防空警报器范围:美国信用评级有史以来首次遭下调，这令华尔街和华盛顿开始奋力应对一个世界新秩序。

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国信用评级有史以来首次遭下调，这令华尔街和华盛顿开始奋力应对一个世界新秩序。
相关报导
标普首次下调美国国债评级
美国评级下调增加中国转型压力
美国债务评级下调 亚洲如何反应
美国降级或引发短期市场动荡
大公下调美国评级 噱头还是先知?
罗杰斯：美国早已失去AAA信用评级
专题：美债危机
在美国被标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)取消AAA信用评级之际，大型银行纷纷为交易部门配备人手，而奥巴马政府官员则对不安的投资者进行“全场紧逼”，为亚洲市场周一开市（纽约时间周日晚间）做好准备。
七大工业国财长和央行行长周日晚间召开电话会议，以应对美国评级下调以及欧洲不断升级的债务危机，并讨论减小金融市场恐慌的方法。七大工业国会后重申了成员国致力于在需要的领域采取协同行动，保证流动性并支撑金融市场运转、金融稳定性和经济增长的承诺。
随着投资者消化美国债务评级下调的影响，亚洲股市周一开盘小幅走低。东京日经平均指数开盘跌1.4%，此前澳大利亚和新西兰股市双双下挫。不过，美国国债市场早盘反应温和，10年期美国国债收益率从上周五的2.563%小幅升至2.579%，而2年期美国国债收益率实际上从0.292%降至0.268%，这与一些分析人士的预测形成了对比；一些分析人士曾预测，市场的最初反应会剧烈的多。
标普下调美国长期债务评级的举措可能会动摇数十年以来金融市场的基础支柱之一：实际上各种主要投资的风险和定价都一直是基于美国债务“没有风险”的观点衡量的。
上周五的评级下调对与各类美国政府有关的实体或持有美国国债的实体带来了影响，从抵押贷款巨头房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)、到大型保险公司、再到证券结算所，不一而足──更不用说是与美国国债收益挂钩的抵押贷款等消费贷款的利率了。
所有这些借款人面临的风险是，美国债务评级下调，即使是遭三大评级公司中的一家下调，也可能造成利率小幅上升。这些成本对每个借款人来说可能不大，但加在一起却可能实际上意味着，在疲弱的经济很难承担更高的利率之际美国信贷的收紧。
未知的不止是评级下调将带来的近期影响，还有可能对未来数月意味着什么。
芝加哥研究公司Bianco Research总裁比安科(Jim Bianco)说，那些说评级下调没关系的人是在假定这事以上周五的声明告终了，而我要说上周五才是刚刚开始。
纽约商品交易所（Comex）周日尾盘电子交易时段黄金创下新的纪录高点，8月交割黄金期货合约触及每盎司1,699.70美元，原因是一些投资者寻求避险。RBC Capital Markets Global Futures副总裁格罗(George Gero)说，在浓烟消散之前，一切都可能受到影响，不过乍一看，这对黄金是个利好。
亚洲市场早盘石油期货每桶跌约2美元，跌幅约3%。澳元跌约1美分，至1.0383美元。
标普将评级下调一级在人们普遍预料之中，大多数分析师和投资者都预计下调后并不会随之出现混乱状况，尤其是在穆迪投资者服务(Moody's Investors Service)和惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)仍保留对美国的最高评级的情况下。但由于上周道指重挫700点之后的金融市场已经十分脆弱，分析师和投资者强调当前环境中的不确定性。
种种情形让人回想起2008年的金融危机，各大银行周日都准备迎接惊悚的周一交易日。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和其他顶级银行选派了资深策略师安抚忧心忡忡的客户。
波士顿资产管理公司Congress Asset Management Co.的投资组合经理安德森(Peter Andersen)说，这种情况没有先例，而那是最让人紧张的事情。当一家公司的债券遭遇评级下调时，我们都知道操作规程是什么样，不过现在这种情况可能出现波及效应。
在华盛顿，共和党和民主党为评级下调而互相指责──虽然债务问题上的政治分化也是标普下调评级的理由之一。
政府官员猛烈抨击标普，在标普承认最初的分析中有一个会计错误之后，政府官员试图削弱这家评级公司的可信度。与此同时，一位财政部官员说，官员们呼吁一些投资者减轻评级下调的短期负面影响。
虽然做好了面临动荡的一天的准备，但美国政府预计投资者将更关注欧洲的债务危机，而不是美国评级下调。白宫还希望投资者将财长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)说他会留任至2012年大选的公告视为稳定的信号。
许多分析师认为，评级下调不太可能引发持有美国国债的大户（如中国和日本）进行大规模的抛售。知情人士说，在20国集团(G20)成员国的副财长上周六晚间的电话会议中，有几个国家表示虽然美国评级遭下调，但它们继续信任美国国债。
同时，一些人推测从长远看，评级下调将会加剧美元地位的衰落，美元是企业以及各国央行、非美国大投资者储备现金的首选货币。
渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)分析师写道，信用评级下调可能是美元长期衰落的又一大步。
Reuters
周一，东京证券交易所的一名员工在看股票指数显示牌。
新出现的一个担忧是，欧洲一个或多个AAA评级国家（比如法国）如果必须承担对陷入财政困境的欧洲外围国家实施救助的更多责任，是否也有可能遭遇评级下调。标普首席经济学家希克斯(Jean-Michel Six)周日对法新社说，法国的评级依然稳定。
七国集团讨论之前，G20副财长周六晚间召开电话会议，会议主要围绕欧债危机，同时也讨论了标普的举措。知情人士说，几个国家的官员表示他们继续信任美国国债。
欧洲各银行正在想办法满足客户的交易需求，其中有些客户可能想从美国国债转至其他政府债券。
若隔夜借贷利率升高，就可能表明投资者信心遭到了削弱。同时或许也表明货币市场的共同基金正在囤积现金，以避免美国国债价格的波动并为可能的赎回做准备。
隔夜借贷市场是银行、公司、货币市场基金及其他机构用来为自己筹措短期资金的地方，这些资金通常是由美国国债担保的贷款或由联邦机构担保的证券。更为人所知的说法是回购协议市场。
国会提高美国债务上限前几天，尽管债务违约不大可能发生，但公司和货币基金囤积现金以防万一，隔夜贷款利率随之上涨。违约问题解决后，国债担保的隔夜贷款利率下降，因为投资者再次将现金投入到回购协议市场中。还有一个原因是，纽约银行（Bank of New York Mellon Corp.）说可能会对一些企业客户的大额存款收取费用。
一个担忧在于，评级下调至AA+可能会使部分贷款人对现金贷款索要更多抵押品，他们认为美国政府证券风险略有增加，特别是机构债券和抵押贷款支持证券。国债及机构证券价格波动性加大也可能会造成这种结果。
摩根士丹利全球利率战略主管凯伦（Jim Caron）在周日下午与客户的电话会议中说，货币基金和贷款人要求更多抵押品的任何举动可能都相当于整个金融系统要求追加保证金。
凯伦说，我们还不知道提供货币及杠杆的经纪商是否会要求增加提供贷款的保证金；如果我们能在不发生额外费用的情况下安然度过，那么我们就会走上从这次降级中恢复的道路。
还有一个问题是，降级是否会令部分机构由于只能持有AAA评级投资的规定而被迫抛售美国国债。基金经理和保险公司已与律师及合规操作专家联手，确定他们现在是否违反了任何内部政策，或是否会被要求抛售组合中的美国国债。但整体来看，大多数人都认为，由于穆迪和惠誉对美国国债的评级仍为AAA，因此几乎不牵涉法律上的问题。
知情人士说，许多投资经理对巴克莱说，他们正在放弃之前针对美国维持AAA评级可能制定的一些规则，并且不打算在市场采取任何激烈的措施。
其中一个争论议题是美国国债收益率今后会有多大幅度的提高。上周，美国国债收益率基本是在下降，因此价格升高，尽管当时许多投资者认为标普即将下调评级。
除了目前的不确定性，有人认为降级意味着更高国债收益率，这种结果最终会在不远的未来发生。
摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）固定收益策略全球主管贝尔顿（Terry Belton）预计，随着时间的推移，美国借贷成本可能会上升约0.6个百分点，以反映债务负担加重的额外风险。这将会使政府借贷成本每年增加约1,000亿美元。
Markets Brace For Downgrade's Toll
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The first-ever credit downgrade of the U.S. left Wall Street and Washington struggling to come to grips with a new world order.
With the U.S. stripped by Standard & Poor's of its triple-A credit rating, big banks brought in staff to man trading desk and Obama administration officials put a full-court press on skittish investors, preparing for the opening of markets in Asia on Sunday evening New York time.
Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven leading economies convened a Sunday evening conference call to address the U.S. ratings downgrade, as well as Europe's escalating debt crisis, and discuss ways to minimize panic in financial markets. The G7 after the call affirmed members' commitment to 'taking coordinated action where needed, to ensuring liquidity, and to supporting financial market functioning, financial stability and economic growth.'
Asian markets opened cautiously lower Monday as investors digested the downgrade's impact. In Tokyo, the Nikkei Stock Average opened 1.4% lower, following drops in Australia and New Zealand. But U.S. Treasury markets were tame early, with yields on 10-year Treasurys up slightly to 2.579% from 2.563% Friday, while the yield on two-year Treasurys actually fell to 0.268% from 0.292%, in contrast to predictions from some analysts of a much more aggressive initial market reaction.
The rating cut by S&P on long-term U.S. debt threatened to upend one of the fundamental underpinnings of the financial markets going back decades: The risks and pricing of practically every major investment have been measured against the idea that the U.S. debt was 'risk free.'
The Friday downgrade had implications for a range of entities with links to the U.S. government or holdings of its debt, running the gamut from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to large insurers to securities clearinghouses─not to mention interest rates on consumer loans such as mortgages that are linked to Treasury yields.
The risk for all these borrowers is that the downgrade, even though by just one of the three major rating firms, could result in slightly higher interest rates. Those costs that might be small for each borrower, but in total could essentially mean a tightening of credit in the country at a time when a weak economy can ill afford higher rates.
The unknowns aren't just how the downgrade will play out immediately but what it may mean months from now.
'People who say this move doesn't matter are assuming it stops with Friday's announcement,' said Jim Bianco, president of Chicago-based Bianco Research. 'I'm saying it only began on Friday.'
Comex gold set a fresh record in electronic trading late Sunday, with the August contract touching $1,699.70 a troy ounce, as some investors sought to shield their wealth. 'Everything is vulnerable until the smoke clears, but at first blush this is good for gold,' said George Gero, vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.
In early trading in Asia, oil futures dropped about $2 a barrel, or about 3%. The Australian dollar slipped about one cent to US$1.0383.
Most analysts and investors didn't expect chaos to follow from the largely expected one-notch cut by S&P, especially with Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings still keeping the U.S. at their top grade. But with the financial markets already fragile after last week's 700-point drop in the Dow, analysts and investors stressed the uncertainty in the situation.
In scenes reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, big banks spent Sunday preparing for a hairy trading day Monday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and other top banks drafted their senior strategists to talk to worried clients.
'We have a lack of precedents for this, and that's the most unnerving thing,' said said Peter Andersen, a portfolio manager at Congress Asset Management Co. in Boston. 'When a corporate bond gets downgraded, we all know the drill, but with this there could be ripple effects.'
In Washington, Republicans and Democrats each blamed the other for the downgrade─even though political polarization over debt was one cause S&P cited for its cut.
Administration officials fired broadsides at S&P, seeking to undermine the credibility of the ratings firm after S&P acknowledged it made an accounting error in its initial analysis. At the same time, officials reached out to a range of investors 'to mitigate any short-term negative impact' from the downgrade, a Treasury official said.
While bracing for a volatile day, the administration anticipates investors will be more focused on the debt troubles in Europe than the downgrade in the U.S. The White House also hopes an announcement from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that he is staying through the 2012 elections will be received by investors as a sign of stability.
Many analysts were suggesting that the downgrade was unlikely to prompt any significant wave of selling by big holders of U.S. Treasurys such as China and Japan. In a call Saturday night among deputy finance officials from the Group of Twenty largest economies, several countries indicated their continued commitment to Treasurys despite the downgrade, a person familiar with the call said.
At the same time, some speculated that longer-term, it could hasten a decline in the U.S. dollar's status as the currency of choice for business and cash holdings by central banks and big non-U.S. investors.
'The credit-rating downgrade may be another significant step in the long- decline of the U.S. dollar,' wrote analysts at Standard Chartered Bank.
One worry that emerged was whether one or more triple-A-rated countries in Europe, such as France, could also be downgraded if they have to shoulder more of a burden for bailing out fiscally strapped countries on the European periphery. S&P's chief economist, Jean-Michel Six, told Agence France Presse on Sunday that France's rating remained stable.
The G7's talks followed a Saturday-night call of deputy finance officials from the Group of 20 largest economies that centered on the European crisis but also addressed the S&P move. Officials from several countries indicated their continued commitment to U.S. Treasurys, a person familiar with the call said.
Banks in Europe were working on ways to satisfy the trading needs of clients if any of them want to move from Treasurys to other government debt.
Any spike in overnight borrowing rates could indicate that investor confidence has been weakened. It might also signal that money-market mutual funds are hoarding cash to avoid volatility in Treasury prices and prepare for possible redemptions.
The overnight funding market, better known as the repo market, is where banks, corporations, money market funds and other institutions make short-term cash loans that are often secured by Treasurys or securities guaranteed by federal agencies.
In the days before Congress raised the U.S. debt ceiling, interest rates on overnight loans jumped as corporations and money funds hoarded cash to protect against an improbable debt default. After the issue was resolved, rates on overnight loans secured by Treasurys declined as investors again put their cash to work in repurchase agreements. This was also in part because Bank of New York Mellon Corp. said it would start charging some corporate customers a fee on large deposits.
One worry is that the rating downgrade to double-A-plus could prompt some lenders to demand more collateral for cash loans, deeming U.S. government securities, particularly agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities, slightly riskier. This could also happen if prices of Treasurys and agency securities became more volatile.
In a Morgan Stanley conference call Sunday afternoon with clients, Jim Caron, global head of interest-rate strategy, said any moves by money funds and lenders to require more collateral would be akin to 'a margin call on the entire financial system.'
'We don't know [yet] if providers of money and leverage will require increased margin for providing funding,' Mr. Caron said, adding: 'If we can get through this where no additional charges are incurred, we will be on a path to recovering from this downgrade.'
Another question was whether the downgrade would force selling in portfolios with mandates to hold only triple-A-rated investments. Money managers and insurance companies huddled with lawyers and compliance specialists to establish whether they were now in violation of any internal policies, or whether they would be required to sell their portfolios of U.S Treasurys. But generally, most people believed that because Treasurys were still rated triple-A at Moody's and Fitch, there were few legal implications.
Many investment managers told Barclays they are waiving rules they may have had in place with respect to the U.S. maintaining a triple-A credit rating, and are not planning any drastic actions in the markets, said people familiar with the matter.
Among the debates was the degree to which U.S. Treasury yields might move higher over time. Last week, Treasury rates were mostly moving lower, and thus prices moved higher, even as many investors believed an S&P downgrade was coming.
Beyond the current uncertainty, some see the downgrade meaning higher Treasury yields are in the offing eventually.
Terry Belton, J.P. Morgan's head of global fixed income strategy, estimated that over time, the U.S. cost of borrowing could rise some 0.60 percentage point to reflect the additional risk of the worsening debt-load. That would add about $100 billion a year to government funding costs.
Tom Lauricella / Matt Phillips / Serena Ng