韩国十九禁 mv:US 10-year counter-terrorism: Success or failure?

By Li Xuejiang (People's Daily Online)
07:45, September 09, 2011

Jeremy Littlewood's profile
On the eve of the 10th anniversary of “9.11”, People’s Daily staff reporter Li Xuejiang made and exclusive interview with a well-known Canadian expert on counter terrorism，Dr. Director of the Canadian Centre of Intelligence and Security Studies (CCISS).
Li Xuejiang: How would you like to assess successes and failures Of the U.S. counter-terrorism in the past ten years?
Dr. Littlewood: U.S. counter-terrorism efforts have been focused on radical Islamic groups associated with Al Qaeda. This is unsurprising given Al Qaeda’s role in the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. has assisted other states in countering non-Islamic terrorism, such as Colombia and its efforts against FARC. Thus the ‘Global War on Terrorism’ never was focused on all types of terrorism: rather, its focus, understandably, was on the terrorism stemming from radical interpretations of political Islam that directly threatened the U.S. homeland and its interests.
In terms of successes, we should note that there have been no further ‘spectacular’ type attacks on the U.S. homeland and Al Qaeda and its affiliates or supporters have been pushed into conducting low-level attacks against the U.S. homeland. Thus, in terms of defending the U.S. homeland the policies have been successful if success if judged by preventing or thwarting major attacks.
Other successes over the decade include degrading Al Qaeda core in Afghanistan and Pakistan, pushing them out of Afghanistan and removing the safe haven from the 1990s, and putting them on the defensive in Pakistan and the Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas, as well as in other areas of the world. Deteriorating the ability of such groups to plan and act freely is not an inconsiderable achievement.
The U.S. has also managed to galvanize some of its allies and friends into countering Al Qaeda-type terrorism, even if some did so reluctantly initially: Saudi Arabia; Pakistan for example.
Al Qaeda is much less of a threat to the U.S. now than it was ten years ago. The killing of Osama Bin Laden is perhaps the best illustration of this.
In terms of failures, history will be the better judge of that given that we are still only a few years on from the attacks and the impact of events or policies are not always immediately obvious in the long or short term. It is worth noting the following:
• Permitting Al Qaeda members to escape to Pakistan has exacerbated the problem over time, both in terms of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• The assumption that Al Qaeda’s ideology would not spread to U.S. Muslims proved to be unfounded as the decade wore on: low-level attacks in the U.S. have been conducted by individuals radicalized by the ideas and propaganda disseminated by Al Qaeda, demonstrating that the U.S. faces the same challenges as other states.
• Significant propaganda victories for Al Qaeda and its ilk were evident in the failure in Iraq during the period 2003 to 2006, with the Abu Ghraib interrogation pictures, killing of civilians, and the rise of the Iraqi insurgency all undermining U.S. counter-terrorism efforts.
• Guantanamo Bay and the ‘torture’ memos that permitted enhanced interrogation techniques have also undermined aspects of the counter-terrorism effort with the U.S. being branded as a state that permits torture.
Li Xuejiang:How would you foresee the future trend of global terrorist activities and their new features?
Dr. Littlewood: Terrorism takes many forms – left wing, right wing, religious, ethno-nationalist, and single issue. All will occur in the future; at this time religious terrorism remains the predominant threat to Western democracies such as the US. These distinctions are not mutually exclusive to each other: groups can be both ethno-nationalist and religious, religious and right wing for example.
Terrorists, and terrorist groups remain innovative in the application of attacks: we can see this with the evolution of attempts against airlines, e.g. liquid bomb plots; binary devices; and the use of cargo and freight aircraft (i.e. the computer printer devices). We can also see this in the increasing interest in unconventional weapons.
Terrorism is very likely to remain a constant, lower-level threat to the US, its allies, and other states in the next decade or so.
Li Xuejiang:How do you comment the impact of killing of Osama bin Laden on the global terrorist activities?
Dr. Littlewood:This is a significant achievement, demonstrating that the US is willing to expend significant resources and time pursuing individuals. It is also a major blow to Al Qaeda in strategic and organizational terms, though it likely will not result in a rapid collapse to Al Qaeda. Bin Laden was an important figurehead and his killing is a major blow to Al Qaeda.
Li Xuejiang: What would be your proposals on the future global counter-terrorism?
Dr.Littlewood: Terrorism is a constant security threat to the US and its allies, as well as other states. Indeed, it was a constant threat before 9/11. The attacks of Sept. 11 were a ‘spectacular’ and while there is no guarantee that an attack on that scale will not occur in the future, it has been lessened to a significant degree. Future attacks are more likely to result in casualties and deaths in the tens and possibly hundreds, rather than thousands.
Counter-terrorism efforts need to accommodate changes in the security environment over the last decade: radicalization of communities remains a threat, but as the Arab revolutions demonstrate, populations are driven to pursue freedom and democracy; freedom of speech, and the desire for political freedom are more appealing catalysts for change than the ideology of Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda never had an attractive alternative vision that was appealing to the majority of Muslims in other states in the long term. Thus, the contest of ideas, political ideas, remains as valid in countering terrorism as it did in the Cold War and will, no doubt, be in the future between democracies and non-democracies.
Democratic states should remain within the rule of law and consider the propaganda and competition of ideas aspects of counter-terrorism. There will always be a need for a kinetic or forceful response at times. Thus, counter-terrorism is a holistic effort, requiring the use of military means in certain circumstances, the law enforcement community, and diplomacy, as much as ideas.
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oon at 2011-09-09120.166.72.*Until now, it still remains a mystery, whether accidentally or not, and what exactly is the ultimate goal behind all of the incidents such these. (the high-rise buildings could collapse to the bottom) so easily?
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