香港——人民币套利“天堂”？Hong Kong price differentials create renminbi openings

If Beijing had its way, China would transform the renminbi into an international medium of exchange without granting any concessions to the speculators desperate to get their hands on the currency.

如果中国政府能够按自己的意愿行事，它会把人民币打造为一种国际交换媒介，同时不向那些渴望“染指”人民币的投机者作出任何让步。

But things are not that simple. Policymakers are discovering the renminbi trade settlement programme – the year-and-a-half-old scheme that allows Chinese companies to settle cross-border trade deals in their own currency – is more intimately linked to financial speculation than many would like to admit.

但事情并非如此简单。政策制定者们发现，人民币贸易结算机制与金融投机之间关联的密切程度，超出了许多人能够接受的水平。这一机制已施行了一年半，允许中国企业以本币进行跨境交易结算。

A hint of this came on December 23, when the Hong Kong Monetary Authority – the territory’s monetary guardian, which is working closely with the People’s Bank of China – sent a cautionary letter to banks in the territory.

去年12月23日发生的事情就说明了这一点。当时香港金管局(HKMA)向在港的各家银行发出了一封警告信。金管局是香港的货币监管机构，与中国央行(PBOC)有着密切合作。

As well as announcing technical adjustments to the rules governing the use of renminbi in the special administrative region, the HKMA made it clear banks must boost their efforts to prevent companies from using phoney trade documents to gain access to the mainland currency.

金管局在信中宣布，将对在特别行政区使用人民币的相关规定进行技术调整。此外，该机构还明确表示，各银行必须采取加大力度，防止企业伪造贸易文件以获得人民币额度。

“Particular attention should be paid to transactions in large amounts requested by new customers, or transactions between entities that are related to each other,” it said.

“应特别关注新客户提出的大额交易要求，或关联实体之间的交易，”金管局在信中表示。

Illicit flows of money are nothing new: China has long battled against speculators who sneak money past its strict capital controls under the guise of trade. But before mid-2009, all of China’s imports and exports had to be settled in US dollars or other foreign currencies. Now that the renminbi is involved, the stakes are higher.

资金非法流动的现象并不新鲜：中国长期以来一直在打击假借贸易名义、逃避其严格资本管制的投机者。但在2009年年中以前，中国所有的进出口贸易都必须以美元或其它外币结算。现在人民币参与结算，风险也相应增大。

“The capital controls in China mean there is a huge arbitrage opportunity for anyone who can get past them,” says John Greenwood, Invesco chief economist and architect of Hong Kong’s exchange rate mechanism.

“中国的资本管制意味着，能够规避管制的人将获得巨大的套利机会，”景顺投资(Invesco)首席经济学家、香港联系汇率制度设计者祈连活(John Greenwood)表示。

Bankers say only a small fraction of cross-border trade settled in renminbi is likely to be fraudulent. Even so, they concede one of the key reasons for the spectacular boom in renminbi trade settlement in recent months is that Chinese companies and their trading partners are taking advantage, legally, of pricing differentials between the mainland market and the nascent renminbi market in Hong Kong.

银行家表示，只有一小部分以人民币结算的跨境贸易可能存在欺诈行为。尽管如此，他们也承认，最近几个月人民币贸易结算极其火热的关键原因之一，是中资企业及其贸易伙伴正在合法地利用大陆市场和香港新兴人民币市场之间的价差进行牟利。

International trade worth Rmb340bn was settled in renminbi between June and November 2010, compared with zero before July 2009, when Beijing moved to reduce its reliance on the US dollar and allowed the renminbi to become an international medium of exchange.

2010年6月至11月间，共有价值3400亿元人民币的国际贸易以人民币结算，而在2009年7月之前，这一数字还是零。当时，中国政府开始采取措施减少对美元的依赖，允许人民币成为国际贸易结算货币之一。

The major catalyst for the scheme came in July, when regulators lifted restrictions blocking the free flow of the renminbi in Hong Kong. Since then, the territory’s renminbi-denominated financial markets have blossomed. Critically, renminbi exchange rates and interest rates in Hong Kong have departed from those on the mainland, which are subject to government control. “This market is growing at breakneck speed,” says Sundeep Bhandari, Asia head of markets at Standard Chartered.

该计划的一个重要催化剂出现在去年7月份，当时监管机构取消了人民币在香港自由流通的限制。此后，香港以人民币计价的金融市场开始蓬勃发展。至关重要的是，香港的人民币汇率和利率与内地开始分化——内地的汇率和利率受到政府管控。“这个市场正在以惊人的速度增长，”渣打银行(Standard Chartered)亚洲区市场主管彭达贤(Sundeep Bhandari)表示。

Fervent demand for renminbi from international investors has driven down rates in Hong Kong and thereby created incentives for companies considering using the renminbi for trade or financing. Foreign exporters have cottoned on to the fact that the renminbi-dollar exchange rate is at a premium in Hong Kong compared with the mainland (see chart). To arbitrage the two markets, these companies accept renminbi as payment from Chinese importers, then swap the cash into dollars at the more attractive offshore exchange rate.

国际投资者对人民币的狂热需求，压低了香港市场人民币的利率，从而让企业产生了使用人民币进行贸易或融资的动机。外国出口商认识到，与中国内地相比，人民币兑美元汇率在香港存在溢价（见图）。

为了在两个市场间进行套利，这些公司从中国进口商那里接受人民币付款，然后以更具吸引力的离岸汇率将其兑换成美元。

“There’s an incentive for the Chinese importer and foreign exporter to settle in renminbi and split the difference,” says Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Crédit Agricole.

“中国进口商和外国出口商都存在以人民币结算、并分享差价的动机，”法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)的策略师达利乌斯•科瓦尔奇克(Dariusz Kowalczyk)表示。

Companies can issue bonds at much lower rates in Hong Kong than on the mainland. Chinese government bonds, the best reference, yield as much as 2 percentage points less in the offshore market (see chart). In an area that is being scrutinised by regulators, some large companies with operations in Hong Kong and the mainland are even using the trade settlement scheme, in conjunction with currency derivatives, to capture the difference between onshore renminbi interest rates and the much lower offshore dollar interest rates.

在香港，企业能够以远低于内地的利率水平发行债券。以最佳参考标准中国政府债券为例，在境外市场，其收益率要比内地市场低2个百分点（见图）。在这个监管机构密切关注的领域，一些在香港和内地均拥有业务的大公司甚至更进一步，利用人民币贸易结算机制，并辅以货币衍生工具，以获取本地人民币利率和低得多的离岸美元利率之间的差价。

“It’s true that six months ago, almost all of the renminbi so-called trade flows that you saw were this arbitrage game. But now the genuine trade flows are becoming as important if not more important than the arbitrage flows,” says a Hong Kong banker.

“没错，在6个月前，几乎所有的所谓人民币贸易流动都属于这种套利游戏。但现在，真正的贸易流动正变得与套利流动同样重要——或者更为重要，”一位香港银行家表示。

As Hong Kong’s renminbi markets expand and more companies adopt the renminbi for trade, Beijing is likely to find the distinction between “genuine” trade flows and the more speculative equivalent ever harder to distinguish.

随着香港人民币市场的扩大，以及更多的公司采用人民币进行贸易结算，中国政府很可能会发现，自己越来越难以区分“真正的”贸易流动和更具投机性的流动。