温家宝：物价将稳步下降

此次金融危机爆发距今已有3年左右的时间，在国际社会的共同努力下，全球经济正逐步复苏。但目前仍存在诸多不稳定性，经济复苏仍较为脆弱。全球增长不均衡；发达经济体的失业率仍居高不下；一些国家的政府债务风险有所加提升；通胀压力日益加大。当危机的冲击尚未完全消退，新的风险已然出现。世界各国必须紧密合作，迎接挑战。

金融危机伊始，中国便迅速采取行动，调整了宏观经济政策，以扩大内需，并出台了一项刺激计划，以保持增长、深化改革并改善民生。通过这些举措，我们已成功克服了众多极端困难，并为中国的发展奠定了坚实的基础。

我们这些努力的一个显著成果就是，中国保持了快速稳定的增长。2008年至2010年间，中国国内生产总值(GDP)分别增长了9.6%、9.2%和10.3%，同期消费者价格指数(CPI)增幅则分别为5.9%、-0.7%和3.3%，全国城镇地区新增3380万个就业岗位。今年，中国仍保持了稳健的增长。

中国应对危机的重点是扩大内需，并刺激实体经济，巩固长期发展的基础，由内需驱动增长。我们出台了一项为期两年、规模高达4万亿元人民币（合6180亿美元）的投资计划，内容涵盖基础设施开发、经济结构调整、改善人民福利和保护环境。迄今，全国新建铁路1.08万公里，公路约30万公里，增加了2.1亿千瓦的发电装机容量。我们还加大了对科技的支持力度，鼓励企业进行技术升级和创新。四川汶川地震过后，政府已投入逾1万亿元人民币进行灾后重建，在受灾地区修建了高标准的基础设施和公共设施，并对483万套农村住房和175万套城镇住房进行了重建或加固。目前，灾区已旧貌换新颜。我们还努力改善内需与外需之间的平衡。中国贸易顺差占GDP的比率已从2007年的7.5%降至2010年的3.1%。中国经济的迅速发展和进口增长已成为全球复苏的一个驱动因素。

在应对危机期间，中国在社会福祉方面也取得了长足的进步，而就在几年前，我们对此还力不能及。在构建一个同时覆盖城乡地区的社保体制方面，我们取得了突破性进展。我们已推出了一项针对农村的养老保险机制，今年将覆盖全国60%的村镇。基础城镇医保制度和农村医疗合作社制度，现已覆盖90%以上的人口。目前，所有中国人都能享受免费的义务教育。政府在教育方面的支出已增加到GDP的3.69%。

中国还施行了灵活、审慎的经济政策，并确保它们具有针对性和可持续性。我们的预算赤字和债务余额占GDP的比例，分别低于3%和20%。政府预算赤字在2010年和2011年都得到了削减。自2009年中期以来，我们一直使用货币政策工具吸取过剩的流动性。在2009年第四季度，在维持经济平稳较快增长、进行结构性调整和控制通胀之间取得平衡，被列为宏观调控的主要目标。从2010年1月以来，银行准备金率和基准存贷款利率分别上调了12次和4次。货币和信贷供应因此恢复到了正常水平。2010年6月，人民币汇率机制改革有所加快，人民币兑美元汇率已升值5.3%。

人们担心中国能否遏制住通胀，同时维持其快速发展步伐。对此我明确给予肯定的回答。物价快速上涨是许多国家面临的一个共同挑战，对于其他新兴经济体和中国来说尤其如此。中国已将限制价格上涨作为宏观经济调控的首要任务，并推出了一套有针对性的政策。这些政策已经奏效。总体价格水平目前处在一个可控的区间，而且预计将稳步下降。在连续七年的粮食增产后，中国目前拥有充足的粮食供应。主要工业品供过于求。进口正在迅速增长。今年价格上涨将得到有力的控制，我们有这个信心。

中国如今正处在一个发展的新起点上。我们已经通过了“十二五规划”，其中提出要转变发展模式。我们将继续对经济进行结构性调整，促进研发和教育，节约能源和资源，推动生态和环境保护，缩小地区差距和城乡差距。中国的工业化和城市化进程正在提速。中国经济正日益走向市场化与国际化。我们完全有能力维持经济平稳快速增长。

中国将继续与其他国家一道承担共同的责任。我们应当齐心协力，加强宏观经济政策的协调，对抗保护主义，改进国际货币体系，应对气候变化及其他挑战。我们应欢迎新兴经济体的快速发展，尊重不同的发展模式，加大对那些最不发达国家的帮助，以增强它们自我发展的能力，并促进全球经济强劲、持续和均衡的发展。

本文作者系中国国务院总理温家宝

About three years havepassed since the eruption of the financial crisis. Thanks to the jointefforts of the international community, the global economy isrecovering. Yet there remain many uncertainties, and the recovery isfragile. Global growth is uneven; unemployment in developed economiesremains high; government debt risks in some countries have mounted;inflationary pressure is increasing. While the shock of the crisis hasyet to end, new risks have emerged. The world must co-operate closely tomeet the challenges.

China has moved swiftly to fight the financial crisis, adjustingmacroeconomic policy to expand domestic demand, and introducing astimulus package to maintain growth, advance reform and improve people’slives. By taking these steps, we have overcome extreme difficulties andlaid a solid foundation for China’s development.

A notable result of our response to the crisis is that China hasmaintained steady and fast growth. Between 2008 and 2010, China’s grossdomestic product grew at an annual rate of 9.6, 9.2 and 10.3 per centrespectively. The consumer prices index over the same period was 5.9,-0.7 and 3.3 per cent; 33.8m new urban jobs were created. China hasmaintained sound growth this year.

The thrust of China’s response to the crisis is to expand domesticdemand and stimulate the real economy, strengthen the basis forlong-term development and make growth domestically driven. We haveimplemented a two-year, Rmb4,000bn ($618bn) investment programmecovering infrastructure development, economic structural adjustment,improving people’s well-being and protection of the environment. As aresult, 10,800 km of railways and about 300,000 km of roads have beenbuilt and 210m kW of installed capacity for power generation have beenadded. We have boosted support for science and technology including byencouraging companies to carry out technological upgrading andinnovation. More than Rmb1,000bn have been spent in rebuilding after theWenchuan earthquake. In the affected areas, quality infrastructure andpublic facilities were constructed, and 4.83m rural houses and 1.75murban apartments were rebuilt or reinforced. The quake-hit areas havetaken on a new look. We are working to improve the balance betweendomestic and external demand, with the share of trade surplus in GDPdropping from 7.5 per cent in 2007 to 3.1 in 2010. China’s rapid growthand increase in imports are an engine driving the global recovery.

In fighting the crisis, China has madehuge strides in developing social programmes, which was beyond ourmeans just a few years ago. We have made breakthroughs in building asocial security system covering urban and rural areas. We haveintroduced a rural old-age insurance scheme which will cover 60 per centof counties in China this year. The basic urban medical insurancescheme and rural co-operative medical care scheme now cover more than 90per cent of the population. All Chinese now have access to freecompulsory education. Government spending on education has grown to 3.69per cent of GDP.

It has also pursued flexible and prudent economic policies, andensured they are targeted and sustainable. Our budget deficit and debtbalance are respectively below 3 and 20 per cent of GDP. The governmentbudget deficit has been cut in 2010 and 2011. Since mid-2009, we haveused monetary policy tools to absorb excess liquidity. In the fourthquarter of 2009, to strike a balance between maintaining steady and fastgrowth, conducting structural adjustment and managing inflation wereset as the main goal of macroeconomic regulation. Since January 2010,the required reserve ratio and benchmark deposit and lending rates havebeen raised 12 times and four times respectively. So growth in money andcredit supply has returned to normal. In June 2010, reform of therenminbi exchange rate regime was advanced, and the renminbi hasappreciated 5.3 per cent against the US dollar.

There is concern as towhether China can rein in inflation and sustain its rapid development.My answer is an emphatic yes. Rapid price rises pose a common challengeto many countries, especially other emerging economies and China. Chinahas made capping price rises the priority of macroeconomic regulationand introduced a host of targeted policies. These have worked. Theoverall price level is within a controllable range and is expected todrop steadily. The output of grain, of which there is now an abundantsupply, has increased for seven years in a row. There is an oversupplyof main industrial products. Imports are growing fast. We are confidentprice rises will be firmly under control this year.

China is now at a new starting point in its drive for development. Wehave adopted the 12th five-year plan which calls for shifting thedevelopment model. We will continue to pursue economic structuraladjustment, boost research and development, and education, save energyand resources, promote ecological and environmental conservation, andnarrow the regional and urban-rural gap. China’s drive forindustrialisation and urbanisation is gathering pace. Its economy isincreasingly market-oriented and internationalised. We are fully capableof sustaining steady and fast economic growth.

China will continue to work with other countries with commonresponsibilities. We should make concerted efforts to strengthen theco-ordination of macroeconomic policies, fight protectionism, improvethe international monetary system and tackle climate change and otherchallenges. We should welcome the fast development of emergingeconomies, respect different models of development, increase help toleast developed countries to enhance their capacity forself-development, and promote strong, sustainable and balanced growth ofthe global economy.

The writer is China’s premier