BIS：全球经济增长必须放缓Economic growth must slow, warns BIS

Global economic growth must slow to curb inflationary pressure around the world, the influential central bankers’ bank has warned, saying that there was little or no slack left for rapid non-inflationary expansion.

国际清算银行(BIS)发出警告，为遏制世界各国面临的通胀压力，全球经济增长必须放缓，表示合理通胀率下经济高速扩张的空间极小、甚至没有。

In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements said that with the scope for rapid growth closing, monetary policy should be quickly brought back to normal and countries should act urgently to close budget deficits.

这家有影响力的“各国央行的央行”在其年报中表示，在经济高速增长的空间消失之际，各国应迅速恢复正常的货币政策，并迅速采取行动消除预算赤字。

The tough recommendations were urged on advanced and emerging economies alike from the BIS – the international organisation which came closest to predicting the 2008-09 financial and economic crisis – despite signs of weakening economic momentum this year.

尽管今年各种迹象显示经济增长势头正在减弱，但BIS此番严厉的警告是同时针对各发达经济体和新兴经济体发出的。这一国际组织在预测2008年至2009年金融与经济危机方面相对最为准确。

The spike in energy prices has cooled the global economy since January and led to fears for the recovery, culminating in the International Energy Agency’s release of 60m barrels of oil in the coming month.

自1月份起，能源价格的攀升开始导致全球经济趋于冷却，这一状况最终导致国际能源署(IEA)宣布在未来一个月释放6000万桶应急原油储备。

The BIS report, however, warned policymakers not to expect a normal recovery because much of the pre-crisis growth had been unsustainable and capacity will have been destroyed for ever, particularly in finance and construction.

然而，BIS报告警告各国政策制定者，不要期待出现正常的复苏，因为危机前的经济增长在很大程度上是不可持续的，某些产能将受到永久性的摧毁，尤其是在金融和建筑领域。

Jaime Caruana, general manager of the BIS, said on Sunday that the imbalances caused by unsustainable growth before the crisis “now need to be rectified, and as they are, growth is bound to be slow. Policymakers should not hinder this inevitable adjustment.”

国际清算银行(BIS)行长杰米•卡如纳(Jaime Caruana)周日表示，危机前不可持续的增长所导致的各种不平衡“如今必须得到修正，因为这个原因，经济增长必然是缓慢的。各国政策决定者不应阻碍这种不可避免的调整。”

Rising food, energy and other commodity prices underscored the need for central banks around the world to begin raising interest rates, perhaps even more rapidly than they brought them down, said the BIS in its report. “Highly accommodative monetary policies are fast becoming a threat to price stability,” it concluded.

BIS在其报告中指出，不断上涨的食品、能源和其他大宗商品价格，凸显了世界各国央行开始提高利率的必要性，加息速度或许应该比当初减息的速度还要快。报告的结论是：“各国非常宽松的货币政策正在迅速地威胁到价格的稳定性。”

The fact that interest rates have been so low for so long also introduces new risks into the world’s financial system even though these policies were put in train initially by a desire to reduce risk, the report added.

报告还指出，极低的利率持续了如此长时间，也给全球金融系统带来了新的风险，即便出台这些政策的初衷是降低风险。

“The persistence of very low interest rates in major advanced economies delays the necessary balance sheet adjustments of households and financial institutions,” the BIS said.

BIS表示：“世界主要发达国家继续维持极低的汇率，推迟着家庭和金融机构资产负债表的必要调整。”

The BIS view runs counter to that of the Federal Reserve, its largest member central bank, which made it clear last week that its interest rates would remain extremely low for an “extended period”.

BIS的这一观点与美联储(FED)的观点背道而驰。这家BIS最大的成员央行上周宣布，它将在“较长的一个时期内”继续维持极低的利率。

译者/吴蔚