顿涅斯克体育场:经济学人：失业的出路

　　要说清楚西方世界的失业规模有多大，可以发挥一下地理想象力。若经合组织主要发达成员国家的4000万失业人口组成一个国家，这个国家的人口有西班牙的那么大。而在西方世界失业率最高（21%）的西班牙，失业人口相当于马德里和巴塞罗那两城之和。在美国，官方认定的1400万失业人口可以组成联邦第五大州，若算上1100万“半失业”人员（想多干点都没有机会的人），这个州的人口有德克萨斯一个州那么多。

The landscape is not uniformly bleak. Germany, for example, now has a lower jobless rate than before the financial crisis. But in most of the rich world the proportion of people unemployed, though down a bit from its peak in 2009, is still alarmingly high, even as fears mount that several countries may be slipping back into recession. And the human cost of the economic crisis is paid largely by those who are out of work, for joblessness increases depression, divorce, substance abuse and pretty much everything that can go wrong in a life.

　　情形亦非处处糟糕，德国目前的失业率比金融危机发生前还低。但就大部分发达国家而言，失业人口虽然较2009年的峰值稍少，但依旧高得吓人，尤其现在有几个国家可能会重新堕入衰退。而经济危机带来的人间悲剧又往往发生在失去了工作的人。失业带来压抑，离婚，暴食暴饮，药物滥用，几乎整个生活都乱套。

Worse, today’s joblessness is a particularly dangerous sort. A disproportionate share of those out of work are young, and youth unemployment leaves more scars, in terms of lower future wages and greater likelihood of future unemployment (see article). Joblessness is also becoming more chronic. In America, famous for its flexible labour market, the average jobless spell now lasts 40 weeks, up from 17 in 2007. In Italy half of those without work have been so for more than a year. Long-term unemployment is harder to cure, as people’s skills atrophy and they become detached from the workforce. Its shadow lingers, reducing future growth rates, damaging public finances and straining social order for years to come.

　　更坏的是当下的失业问题尤其危险。大部分失业人口为年轻人，他们未来收入低，失业风险大。年轻人失业给社会留下更多创伤。失业也正在演变为长期问题。在劳动市场极具弹性而闻名的美国，平均失业时长已从2007年的17个星期上涨到40个星期。在意大利，半数失业人员失业逾一年。长期失业问题更难处理。人们的技术能力会退化，渐渐跟不上大队。失业阴霾一朝不散，未来几年的增长速度就会被减慢，公帑会减少，社会矛盾会激化。

This mess will not be fixed quickly. Even if growth accelerates, unemployment will remain worryingly high for several years. Many remedies, such as retraining workers, take time. But that only makes it all the more shocking that politicians have done so little. America is stuck in a sterile debate, with the left claiming that the government is not spending enough, while the right insists that big government is destroying jobs. An increasingly unpopular Barack Obama was due to address Congress on the subject just after The Economist went to press (see article). Across the Atlantic many of the responses to the euro crisis (see article) seem designed to drive up joblessness. The West’s leaders can and must do better.

　　这堆烂摊子不会很快就收拾好。几年之内，即便经济增长加速，失业情况依然会高得令人难眠，诸如重新培训劳工等措施又非一日之功。这更令人咋舌从政者几无作为。美国深陷没有结果的辩论。左派说政府资金投入不足，右派说政府权力过大摧毁就业。民望日低的奥巴马将在本期《经济学人》出街后到国会发表关于就业问题的演说。在大西洋另一侧，很多针对欧元危机的措施似乎只会恶化就业。西方世界的领袖可以有所作为。他们亦必须有所作为。

Go for growth

向增长冲刺

The immediate priority should be supporting demand—or at least not doing harm to it. The left is right on one thing: the main cause of the current high joblessness is the severity of the last recession and the weakness of the subsequent recovery. Yet the West’s economies have embarked on contractionary policies. In some cases the fault lies with monetary policy: the European Central Bank should reverse its recent rate rises. But the main culprit is a collective, premature shift to fiscal austerity by governments.

　　首要之务是响应需求——起码避免打击需求。左派有一事说得对：当前高失业，主要是因为经济严重衰退又复苏疲弱。但是，西方采取的经济对策却南辕北辙。当中部分失误错在货币政策：欧洲央行不应提高利率。但主要的错是在于政府集体而不成熟地转向财政紧缩。

As this newspaper has repeatedly argued, politicians need to strike a bargain with the bond markets: combine policies that cushion growth now with measures that will bring deficits under control in the medium term. Raise the retirement age, for instance, and that leaves more room to stimulate growth in the short term. A minimal test of Mr Obama’s jobs agenda will be whether it is big enough to counter the fiscal tightening, equivalent to 2% of GDP, that is slated for next year.

　　正如本报一贯主张，从政者应同债券市场讨价还价：把能够保障经济增长的政策与能够中期内控制住赤字的措施结合。例如可以提高退休年龄，这将短期有助刺激增长。奥巴马在解决就业上要面临的最小的考验，将是他的就业议程能否抵消已定于明年的财政紧缩（规模达至GDP的2%）的影响。

Where should the short-term money go? Some forms of stimulus are better than others at supporting employment. Germany’s subsidies for shortened working hours helped dissuade firms from firing workers; Mr Obama’s subsidies for green technology fattened the bottom line of a few chosen firms but did very little to spur jobs. Governments should prioritise policies that do. Some infrastructure spending, such as building roads and repairing schools, falls into that category. So do tax incentives that cut the cost of hiring, particularly for extra new workers—which is why it makes sense for America to extend, and even expand, its payroll-tax cut. And so, in America’s case, does federal aid to the states, since the main way states cut their budgets is by firing workers.

　　短期内政府的钱应该用在何处？某些刺激就业的方案做得比其它方案好。德国工时削减津贴有效减少了企业裁员，但奥巴马绿色技术补贴却几乎一点也不能带动就业，惟养肥了几家中标公司。所以，政府应该将有效的方案置于首位。修筑公路、学校基建这样的投资便属于这种方案。能够削减雇佣费用的免税措施也是如此（尤其是针对聘请新员工的免税措施）。这也是为什么说美国应该扩大在职免税的涵盖面，乃至深化优惠。因此，对于美国而言，增加联邦对各州的援助同样有用——既然各州开源节流的主要途径便是裁减人手。

Easing the road ahead

让前路好走一点

So there are ways in which government money can help. But it is also plain that the jobs mess is not just about demand: it cannot be solved with more stimulus alone. There is plenty of evidence—from declining employment rates for less-skilled men to rising disability rolls—to suggest that Western economies had a brewing jobs problem long before the financial crisis hit. The combination of new technology and globalisation has reduced the demand for the less skilled, and many workers, particularly men, have failed to respond to these deep changes in the labour market. The shift in demand for skills has a long way to go, as our special report on the future of work explains. It suggests an important part of any jobs agenda must involve changes in education, more training to equip people in the rich world for tomorrow’s jobs and getting government off entrepreneurs’ backs.

　　所以说，政府的钱有很多方法来帮助就业。但当然失业问题不单单是个需求问题，要解决它就得多管齐下。有很多证据显示，远早在金融危机发生前，西方国家的就业问题便在酝酿着了：低技能人群就业率降低，无能力自立的人群增加。新科技和全球化进程一道令市场对工作技能相对不足者的需求降低。而很多劳工，尤其以男性为主，面对劳工市场这些深刻的变化无力应对。技能需求的改变是一个长时间的过程（请见本报关于职场未来的特别报告的解释）。这份报告认为在思考解决就业问题时，须将教育方面的变化纳入考虑。应投入更多力量去培训发达国家的人民以适应未来的工作，并将政府从企业家那一边拉下来。

But it is also clear that labour-market policies themselves can make a huge difference. In many cases this means deregulation. In Spain 46% of young people under the age of 25 are out of work because there is a two-tier system, with mollycoddled “permanent” workers and easy-to-fire “temporary” workers, who are disproportionately young. Europe’s Mediterranean economies could learn a lot from Germany’s labour-market overhaul. America is better at creative destruction, but it invests too little in ways to help the unemployed back to work. Mr Obama could usefully look to the Netherlands and Denmark for ideas on how to overhaul an antiquated unemployment system and improve its training schemes.

　　但另一方面，很明显，劳动力市场政策本身能发挥巨大作用。这句话在很多案例下意味着去放松劳动力的管制。西班牙46%的25岁以下失业青年是由于二元制的合同体系而失业的。这一体系将员工划分为永久员工和临时员工两类。前者娇生惯养；后者时刻有炒鱿之虞，且大部分为年轻人。欧洲地中海经济体可以从德国对劳动力市场全面检讨中学到许多。美国更善于有创造性破坏，但在帮助失业人士再就业方面投入过少。奥巴马大可向荷兰和丹麦取经，改革腐朽的失业制度，改善美国的培训计划。

Do all these things correctly and the quest for jobs will take less time. But it has taken Western governments too long to grasp the seriousness of their jobs problem. Many people will suffer because of that.

　　假如能妥善办好这些事情，就业问题便能加快解决。但西方政府用了过多的时间才领悟问题的严峻，很多人将为此受罪。