阿拉坦五味丸 黑便:美元贬值倒逼人民币加快升值

2011年 08月 11日 09:51美元贬值倒逼人民币加快升值
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人民币动起来了吗？一年以来，人民币汇率都是停滞不前，而现在有迹象表明，中国正在允许其升值速度加快。

当局周三将人民币汇率设定在1美元兑6.4167元的水平，较前一天升值0.2%，比平时微不足道的上下波动幅度更大。这是一周以来第二次升值。人民币对美元汇率两年不变的局面在2010年6月份结束时，人民币升值幅度也才0.4%。

为什么如此激进？

乐观的回答是，中国正在采取行动支撑脆弱的全球经济复苏。美国举步维艰，金融市场也在动荡之中。

相关阅读物价上涨压力助推人民币再创新高中国7月份310亿美元的贸易顺差为2009年1月份以来最大。这提醒人们，人民币仍然处在低估水平。人民币低估已经成为吸引美国和其他方面批评的避雷针。

日本和瑞士在通过干预来压低本币汇率，目的是支持它们自己的出口企业。如果中国是在反向而动，那么人民币的更快升值就会推动进口增加，支持贸易伙伴的经济增长。

但更现实的回答是，通胀担忧加上美元贬值使中国不得不这样做，而人民币对美元的升值对于支持世界其他地区的增长也将起不到多大作用。

周二市场美元受挫，原因是美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Markets Committee)暗示近零利率可能会维持到2013年。

美元贬值让中国决策者面临艰难的选择。要么是跟着美元贬值，惹怒其他贸易伙伴并输入更高水平的通胀压力，要么是加快升值步伐，损害出口游说势力的利益。

通胀担忧让中国决策者倾向于升值。美联储维持低利率的承诺，以及实施第三轮量化宽松政策越来越大的可能性，都给中国人民银行施加了压力，必须更快行动。

中国决策者担心的是，美国的低回报和过剩资金将把资金推向新兴市场，加剧资产价格泡沫。在消费价格指数同比增幅达到6.5%、已经处于三年最高的情况下，北京不适合在通货膨胀上面冒险。

同样重要的是，人民币加快升值对于中国贸易伙伴的影响将是有限的。对贬值中的美元升值，贸易加权汇率就没有什么变化。从这个角度来讲，本周更大幅度的升值并不代表中国与过去一年的策略分道扬镳。过去一年人民币对美元名义汇率升值5.2%，但其贸易加权实际汇率却是小幅贬值。

对于投资者来说，因为美元可能会持续下跌，下注更大幅度的双边升值有钱可赚，具体办法包括买进有可能跟着人民币升值的其他亚洲货币。但升值只是针对美元，贸易加权汇率不受多大影响，这样的升值对于扶助萎靡不振的全球经济复苏将起不到多大作用。

Falling Dlr Forces Beijing's Hand

Is the yuan on the move? After a year of dragging its heels on theexchange rate, there are signs that China is allowing the pace ofappreciation to accelerate.

Authorities fixed the yuan onWednesday at 6.4167 against the dollar, representing a 0.2% gain on theprevious day -- more sizable than the usual diminutive ups and downs. Itwas the second record for the week. The move that ended the yuan'stwo-year peg to the dollar in June 2010 was only 0.4%.

Why so aggressive?

Theoptimistic response is that China is acting to support a fragile globalrecovery. The U.S. is faltering and financial markets are in turmoil.

A$31 billion trade surplus for China in July is the largest sinceJanuary 2009, a reminder that the yuan remains undervalued, and alightning rod for criticism from the U.S. and others.

Japan andSwitzerland are intervening to manage the value of their currencydownward, aiming to support their own exporters. If China is moving inthe other direction, more rapid appreciation will drive imports higherand support growth in its trade partners.

But a more realisticanswer is that a combination of inflation fears and dollar weakness isforcing China's hand, and yuan gains against the dollar will do littleto support growth in the rest of the world.

The dollar took abeating in the markets Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Open MarketsCommittee suggested interest rates could be held near zero till 2013.

Afalling dollar presents China's policy makers with an unpalatablechoice: follow the dollar down, earning the ire of other trade partnersand importing higher levels of inflationary pressure, or pick up thepace of appreciation, against the interests of the export lobby.

Fearof inflation tips China's policy makers toward appreciation. The Fed'spromise to keep rates low, and the increased chance of a third round ofquantitative easing, puts pressure on the People's Bank of China to movefaster than it otherwise would.

The fear for China's policymakers is that low returns in the U.S., and a surfeit of funds, willdrive capital into emerging markets, fueling asset price bubbles. Withthe consumer price index already at a three-year high of 6.5%year-to-year, Beijing isn't in a position to take chances on inflation.

Asimportant, the impact on China's trade partners will be limited.Appreciation against a falling dollar leaves the yuan little changed on atrade-weighted basis. In that respect, more aggressive moves this weekdon't represent a departure from China's strategy for the past year,when the yuan gained 5.2% in nominal terms against the dollar but fellslightly on a real trade-weighted basis.

For investors, theprospect of sustained falls in the dollar means that there is money tobe made by betting on more aggressive bilateral appreciation, includingby buying other Asia currencies that will likely follow the yuan up. Butgains against the dollar that don't have much impact on thetrade-weighted exchange rate will do little to support a flagging globalrecovery.

Tom Orlik