试论资本主义生产过程:美国不断自讨苦吃 中国从中得利

中国那些觊觎美国“头号强国”地位的政坛精英或许对此等良机的到来感到难以置信。美国坐拥如此多的显性优势令中国望尘莫及，不过有朝一日，若中国真的取代了美国，那非得花上几代人的功夫不可。但是，美国糟糕的政策适得其反，兴许正把中国赶超美国的时间大大缩短。1

Unlike China, which must contend with multiple great powers (Japan, Russia, and India) in its immediate region, powers that do not especially wish China well, the United States has no serious challengers in its entire hemisphere. Add to that the protection afforded by vast oceanic approaches that the exceptionally capable U.S. Navy and Air Force dominate easily, and a huge nuclear deterrent as an ace in the hole, and the United States is easily the most strategically secure great power in history.

中国不得不与周边多个强国处理好国家关系，如日本、俄罗斯、印度。这些国家并非真心希望中国发展起来。美国与中国不同，她在整个北美都没有太大的问题。除此以外，在广阔的海域上，美国强劲的海军空军力量能轻松地为国家安全提供保障，再加上其不可小觑的核力量，以及她是历史上最安全的战略大国这一事实，美国更是如虎添翼。

Equally significant, America has an extremely sophisticated, productive economy. Despite its meteoric economic rise over the past three decades, China cannot yet hope to match America’s accumulated economic capabilities.

而且，美国经济已经达到极其成熟、发达的水平。尽管中国经济在过去的三十年里迅猛发展，其要想与美国日积月累的雄厚经济实力相抗衡仍是无望的。

And the American culture is pervasive across the globe. The political values enshrined in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution have inspired populations around the world for more than two centuries. American literature, movies, and music permeate foreign societies—especially appealing to young people in those societies.

另外，美国的文化如今已渗透到世界各个角落。两百多年了，《独立宣言》及《美国宪法》中庄严载入的政治价值取向为这个星球上的人带来了多少启发。美国的文学、电影、音乐已经渗透到多少国外社会中，尤其又吸引了其中多少的青少年。2

But U.S. actions—especially over the past decade—are dissipating many of those precious advantages. And China is the principal beneficiary of such folly.

然而，美国的所作所为（尤其是在过去的十年间）却在大量浪费这种种无比珍贵的优势。中国正是此间的最大受益者。

Washington’s spendthrift habits—which have produced annual federal budget deficits exceeding $1.5 trillion—not only weaken America, but give China important diplomatic and economic leverage. China is now the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt. Thus far, Beijing has been subtle about using that leverage, but U.S. officials are all too aware of the vulnerability such dependence creates.

America’s expensive military role contributes to the chasm of debt. The combined costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars currently run more than $125 billion a year, and the tally since 2001 is more than $1.2 trillion. And that is just in direct costs to date. Future obligations (for example to wounded veterans) and indirect costs to the American economy may run another $3 trillion or more. Washington’s insistence on policing the planet and subsidizing the defense of its European and East Asian allies leads to an overall military budget of more than $700 billion—nearly as much as the rest of the world combined. That is a financial hemorrhage that Beijing can—and does—happily avoid.

Global meddling is also damaging the American brand with respect to political values and even popular culture. That is especially apparent in the Muslim world, where public opinion surveys reveal that positive views of the United States now sometimes languish in the single digits. But America’s popularity has waned even in Europe and other formerly very friendly regions. Even as Washington’s aggressive behavior alienates populations, especially in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, China is cultivating countries in those regions, portraying itself as a less intrusive, more cooperative political and economic partner.

 国际干预同样也正在给美国标志性的政治价值取向甚至流行文化蒙上阴影。这一点在穆斯林世界表现得尤为明显。穆斯林世界的民意调查显示，现在对美国持正面看法的民众比率时而陷入个位数的尴尬中。然而，甚至在欧洲及其他表现出友好态度的国家地区，美国的受欢迎程度已经跌落。而且，正当美国的侵略性行为疏远了其与许多国家—尤其是亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲这些地区的国家—的关系时，中国却在与这些国家发展友好关系，把自己描绘成一个入侵性低、合作性高的政治经济伙伴。

Many of China’s diplomatic and political gains in the international arena are because of America’s self-inflicted wounds. Washington’s decision to undertake multiple military interventions and nation-building missions, from the Balkans to the Hindu Kush, will probably astonish future historians. If the current mission in Libya becomes something more than a brief affair in which the United States plays a very limited role, that intervention will be added to the growing list of U.S. foreign policy blunders.

中国在国际舞台上获得的许多外交成就和政治成就都是在美国自讨苦吃的情况下占到的便宜。政府决定将对自巴尔干半岛至兴都库什山（位于阿富汗境内）这一区域的国家实行军事干预及国家建设干预，未来的历史学家或许会被美国政府的这一政策吓一大跳。假使本次美国在利比亚执行的任务不再单纯，美国在其中扮演的角色不再单纯，那么本次军事干预将会成为美国外交策略中越来越多的失误之一。

Perhaps Chinese nationalists will be lucky, and the U.S. political and policy elite will continue to pursue expensive, bloody chimeras in the Third World and continue to subsidize the defense of free-riding security clients. But it’s also possible that more frugal, realistic leadership will emerge in Washington. And if that happens, China’s journey down the road toward the status as the world’s premier power may encounter some major speed bumps, perhaps even some large potholes.

也许中国的民族主义者会继续走运，也许美国的政界精英会在第三世界的国家中继续做着依靠昂贵开销和频繁使用武力来取得胜利的白日梦，继续为那些搭顺风车的国家提供国防补贴。但是，这样一种情况也是可能的：政府中会出现更注重节俭更脚踏实地的领袖。如若它真的发生了，那么中国直达世界头号强国的道路之上也许会遇见一些庞大的减速路障，甚至是一些巨大的路坑。