重庆记者求助热线:中国地方政府总债务达10.7万亿人民币

Chinese local governments owe Rmb10,700bn ($1,650bn) in debt, according to the first national audit of regional finances published by Beijing.

根据中国官方发表的首次针对地方财政收支的全国审计结果，中国各地方政府的债务总额达到10.7万亿元人民币（合1.65万亿美元）。

That amount is equivalent to around 27 per cent of China’s economy and easily outstrips central government’s officially declared debt balance of less than 20 per cent of GDP.

这个数字大约相当于中国经济的27%，而且显著高于官方公布的中央政府不到国内生产总值(GDP) 20%的债务余额。

The new audit provides the most authoritative estimate to date of provincial and city governments’ explicit debts and suggests the problem, although large, is manageable.

此项最新审计是迄今有关各省市政府显性债务的最权威估算，它似乎表明，问题虽然很大，但仍处于可控范围。

“I don’t think government is super-scared this problem is unmanageably large and the amount of loans outstanding is going to cause big problems for the economy,” said Paul Cavey, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities. “The main concern for the government is to make sure the scale of lending doesn’t continue to grow.”

“我不认为政府会太惊恐，担心这个问题大得失控，未偿还的贷款余额将给经济带来大问题，”麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)中国经济研究主管许保罗(Paul Cavey)表示，“政府主要关心的是确保放贷规模不致继续增长。”

Local governments have accumulated an unprecedented mountain of debt in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis after Beijing opened credit floodgates, backing state-owned banks to lend to state-backed infrastructure projects.

2008年全球金融危机过后，北京方面打开信贷闸门，支持国有控股银行向政府支持的基建项目放贷，最终导致地方政府积累了金额空前的债务。

With Rmb9,600bn pumped into the economy in 2009 alone, the move succeeded in jump-starting flagging growth but left serious concerns over the viability of many projects and the indebtedness of local governments nationwide.

仅在2009年一年，中国就向经济注入了9.6万亿元人民币，此举成功地提振了本来陷入低迷的增长，但令人对许多项目的可行性以及全国各地方政府的债务水平产生严重担忧。

The audit confirmed an explosion in borrowing in 2009 when outstanding local debt rose 62 per cent. But it also showed that the government began to get a grip on the problem last year, with debt growth slowing sharply to 19 per cent.

此次官方审计证实2009年借贷呈现爆炸式增长，该年未偿还地方债务大增62%。但此次审计也显示，政府从去年起开始遏制这个问题，债务增长大幅放缓至19%。

Combined with central government debt and other liabilities such as bad bank loans, analysts estimate China’s overall explicit debt load is about 70 per cent of gross domestic product.

据分析师们估算，若算上中央政府债务和银行坏债等其它债务，中国的显性债务总负担达到GDP的70%上下。

But some analysts believe the contingent liabilities of the government are much higher, once debts on the books of state-owned enterprises and other entities implicitly backed by the state are included.

但一些分析师相信，一旦纳入国有企业及国家隐性支持的其它实体账目上的债务，政府背负的或有债务将高得多。

“If you take a very broad view of the Chinese government’s contingent liabilities rather than explicit debt on the books then the number comes to well over 150 per cent of China’s GDP in 2010,” according to Victor Shih, a political economist at Northwestern University in the US. The US has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93 per cent, while Japan’s ratio is over 225 per cent.

“如果你以非常宽泛的眼光来看待中国政府的‘或有债务’，而不仅仅关注账目上的显性债务，那么债务余额将显著高出2010年中国GDP的150%，”美国西北大学(Northwestern University)政治经济学家史宗瀚(Victor Shih)表示。美国的债务与GDP之比为93%，而日本的债务与GDP之比超过225%。

Barred from borrowing money, Chinese local governments have set up arms-length financing vehicles in record numbers to circumvent rules. The national audit office said there were 6,576 such vehicles, holding debts of Rmb4,971bn but previous estimates put the total debt load at closer to Rmb14,000bn.

按规定不得借贷的中国各地方政府，近年设立了创纪录数目的独立融资平台，以绕开相关规则。中国国家审计署表示，全国共有6576家融资平台公司，它们的债务总额为4.971万亿元人民币，但此前估算显示，这些融资平台的债务总负担更接近14万亿元人民币。

Mr Shih said the discrepancy was due to the latest audit taking into account loans to these vehicles that were explicitly guaranteed by local governments. Many loans taken by them are backed by state land or other collateral rather than direct guarantees from local governments.

史宗翰表示，两个数据之所以存在差异，是因为最新审计仅考虑到了这些融资平台获得的有地方政府明确担保的贷款。而这些融资平台获得的许多贷款，是以国有土地或其它抵押品——而非地方政府的直接担保——为抵押的。

“This audit doesn’t present the full scale of local governments’ debt because it narrowly focuses on loans that are explicitly guaranteed,” Mr Shih said.

“这次审计并没有展现地方政府债务的完整规模，因为它狭义地聚焦于得到明确担保的贷款，”史宗翰表示。

Highlighting problems, the audit office noted that some local governments had illegally invested borrowed funds in the stock and property markets, and that some debt was going unpaid or being covered only through new loans.

在介绍当前存在的各种问题时，国家审计署指出，一些地方政府将借来的资金非法投资于股市和楼市，同时一些债务逾期未得到偿还，或只是通过借新债还旧债。

译者/和风