贝佳斯紫泥重金属超标:中国上调存款准备金率意在何为？

2011年 04月 19日 08:55中国上调存款准备金率意在何为？
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中国上调存款准备金率的最新举措更多的是为了回收持续涌入的流动性，而不是抗击通货膨胀。

中国周日将存款准备金率上调至20.5%的纪录高点，表面上看，此举看似仅仅是央行抗击不断上涨的物价所出台措施的一个延续。

毕竟，在宣布上调存款准备金率前，才刚刚公布了3月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上升5.4%，达到了经济学家们预测的上限。

实际上，中国央行的动机更加平凡。在经常项目和资本项目双双持续出现盈余的情况下，中国决定保持人民币汇率不变，这意味着央行将打响一场遏制货币供应量增长的持久战。通过贸易顺差和资本流入而进入中国经济的额外资金需要锁定起来，以防其进入实体经济。

自2010年初以来，中国已经先后10次上调了存款准备金率，但在资本继续涌入的情况下，央行的措施仅仅使问题没有继续加重而已。热钱的流入则令央行雪上加霜。热钱是流入一个国家、寻求迅速获利的投机性资金。

规避中国资本管制的资金流入是非法的，因此其确切规模不得而知，不过分析人士估计一季度这类资金的流入量约为1,300亿美元。此外，还有央行为回收流动性而在2010年和2011年一季度发行的价值1,390亿美元的票据和票据回购，这些票据和票据回购将在4月份到期，令业已充裕的货币供应量进一步增加。

存款准备金率的上调将迫使各银行存放在央行的存款准备金增加约550亿美元。不过，在如此多的额外资金涌入的情况下，上调存款准备金率看起来与其说是大力抗击通胀之举，不如说是为救助一个充满流动性的金融体系而进行的力度不足的尝试。

Reserving Judgment On China's Price Fight

The latest increase in China's reserve-requirement ratio is more aboutsoaking up a continuing influx of liquidity than getting ahead of thecurve on inflation.

At first sight, Sunday's increase in theratio to a record 20.5% looks simply like a continuation of the centralbank's campaign against rising prices in the Chinese economy.

Afterall, the move came hot on the heels of an increase in the consumerprice index to 5.4% year-on-year in March, the top end of economists'expectations.

In fact, the motivation of the People's Bank ofChina is more mundane. China's decision to maintain a fixed exchangerate in the face of sustained 'twin surpluses' in the current andcapital accounts means the central bank is fighting a constant battleagainst increases in the money supply. Extra cash that comes into theeconomy through the trade surplus and capital inflows needs to be lockedup before it can pass through into the real economy.

China hasraised the reserve-requirement ratio 10 times since the start of 2010,but with capital continuing to flood in, the central bank is runningjust to stay in place. So-called hot-money inflows -- speculativecapital that comes into the country seeking a quick profit -- are addingto the PBOC's woes.

Inflows that dodge China's capital controlsare illegal, so the exact quantity isn't known, but analysts putunexplained inflows in the first quarter at about $130 billion. Addingto that, $139 billion worth of bills and repos, sold by the central bankto soak up liquidity in 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, is fallingdue in April, further contributing to ample supplies of funds.

Theincrease in the reserve-requirement ratio will force banks to add anestimated $55 billion to their reserves at the central bank. But with somuch extra cash flooding in, that looks less like an aggressive moveagainst inflation than an inadequate attempt to bail out a financialsystem awash with liquidity.