香格里拉大火事件:经济学人：中国军事力量 披着羊皮现代化

英国《经济学人》8月26日发表了《China's military power Modernisation in sheep's clothing》的文章。原文如下：

The good news, as suggested by the Pentagon's latest annual report on China's military power, is that Chinese leaders are still eager to avoid confrontation with other powers and focus on beefing up the economy. The bad news, it hints, is that this might not last. With its rapidly improving military capability (described by the Pentagon in great detail), China has the wherewithal to challenge the security status quo in the Pacific as well as potential motives to do so.

【好消息是，据五角大楼最新的中国军力报告称，中国的领导们仍然竭力地避免与其他力量对抗，并且把重心放在发展经济上。坏消息是，这份报告也暗示了，这样的情况也许不会持久。随着军事力量的快速发展（五角大楼对此有详细描述），中国有了挑战太平洋的安全现状的资本，而且也有的这么做的动机。】

The report is diplomatically couched—though from China's perspective, not nearly enough. It hints at considerable unease about long-term trends in China's military buildup. The last few months have seen some headline-grabbing aspects of this: an assertion by the Pentagon in December that China was making faster progress than expected on an aircraft-carrier-killing ballistic missile, the DF-21D; a new stealth fighter, the J-20, making its first test flight just as Robert Gates, then defence secretary, was visiting Beijing in January; and then this month the maiden launch of China's first aircraft carrier, a refitted Kuznetsov-class ship (as yet unnamed) from the former Soviet Union.

【这份报告措辞婉转，虽然在中国看来，一点都不婉转。它暗示了其他国家对于中国军事发展的长期趋势感到相当地不安。最近几个月，有一些令人瞩目的事件：五角大楼12月称中国的反舰母弹道导弹——DF-21D的发展速度超乎预期；J-20新型隐形战斗机在国防部长罗伯特•盖茨1月访问中国时进行了第一次试飞；这个月，中国首艘由前苏联制造、尚未命名的库兹涅佐夫级航母进行了处女航。】

About these particular weapons, the Pentagon avoids sounding alarmed. Of the DF-21D missile, it says that it is still being developed. It does not repeat the claim made by Admiral Robert Willard of America’s Pacific Command in December that the missile has reached “initial operational capability”. The J-20, it says, is not expected to reach “effective operational capability” before 2018 (China, it says, has yet to master high-performance jet-engine production). China is likely to build “multiple” aircraft-carriers with support craft over the next decade. But it will take “several additional years” for China to achieve a “minimal level of combat capability” with them, says the report.

【五角大楼对于这些武器没有及时的预警报告。美国大平洋舰队海军上将罗伯特•维拉得称中国DF-21D导弹具备了试运行的能力，但五角大楼没有同意他的判断，而称仍在研制之中。它称J-20在2018年前不会形成有效战斗力（因为中国没有掌握生产高性能喷气发动机的能力）。中国可能在未来十年生产多个航母及支援舰只。但是报告称，中国要它们形成“最低的战斗力水平”还尚需数年时间。】

The Pentagon does say, however, that China is steadily closing its technological gap with modern armed forces. The country’s lack of transparency about this, it says, is fuelling concern in the region about China’s intentions, with some of its neighbours fearing that China’s growing military and economic weight is “beginning to produce a more assertive posture, particularly in the maritime domain”. A senior Pentagon official, Michael Schiffer, told reporters that China’s capabilities could “contribute to regional tensions and anxieties”.

【然而，五角大楼称，中国正在稳步地缩小与现代军队的差距。中国军事不透明性加深了其邻国对于中国意图的担忧，有些邻国担心“中国凭借日益增长的军事和经济力量正在打造一个更为强势的形象，特别是在制海权方面”。五角大楼一位高级官员迈克尔•希弗称“中国的军事力量会导致地区紧张态势”。】

Like previous such reports, this one lists forces which could cause China’s self-proclaimed “peaceful development” to become less so. One of these, which was not listed last year, is a growing expectation at home and abroad that China will become more involved in addressing global problems and pursuing its own international interests. This is causing some of the Chinese leaders in responsible positions to worry about taking on more than they can handle, says the Pentagon. Nationalists at home, however, are pushing for a “more muscular” posture.

【与先前的报告一样，本次的报告称这会使中国所说的“和平发展”更加不为人信服。去年的报告没有指出的一点是，在国内外，人们日益认为中国将在全球事务和追求国际利益方面发挥更大的作用。五角大楼称，这会使得一些中国高层担心超出自身的能力。然而，国内的民族主义者们正在呼吁应该采取“更加咄咄逼人的做法”。】

China is outraged that anyone could doubt its commitment to a peaceful ascent. The Pentagon’s assertions, said China’s state-run news agency, Xinhua, were “utterly cock-and-bull” and based on “a wild guess and illogical reasoning”. Thumping furiously on the table, China apparently believes, is a good way of convincing the world of its pacific intent.

【中国对于他人怀疑其和平发展的承诺表示愤怒。中国的新华社称五角大楼的说法“荒唐十足”，是基于“一种主观臆断和毫无逻辑的推测”。中国明显认为，公开地表示愤怒是使他人相信其在太平洋意图的一种好方式。】