驾驶证被套用:写在暴风雨的前夜（不能不写了）。关于3万亿外汇储备&人民币汇率

好久好久没写东西了。。。觉得再也无事可写，民生多艰，多写又有何益？况且本身家事亦多，装房子烦死人，好在可以高兴的事情是房子装了一年，终于装完了，呵呵。节后尽快搬家咯。

　　但是个人还是经常在关注经济形势的，现在的状况我觉得有点特殊了，觉得应该mark一下了。
　　
　　首先，先附上我南美的客户在9月22号发给我的一份邮件，各位看官，我就不翻译了，英文还是不繁杂，有兴趣的，结合金山词霸看一下哈：
　　
　　Frank, （是我的英文名）
　　
　　I must inform you that in the last two weeks, due to the world economical turmoil, the US$ dollar has raised here more than 10%, what added to the increase of cost of goods in China, we are about 15% to 20% more expensive than a few months ago. This for us is a catastrophic situation.
　　
　　Our sales will diminished due to this in an importantly manner, so it is compulsory to be very cautious as the money is handled.
　　
　　About the exchange rate, you practically do not feel the increasing of the RMB, but for us the dollar is very, very strong, for instance 30 days ago, the dollar was at $462/US$1, last Friday $528/$1US, we had to postpone several orders, because we were not going to be able to sell them. I will be very attentive to check if the money arrive to your account, tks!
　　
　　Best wishes
　　Cri。。。（客户名字隐去）
　　
　　大概的意思是说，客户说，美元相对于当地的货币（智利比索）在过去的两个星期里升值了10%以上，再加上在中国的产品价格本身的调涨（由于原材料、人工上涨，人民币汇率上涨，诸如此类），客户那边购买中国产品的成本相对于几个月以前上升了15-20%以上。然后客户不得不推迟一些新的订单的下达时间，客户他要要注重现金流的安全。
　　
　　然后，我研究了一下经济情况，在9月26号，我就给客户回了邮件如下：
　　
　　Dear Cri…
　　
　　About what you mentioned about USD exchange rate, and about the cost increasing of your side, I am very sorry about it. For recent 1 month, I always notice the exchange between RMB/USD, but I didn't check too much about other currency, recently the RMB/USD exchange rate is always floating between 6.38-6.39, this always keep stable for almost 1 month, I am always thinking and be happy that the exchange rate is quite stable recently, but only after you advise me that USD is increasing against all other currency, then I found the reality is that the RMB is also increasing together with USD against other currencies.
　　
　　The reality is RMB is stick to USD in general(actually RMB increase slowly slowly against USD, but the exchange rate floating will never be sharp, it is just like a soft slop, so that we can say RMB is stick to USD), when USD Index is decreasing, the total cost of the customer will keep stable even RMB is increasing against USD, but when USD Index is increasing, yet RMB still stick to USD.
　　
　　And today, very ridiculous, the government adjusted the RMB/USD exchange rate from 6.39 to 6.37, then I checked the USD Index immediately, the USD Index is still strong...yeah, the problem is, the government feel RMB should be even stronger.
　　
　　I was just talking with our Philippines customer, he said:"USD is strong lately against EURO and other currencies ", then I say:"yeah, only weak against RMB”.
　　
　　The only result is, the customer reduce order from China then transfer the order to other countries, from our side, it looks customer dead, then our company also close since no order.
　　
　　I pure-hearted hope that for you and all other customers, you have chance to buy motorcycle from other countries, then let us die then we will protest, only in this way, the proud government will be aware of that they are not God, the government control will never take the place of "invisible hand".
　　
　　The inflation in China is still ongoing, every month always more than 6%, the cost of the motorcycle was not reduced even a little now, it actually inceasing now, haha...
　　
　　But now, the future price of raw material do is decreasing because the general worrying about the global depression, and to be honest, the total production volume in Chongqing is not that much now, I hope the reduced order will make the cost of spare parts decrease (just like what happen in 2008), then our motorcycle have a chance to reduce price. I believe this is very possible to happen.
　　
　　Best regards
　　Frank
　　
　　当然了，在给客户的邮件里面，我不可能只谈这些废话，我当然是把商务上的事情说完了再说说这些东西，商务的部分，我当然删掉了，哈哈。
　　
　　算了，还是大概翻译一下好了。
　　
　　在22号客户告知我美元在最近两个星期急剧升值了6%以上之后，我马上查了美元指数，确实是在上涨，然后我查了其他的一些主要货币，相对于美元都在下跌。但是当时我发现，人民币仍然是在盯住美元于6.38左右。
　　
　　所以我跟客户说，很不好意思，我一直都关注的是美元对人民币汇率，没有关注其他货币的汇率，我还觉得最近这一个月人民币汇率还挺稳定的哈，一直在6.38左右，心自窃喜。直到现在才发现人民币是在盯住美元在剧烈升值。
　　
　　我说，现实情况是，人民币一直是大体上盯住美元的（事实上人民币是在相对于美元慢慢调整升值，但是汇率的浮动绝对不会非常剧烈，而是一个平缓的上升曲线，所以我们可以大致说，人民币是盯住美元的）。我说，当美元指数在下跌的时候，虽然人民币在相对于美元升值，但是由于美元在贬值，所以客户购买我们中国产品的总成本是维持稳定的。但是现在，当美元指数在上涨的时候，人民币仍然钉死美元，就造成了客户的采购成本剧增。
　　
　　打断一下。哈哈，在这个时候，其实我很想跟客户说，如果人民币真的是盯住一篮子货币而不是钉住美元的，那么现在人民币应该贬值，如果能发生这种事情，我们立马可以给客户调低产品的美元价格，来降低客户的采购成本。我很想这样安慰客户，但是考虑到这个是要给客户降价，我们老大不许我主动这样承诺，我就没说。况且，人民币也没有贬值，我说了也是白说。（这一段是我现在说的，不是邮件里面讲的内容哈）
　　
　　（以下又是邮件内容，注意我邮件是26号写的）今天，非常滑稽的，政府调整了人民币兑美元中间价，从6.39调到6.37，居然人民币相对于美元还升值了。我说，我马上查了美元指数，美元仍然非常坚挺…啊，问题是，咱们政府认为，人民币应该更坚挺