Tripoli under siege, but what comes next ?

(Global Times)

09:41, August 22, 2011

After months of military confrontation in Libya, the Gaddafi stronghold of Tripoli has been encircled by the rebels. It is difficult to predict the next step for the country. The battle for Tripoli is reportedly very fierce. No one can tell how long it will last, and how many casualties there will be.

Gaddafi had initially shown a strong ability to resist rebel attacks and NATO air strikes, but the twisting of the situation suggests that he alone cannot resist the joint opposition of the major Western powers.

During the six months of the war, there have been opportunities for a political settlement to the crisis, but these did not happen, in large part due to the West's resolute drive to topple the strongman's regime. This attitude has made the conflict even bloodier. 

The West had the chance to help guide for Libya, but they chose the path with most risks.

No matter how long Gaddafi holds on to power, there needs to be a vision for a post-Gaddafi Libya. The war may end soon, but will peace be ushered in instead? With Gaddafi having been 40 years in power, the Libyan people are asking for a change. The Arab Spring has sped up such change. 

Political problems in different countries have their own roots. In the 1960s revolution wave in the Arab world, a generation of iron-fisted leaders came to power, and have remained in power for decades. 

The civil war in Libya is believed to have killed 25,000 people. How the huge price of the war will shape the progress of the country is just one of many questions asked by the world media. 

There are increasing worries about whether Libya could become the next Afghanistan. Internal ethnic conflict and extreme religious tendencies will not disappear with Gaddafi. 

Whether the new government supported by NATO will be as weak as the Afghanistan central government haunts many observers. 

If a similar civil war spreads to other Arab countries, it will be an unmitigated disaster. In the modern world, a country's turmoil will extend to other regions. 

Perhaps Gaddafi should choose to step down voluntarily, avoiding much tragedy. But the world should create the right conditions for this to happen. 
The cameras may enjoy the spectacle of running street battles, but they do not always show the death behind them. 

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