郑晓宁现代军旅剧:Clashes over South China Sea pose a test to n...

来源：百度文库编辑：九乡新闻网时间：2024/05/02 08:03:53

Clashes over South China Sea pose a test to new E Asian Structure

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2011-6-15 10:09

By Li Hongmei

South China Sea waters will be churned up if some regional countries insisted on risky ventures to address the so-called border issue. What is happening now is already inviting the global concerns--- Vietnam is using live ammunition in its war exercises in the waters of the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Philippine President Benigno Aquino's office stated it was renaming the South China Sea as the "West Philippine Sea" amid the mounting tensions with Beijing.

Viewed from the strategic perspective, the ongoing and escalating border disputes are not merely fighting for maritime rights, but posing a real test to the emerging regional structure characterized by the ever-growing Chinese influence due to its robust economy and “wooing diplomacy”，and correspondingly, the shrinking US clout.

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2011-6-15 10:09

Why Vietnam and Philippines currently act as if they were ready to fight a proxy war representing US against China is virtually making a rash bet, expecting that their open confrontation with China would be vocally and materially backed by the U.S., and their saber-rattling rhetoric and practice could set a precedent for the future settlement of the long brewed disputes. And the concerned countries might also secretly calculate whether China, in response, would flex its economic and military muscles to force the small neighbors to bow down or it could be caught in an embarrassing dilemma as it has all the way called for a multi-lateral mechanism and claimed its rise a peaceful one.

Further, the U.S., while mourning for its dwindling predominance over the region and preparing for a desirable “comeback”, is also maintaining sharp vigilance on China’s increasingly assertive role in the Asia-Pacific region, which the U.S. describes as crucial to its national interest.

Washington has reason to fear that an integrated Asia or a new regional structure would gradually exclude the US. While Asian nations, especially American allies, insist on an “indispensable” US presence in the region, they also welcome Beijing’s pledge about good neighborliness and equality.

It is actually no surprising that Vietnam turned out so aggressive this time. Their distrust in China is partially a legacy left over by history. Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, angered Beijing during a visit to Vietnam last year by declaring the South China Sea a national interest of the US, but, boosted Vietnamese morale to provoke China.

Robert Gates, US defence secretary said, when he was making his final visit to Asia before stepping down as Pentagon chief later this month, that the US would maintain “robust military engagement” and increase port calls and naval engagements in the region. He also dismissed concerns that pressures on the Pentagon budget, as the US addresses its fiscal deficit, coupled with rising Chinese military budgets meant US influence in the region would wane.

“I will bet you a $100 that five years from now the United States’ influence in this region is as strong if not stronger than it is today,” he said.

What is noteworthy is that while Mr Gates expressed “concern” about the increase in incidents, his comments appeared to mark a sharp reversal from the tougher approach taken by the US government last year.

Perhaps, the heightened US attitude and sharpened rhetoric came partly in response to appeals from south-east Asian countries for a stronger US role in the region to balance China.
While China looms increasingly large in the economic future of all Asian nations, virtually all those countries see the US playing an increasingly important security role at the same time.

Of course, no country wants to be forced to choose between the US and China, as it is by no means a win-win deal. But the U.S. hegemony over the region is something of a lingering monster overpowering these small allies--hard to evade, and even harder to resist.

That might explains why even countries drawn into China’s orbit by the great sucking sound of its economy – a sound that has been amplified by the sweet promise of free trade agreements – want also to limit the spread of Beijing’s influence and eagerly seek counterbalances to Chinese power

Further, the unfolded South China Sea bickering has raised concerns that the incumbent global naval power and a rising China could easily get into a conflict in China’s neighborhood.

Vietnam, for instance, would spare no time to take advantage of China-US conflicts and create chance to showcase and magnify its regional interests. Viewed by others, China is a giant dwarfing Vietnam, and therefore it will be much easier for Vietnam to rally international support and sympathy.

South China Sea, for China, is not only confined to a border issue, but more of a visible challenge to china’s diplomacy. Even if the diplomatic channel always remains accessible, and China is always seeking settlement through negotiation and talks, China needs a military foresight and it is also advisable to make some preparations for action.

“Good-neighbor” policy acts as China’s diplomatic guideline in the region, as China counts on a friendly neighborhood for its sustainable development. Without peace close-by, how can China go global and its navy touch blue? How can China fulfill its international peace-keeping mission as a standing member of UN Security Council?

Related: Turbulent waters in the South China Sea

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Liang1a

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2^# > A < Posted 2011-6-15 10:26 Only show this user's posts Li Hongmei wrote:
“Good-neighbor” policy acts as China’s diplomatic guideline in the region, as China counts on a friendly neighborhood for its sustainable development. Without peace close-by, how can China go global and its navy touch blue? How can China fulfill its international peace-keeping mission as a standing member of UN Security Council?

There is a famous quote from the Bible:

Ecclesiastes 3:1-8 “To everything there is a season, A time for every purpose  under heaven:... A time to keep silence, and a time to speak; A time to love, and a time to hate; A time of war, and a time of peace.”

From this it is obvious that China must not be monotonous and have only one game to play which is to plead and beg for friendship and peace. It has to be more versatile and be able to adapt itself to changed circumstances.  Furthermore, China's friends will be concerned if they see China as a simple minded weakling who cannot even defend itself against much weaker aggressors.  They will think that if China cannot even protect itself against much weaker aggressors, then what use is China as an ally in time of war? Therefore, China's friends will be gladdened to see China exert itself vigorously in its own defense and prove itself to be a strong ally who can protect time in their time of need.

If China showed itself to be weak, then it will have many more problems in the future.  If it can exert itself and prove itself strong then it will discourage future problems before they start.

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3^# > A < Posted 2011-6-15 12:31 Only show this user's posts "Good neighbor" policy applies only to good neighbors.
Bad neighbors must be taught a lesson. Would US tolerate such bad neighbors?

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4^# > A < Posted 2011-6-15 13:49 Only show this user's posts Li Hongmei wrote:
“Good-neighbor” policy acts as China’s diplomatic guideline in the region, as China counts on a friendly neighborhood for its sustainable development.
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Peace is not always maintained by begging for peace.  Peace is often maintained by force.  This is why policemen must be well armed so that they can arrest criminals.  It is foolish to presume that people are always peaceful and will respond peacefully when peaceful intents are expressed.  Criminals will only be emboldened to attack when they are sure their intended victims are weaker than they are.

Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, etc. are all thugs who have a totally different set of world perceptions.  Therefore, it is not realistic that they will respond to pleadings for peace.  Of course, China can simply give up and give its sovereign territories to them without a fight.  But any Chinese government who gave away sovereign territories should be condemned by the Chinese people.

Furthermore, China's development cannot depend on its neighbors.  As I said repeatedly, China's potential GNP is some 300 trillion yuan based on per capita GNP of 200,000 yuan and a population of 1.5 billion by 2040.  If the exchange rate is 3 yuan per dollar this is equivalent to $100 trillion and some 5 times more than America's total GDP.  Therefore, it is obvious given the fact that the total GDP of the S. Asian countries is around $1 trillion, they cannot make any contribution to the development of China's economy.

Furthermore, if they are hostile to China then it is impossible to establish mutually beneficial relationship with them.  Therefore, they are not worth China's trouble to placate them.  The best and most effective way to treat them is slap them down hard to teach them some proper respect for China.  Then maybe China can work with them for their own best interest.

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