青岛电站阀门有限公司:Realist approach will steady relations with J...

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Realist approach will steady relations with Japan

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2011-9-2 13:27

Illustration: Liu Rui

By Zhou Yongsheng


Yoshihiko Noda became the 95th prime minister of Japan on Tuesday. As a hard-liner among the new generation of Japanese politicians born after World War II, Noda takes a nationalist stand on historical issues and has provoked China in the past.


But politically, Noda's attitudes in foreign affairs are based on two points: sticking to the US while taking a tough line against countries that are viewed as challengers of Japan's interests, such as China. Neither position can make him a successful prime minister.


The most urgent task Noda faces is post-earthquake reconstruction and bringing Japan out of the economic recession. A US mired in its debt crisis may be unable to help Japan. Instead, it is the growing Chinese market that could push Japan's economic growth, so it will be costly if Noda further promotes a hard-line against China.


Admittedly, the US could provide security to Japan, but no country really threatens Japan. Although China's national defense spending is rising, the military strategy of China is defensive. Japan's worries toward China are groundless and its dependence on the US is immature and just a kind of self-consolation.


To what extent will Noda get tough on China? And will a tough policy toward China benefit Japan? Noda should learn lessons from the former Japanese prime minister Naoto Kan.


Believing he could win points by getting tough on China, Naoto Kan took a hard-line on the Diaoyu Islands collision between China and Japan September last year. But unexpectedly, unlike the moderate actions taken toward provocations in the past, China adopted strong countermeasures, which pressed Kan's cabinet to release the Chinese captain in advance and greatly decreased Kan's populatity. Talking tough toward China has its side effects, which Noda should learn from.


Indeed, Noda once promoted provocative ideas such as that Japanese war criminals are not war criminals and Japan should be strictly on guard against China over the Diaoyu Islands. But he was just trying to build his reputation and prop up nationalist support.


If Noda puts these provocative foreign policy suggestions into reality, direct confrontations between China and Japan are bound to happen. Realists in international relations emphasize the balance of power.


Facing a rising China, even the US is unwilling to confront the Asian giant. Therefore, I guess Noda is not brave enough to fulfill his hard-line policy suggestions. Otherwise, he will repeat Naoto Kan's failure.


But Noda will be tough against China to some extent. The most possible situation is he will keep a hard-line but try to avoid head-on confrontations with China, since realist theory in international politics advocates nations to preserve strength while avoiding blind confrontations with others. Therefore, China doesn't need to worry too much about Noda.


As a matter of fact, Japan's fear over a rising China is bigger than China's fears over a hard-liner prime minister. The Liberal Democratic Party, the Democratic Party of Japan and other parties share similar suggestions on international strategies, that is, opposing China's rise and sticking closely to the US.


However, Japan is just being used by the US. Thus such strategy makes Japan quite embarrassed in the international stage.


Noda's cabinet faces severe domestic challenges and could hardly successfully lead the economic development. The aging population, shrinking domestic market, soaring national debt, yen appreciation, and the nuclear leak will all hamper Japan's development and confine the Noda cabinet.


According to the regulations of the DPJ, a new election will be held in September next year. Considering the current political and economic situation of Japan, Noda's chances of holding onto his position are not great. Reviving the domestic economy needs a favorable internal environment. Noda should be cautious.


The author is deputy director of the Japan Study Center at China Foreign Affairs University.
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