上海仍无法超越香港Why Shanghai isn’t challenging Hong Kong

“Shanghai will become Asia’s finance center,” the Hong Konger said dejectedly. With “power tilting to the mainland,” he continued, “Hong Kong will become an afterthought.”

这位香港人沮丧地表示：“上海将成为亚洲的金融中心。”他接着说道：“随着实力向内地倾斜，香港将排在后面。”

Is he right? Are the doomsday scenarios that have haunted Hong Kong since the handover in 1997 finally coming true?

他说的对吗？自1997年回归之后一直伴随着香港的末日情景，最终会成为现实吗？

It might appear so as towering skyscrapers like the just-opened HSBC towers in the IFC dot the Shanghai skyline. Investment banking profits are soaring as Chinese companies like Youku skip the HKSE to list in America. Trying to cash in on profits, financial institutions have announced mad hiring sprees: Citigroup for one will triple its mainland employees to 10,000. Every week a billion-dollar hedge fund or private equity firm seems to announce an office there.

随着在国金中心(IFC)刚刚开业的汇丰(HSBC)大楼等摩天大厦点缀在上海的天际，或许情况看起来的确如此。当优酷(Youku)等中国企业跳过香港交易所(HKSE)前往美国上市，投资银行业的利润正大幅飙升。为了利用这些利润，金融机构掀起了招聘狂潮：仅花旗集团(Citigroup)一家企业，就准备将其内地员工总数增加两倍至10000人。似乎每周都有一家规模不下10亿美元的对冲基金或私人股本公司宣布在这里设立办公室。

Yet, as confident now in my adopted city’s growth prospects as I was when I moved to Shanghai a decade ago, Hong Kongers don’t need to fear that Shanghai is poised to replace their home as a financial powerhouse anytime soon for three main reasons:

不过，尽管与10年前刚到上海时一样，我对自己所居住的这座城市的增长前景信心十足，但香港人不必担心上海会在短期内取代香港的金融霸主地位，原因主要有以下三点：

Education, still a thorn

教育仍然是一个问题

First, Shanghai’s talent pool is weak. Although Shanghai middle school students generally outperform Hong Kongers and Americans on standardised tests, the reality is that Shanghai’s education system does not adequately prepare its students for a globalised world.

首先，上海的人才储备较为薄弱。尽管上海中学生在标准化考试中的表现普遍优于香港和美国学生，但实际上，上海的教育体制尚未给学生们做好准备，迎接一个全球化的世界。

They focus too much on rote memory and not enough on training students to think analytically. The biggest obstacle for growth – according to several dozen senior finance executives we’ve spoken to – is not government regulation or corruption but the lack of qualified talent. Turnover often tops 30 per cent a year as loyalty is in short supply.

他们过于注重死记硬背，而不太重视培养学生的分析性思维。在我们接触过的数十位金融业高管看来，增长面临的最大阻碍并不在于政府监管或腐败，而是缺乏合格的人才。由于缺乏忠诚度，上海员工每年的跳槽率往往在30%以上。

Even hiring secretaries is tough as anyone who can do PowerPoint or write an email in English wants to be an analyst. Hong Kong’s relatively strong university system prepares a larger group of students qualified for low and middle management financial sector positions.

由于任何一个会做幻灯片或能用英语写电子邮件的人都想当一名分析师，企业甚至连招聘秘书都十分困难。香港相对强大的大学体系，为金融业的中低管理职位储备了更多的合格学生。

Tax, tax, tax

税收，税收，税收

Second, China’s personal income tax is far too high, which leaves bankers unwilling to relocate to the mainland where the highest-income tax brackets rise to 45 per cent versus the 17.5 per cent flat tax in Hong Kong. Finance executives prefer to be based in Hong Kong and fly into Shanghai during the week – it’s only a 2-hour flight.

其次，中国的个人所得税负过高，这让银行家们不愿迁至内地。内地个人所得税的税率最高可达45%，而香港最高仅为17.5%。金融高管们宁愿把总部设在香港，而选择工作日飞到上海上班——仅需两小时航程。

China’s personal income tax system is going under major reform as it tries to eliminate taxes on poor people to spur more domestic consumption, but it’s doubtful high earners will get any break anytime soon. To stave off inflation and oversized economic disparity, the government is actually increasing taxes on wealthy people through property taxes on luxury apartments and is talking about implementing more capital gains taxes.

中国的个人所得税制度即将经历重大变革——试图降低穷人的税负以刺激内需。但能否在短期内降低高收入者的税负则仍值得怀疑。为了避免通胀和过度的经济差距，中国政府正对高档住宅征收房产税，这实际上增加了富人的税负。中国政府正在讨论征收更多的资本利得税。

Cheap? Not anymore

生活成本低？已非如此

Finally, many wrongly feel Shanghai is a cheap place to live. It is not if you want to buy global brands and pay for international school tuition fees for the children. All those luxury brands like Omega and Zegna that bankers and their significant others like to buy cost 20-30 per cent more than in Hong Kong because of import duties. Car prices are even higher than that, with the Mercedes S600 topping $350,000.

最后，许多人错误地以为上海是一个生活成本较低的城市。如果你希望购买那些全球品牌商品、并让自己的孩子上国际学校，那么生活成本并不低。银行家及其他重要人物喜欢购买的欧米茄(Omega)和杰尼亚(Zegna)等奢侈品牌，由于进口关税原因，比香港贵20%-30%。高档汽车的价格甚至更高——梅赛德斯-奔驰S600(Mercedes S600)轿车高达35万美元。

The reality is that most bankers now enjoy a cheaper life in Hong Kong than Shanghai. Bankers have to justify working 100 hours a week by buying the good things in life – and salaries go farther now in Hong Kong than Shanghai for the finer things.

实际上，大多数银行家目前在香港的生活成本比上海低。银行家们肯定要购买生活中的好东西，以此证明每周工作100个小时是值得的，而且现在香港的薪资水平进一步超过上海，从而可以购买奢侈品。

No, Hong Kong is not about to be eclipsed by Shanghai as a financial powerhouse anytime soon because it has a strong education system, better tax code and is cheaper to live in. Hong Kong cannot sit on its laurels, however, and needs to continue to evolve to remain competitive, as Shanghai is catching on fast.

No，香港的金融霸主地位不会在短期内被上海取代，因为它拥有强大的教育体系、更好的税收制度，以及更低的生活成本。然而，由于上海正在迅速追赶，所有香港不能满足于既有成就，而是需要继续发展以保持竞争力。

Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, a strategic market intelligence firm, and is based in Shanghai.

本文作者是总部位于上海的战略市场信息公司——中国市场研究集团(CMRG)的创始人兼董事总经理