分析：如果人民币升值40%Consequences of stronger renminbi begin to dawn on US

The last time US unemployment hit double figures was in the early 1980s, when one of the hit films was Red Dawn, a tale of a frustrated Soviet invasion of Colorado that played on the economic insecurity of the time.

上次美国失业率达到两位数水平是在上世纪80年代初，当时有部热映影片《赤色黎明》(Red Dawn)，讲述的是苏联入侵科罗拉多遭遇失败的故事，反映了人们的经济不安全感。

With the number of people out of work hovering around the same level again, Red Dawn is being dusted off for a remake. Except this time it is the Chinese, not the Soviets, who are the baddies. The film begins with the Chinese army taking over Detroit.

随着美国失业率再度徘徊在两位数水平，人们把《赤色黎明》翻了出来重拍。只是这次反派人物从苏联人换成了中国人。在影片开头，中国军队占领了底特律。

In such a climate it should come as no surprise that China’s currency is becoming a hot-button political issue again.

在这样的环境下，中国汇率再度成为热门政治议题就不足为奇了。

Barack Obama, president, recently intensified his calls for China to revalue its currency, arguing that more exports to Asia would mean “hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of jobs here in the US”.

美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)最近以更强硬姿态呼吁中国让人民币升值，他提出，对亚洲的出口增加，将意味着“美国几十万，甚至几百万的就业岗位”。

An estimate by the Peterson Institute of International Economics that the renminbi is undervalued by 41 per cent against the dollar was widely picked up in the US, adding to the popular view that China has a large and unfair advantage coming out of the crisis.

彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute of International Economics)估计，人民币兑美元汇率被低估了41%。这个数字在美国得到广泛认可，增强了以下流行观点：中国在摆脱危机时拥有巨大的不公平优势。

Financial markets are also buzzing with speculation that China is about to make a currency move. Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist and “Brics” guru, caused a stir last week when he said “something is brewing in Beijing”.

金融市场也在风传，中国即将采取汇率行动。高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家、“金砖四国”权威吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O’Neill)上周表示，“北京正在酝酿着什么”。此言引起了轰动。

This is not the place to rehearse the arguments about appreciation, other than to say that they are becoming stronger as Chinese inflation rises. And the Peterson Institute was not actually recommending a 41 per cent appreciation, but only trying to put a number on the level of undervaluation. Most economists expect only a very modest increase in the value of the renminbi.

这里不是要再排演一场升值辩论，而只是说，随着中国通胀上升，升值的理由正变得越来越充足。彼得森研究所也不是真的建议升值41%，而只是试图用数字来表示低估的程度。多数经济学家预计，人民币只会非常小幅度地升值。

Yet it is worth pointing out that a revaluation of that level would actually exacerbate the very fears behind a film such as the new Red Dawn. Aimed at levelling the playing field, it could instead change the way many people think about China.

但是值得指出的是，如果人民币升值41%，实际上会加重潜藏在新《赤色黎明》等影片背后的恐慌。让人民币升值本意是为了营造公平的竞争环境，但结果反而可能改变很多人看待中国的目光。

The Chinese economy is currently the third largest in the world measured in dollar terms, just behind Japan. A 41 per cent appreciation in the renminbi would catapult China way beyond Japan and leave it half the size of the US. When Mr O’Neill forecast that China would overtake the US by 2027, some scoffed. All of a sudden those guestimates would start to look a lot more on the money.

按美元计算，中国目前是全球第三大经济体，仅次于日本。如果人民币升值41%，中国的经济规模将骤增至美国的一半，遥遥领先于日本。奥尼尔当初预测中国经济到2027年将超过美国时，一些人嗤之以鼻。突然之间，这些推测将开始更加注重人民币汇率的因素。

The US dwarfs China in spending on research and on its military and will do so for years to come. But after a big revaluation, China’s budgets in these areas would be equivalent to about a quarter of those in the US – enough to seem like a real competitive threat.

美国的研发和军事开支让中国相形见绌，在今后许多年内，这种状况不会改变。但如果人民币大幅升值，中国在这些方面的预算将相当于美国的四分之一左右——看上去足以构成真正的竞争威胁。

One of the things that would not change is the value of China’s mammoth foreign exchange reserves, which have been the subject of so much misplaced angst about Beijing becoming the US’s banker. But what about China’s commercial banks? ICBC was already the biggest bank in the world last year by market capitalisation: after a 40 per cent currency appreciation its mainland shares would give it a market value double that of JPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank. PetroChina would be one and a half times the size of ExxonMobil. No prizes for guessing what US investment bankers would be telling Chinese companies.

有一件事不会改变，那就是中国巨额外汇储备的价值。这些储备引发了对于中国将成为美国财产储蓄机构的不必要担忧。但中国的商业银行呢？中国工商银行(ICBC)去年就已是全球市值最大的银行。如果人民币升值41%，该行在中国内地的股份将使其市值达到美国最大银行摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的两倍。中石油(PetroChina)的市值将是埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)的1.5倍。不用猜也知道美国投资银行家会跟中国企业说些什么。

By this stage, economists are probably grumbling that exchange rates only reflect relative prices and that a big appreciation would not give the Chinese government a single renminbi more to spend on scientists or soldiers.

在现阶段，经济学家们大概会说，汇率只反映相对价格，即使人民币大幅升值，中国政府也不会在科学家或士兵身上多花一块钱。

But there is a bigger point. When some of the more extravagant claims about “China’s century” are made, plenty of people – myself included – often point to the many obstacles ahead and stress how poor a country China still is. Yet maybe the fact that the currency has been kept so artificially low has obscured just how far China has already come.

但还有更重要的一点。当一些有关“中国世纪”的更宏大猜测出炉时，包括我在内的许多人常常会提到未来面临的诸多障碍，以及中国仍是一个多么贫穷的国家。然而，人民币被人为大幅低估的事实，或许掩盖了中国真正的崛起程度。

The revamped Red Dawn says something about the anxieties that China is already provoking. With a stronger currency China would loom even larger in the US consciousness. It would reinforce the perception that China is not just a rival for the distant future but is swiftly becoming an economic and military match for the US.

翻拍的《赤色黎明》体现了中国已经造成的焦虑。随着人民币走强，中国在美国的意识中将进一步放大。它也将加强人们的以下观点：对美国来说，中国不仅是遥远未来的对手，而且中国的经济和军事实力正在迅速赶上美国。

The phrase “be careful what you ask for” works as well in Chinese as in English.

英文警句“当心你想要的成了真”(Be careful what you ask for)，放在中文里也同样适用。