值得警惕和错综复杂的可能性——它们有可能成为全球复苏的绊脚石，而美中两国的经济权力掮客们千万要心中有数。