藏妖的全部作品:下注中国未来：世界第二大经济体的未来走向将给世界带来巨大冲击

作者：PETER SIRIS 发表日期：2011年3月8日

de la Rey/Bloomberg

摄影：de la Rey 图片来源：彭博社

China has the second-largest economy in the world, and the largest population. As it continues to modernize, the government will need to address income inequality among its citizens.

中国的经济体居世界第二，人口全球第一。在她现代化进程中，随之而来的贫富差距问题也亟需解决。2

China is now the second largest economy in the world, so what happens there will have a significant impact on the investments Americans make.

      中国已经是世界第二大经济体，因此她未来的走向将给美国的相关投资造成严重影响。

As China focuses on improving the standard of living of its people, certain industries, like food and agriculture, health care and autos, will do especially well.

      由于中国正举国致力于改善民生，这给一些行业的发展创造了很好的契机，像食品和农业、医疗服务和汽车业都将得到很好的发展。

China is a major trading partner of the U.S. It has $3 trillion in U.S. dollars and has been financing our deficit. In many ways, it's a first-world country, even more advanced than the U.S.

      中国也是美国主要的贸易伙伴。中国正提供经费给美国以弥补其财政赤字，已购买的美国国债达3万亿。在一些方面，中国甚至超过美国居世界第一。

While some cities, like Beijing, are congested, the transportation system is more efficient than in our country.

      虽说中国的一些城市——就像北京——已经超级臃肿，但是她交通系统的运行效率还是好于美国。

Last night, while on a business trip, I got to the airport in Fuzhou 35 minutes before my flight and had no problem making the plane. When I arrived in Shanghai, my luggage was waiting for me on the baggage carrousel. What's the likelihood of that happening at LaGuardia?

      就在昨晚我的一次商业旅程，我在飞机起飞前35分钟才赶到机场，但是并没有造成我航班的延误。在我抵达上海的时候，我的行李早已经到了。如果换作在拉瓜迪亚机场，又是什么一番景象呢？

The day before, I'd taken a train from Rian, a third-tier city, to Fuzhou. It was not one of those super-fast trains you may have read about. It only cruised at a smooth 150 miles per hour, covering the 225 miles with stops in 90 minutes. It takes Amtrak's Acela nearly three times longer to cover the same distance between New York and Boston or Washington. China is building four bridge and tunnel projects several of which are 20 miles long, while we can't seem to build another tunnel under the Hudson River.

      前天，我坐火车从瑞安到福州，瑞安在中国只是个三线城市，虽说这班次不是你从媒体上了解的那种超高速火车，它的时速只保持150公里每小时，但是行程225公里、再加上沿站的停留时间，它总耗时才90分钟。而同样长的行程从纽约到波士顿或者华盛顿，在美国得多花近2倍的时间。中国在造的四项桥梁和隧道工程，其中不乏长20公里的工程，但是我们却不能在哈得孙河下再建一条隧道。

The speed of change in China is extraordinary. Yesterday, I visited a tourist park called Yunding, run by a company called China Yida. (Full disclosure: I have invested in all of the companies mentioned in this column.) It took China Yida one year to construct this park, which is in the middle of rugged mountains. Building a similar park in the U.S. would have taken 10 years - only after the developer managed to get approval from the Environmental Protection Agency and other government regulators.

      速度在中国获得惊人的提升。昨天我参观了由中国亿达公司运营的一个名为云顶的宿营地。（顺便提一下，在这篇文章中所提到的所有公司，我都参观过。）就一年时间亿达公司就在巍巍的群山中建成这个营地。如果在美国要建类似的营地，那得花10年时间——这还不算获得环境保护署和其他政府协调机构的批文所耗的时间。2

I also visited Sorl Auto Parts, a manufacturer of hydraulic brakes and other parts for heavy-duty trucks as well as cars. The factory was working two shifts a day, six days a week, and every work station was occupied. The factory was highly automated, with modern production techniques, not thousands of workers doing hand labor.

      我也参观了瑞安汽车零部件有限公司，一个重型卡车也包括汽车上用的液压制动器和其他部件的制造商。工厂两班倒，每周上6天，并没有一个工作站闲置。工厂已经高度自动化，采用先进的技术，不再见到大量的手工作业者。 2

While China is moving very fast, there's real concern over the imbalance between rich and poor. Just yesterday, I watched a CNN report discussing how the government is worried about events in the Mideast spreading to China, when the screen abruptly went dark. Many people in China are very outspoken. They know change is going to come, but the government is still very sensitive to external criticism.

      中国正快速发展，同样也引发对贫富差距加大的忧虑。就在昨天CNN的报道正在谈论政府正忧心中东事件会蔓延到中国时，信号突然中断。虽说中国的许多人都是非常坦率，他们都知道正在发生的一些变革，但是中国政府还是对外国的相关评论非常敏感。

Next year, a new team of leaders will take over China. They're already giving signals that they're going to be more sensitive to social issues, focusing on improving the standard of living of the poor, increasing funding for health care, controlling inflation and lowering the imbalance between rich and poor.

      明年换届，中国领导班子将更迭。他们已经向外界散布信号，表明下一届政府班子将更加敏感于社会问题、关注改善低收入人群生存条件、增加拨款用于卫生保健、控制通货膨胀并且缩短贫富差距。

What does this mean for U.S. investors?

那么，这些对众多美国投资者而言，意味着什么呢？

The Chinese currency, the yuan, should continue to rise against the dollar. This should be good for U.S. exporters. Wages will go up in China, which should be bad for companies that rely on Chinese imports in clothing, toys and electronics, as well as for U.S. consumers, who'll pay more.

      人民币兑美元汇率还会增加。这对美国出口有利。对中国出口不利。但随着中国工资水平还在增长，这对赖以从中国进口的美国企业而言，这也一样不是一个好消息，这就导致像服装、玩具和电子产品等等的消费品价格上涨。

The Chinese will use their higher-valued currency to make more acquisitions in the U.S. and other countries. Natural resources and manufacturing should be targets. Lots of money will be made on takeovers in these areas.

      人民币变得更值钱了，中国将用它们在美国和其他国家内作更多兼并的动作。大量的钱将被用在自然资源和制造业的收购上面，这些行业是关注点。

As China's government does more to improve the lives of Chinese citizens, certain industries and companies open to U.S. investors will benefit.

      在中国政府致力于改善民生的时候，美国投资者参与的企业和公司也肯定得以收益。

I am buying fertilizer companies like Yongye and China Green Agriculture; food companies like American Lorain, Yuhe and China Marine; supermarket companies like QKL Stores; drug companies like China Pharma; auto companies like Wonder Auto Technology; petrochemical companies like Keyuan; and tourism companies like China Yida.

      我正买入的行业和公司包括：肥料公司比如永业公司和中国绿色农业公司等，食品公司比如美国洛雷恩、育和和中国船舶，零售业比如科隆商店，制药公司比如中国制药，汽车公司比如万得汽车技术，石化公司比如科源，旅游公司比如中国亿达。

China has come a long way, but the government is still concerned that popular rebellions like those in the Mideast could spread. The nation has built first-world infrastructure. Now it will try to help limit the imbalance between rich and poor and quell potential dissatisfaction.

      中国已经多年处于社会稳定，中国政府还是绷紧神经，担心就像中东一样叛乱会得以传播。中国建成的公共设施已经处于世界第一。现在她正致力于帮助消除贫富差距，平息潜在的对立。2

As it does, it will open investment opportunities for Americans in both the U.S. and China.

      也确实，中国将给美国和已经在中国的美国人提供许多投资机会。

Your Money columnist Peter Siris is an investment manager at Guerrilla Capital in Manhattan.

      你的财富专栏作家Peter Siris也是曼哈顿散户投资专家