郑钧刘芸摇滚藏獒访谈:标普将中国房产行业评级前景降至负面 S&P downgrades China property sector as cash restrictions bite

Standard & Poor’s has downgraded its credit rating outlook on China’s property sector to negative, pointing to worsening borrowing conditions and a likely slump in sales volumes.

评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)已将对中国房产行业的信用评级前景调降至负面，理由是借款条件恶化，销售量可能下滑。

The rating agency downgrade came as analysts warned of a potential price war among developers starved of cash by Beijing’s efforts to rein in the residential property sector.

标普调降评级之际，分析师警告称，由于中国政府采取措施抑制住宅行业，资金匮乏的开发商之间可能爆发价格战。

“In the near term, what worries us most is the liquidity position of developers, who are facing very tight lending controls,” said Bei Fu, an analyst at S&P in Hong Kong. “In this situation, developers really need to rely on their own sales but this is a highly uncertain prospect given government attempts to suppress the market and the fact sales volumes have already started to come down.”

“近期来看，我们最为担心的是开发商的流动性状况，它们面临着非常严格的放贷限制，”标准普尔驻香港分析师符蓓表示，“在这种情况下，开发商急切需要依赖自己的销售，但鉴于政府企图遏制市场以及销售量已开始下滑的现实，前景高度不确定。”

Residential property sales in China grew 17.7 per cent last month compared with the previous year, in terms of total area sold, after falling more than 10 per cent in April, according to government figures.

政府数据显示，上个月，中国住宅房地产销售总面积同比增长17.7%，4月则同比下滑逾10%。

But analysts said the apparent rebound in sales in May was mainly due to a very low base in May 2010, the month after Beijing first announced a range of restrictions on housing sales.

然而，分析师表示，5月销售量表面上的反弹，主要是因为去年5月的基数非常低，去年4月中国政府宣布了一系列售楼限制措施。

Most analysts expect volumes to decline further in the coming months, forcing developers to cut prices to maintain sales in the face of cash shortages.

多数分析师预测，未来几个月，销售量将继续下滑，这将迫使资金短缺的开发商采取降价措施，以保持销售量。

“Developers will start cutting prices more aggressively in the second half and we expect this to cause sales volumes to dry up further as people don’t want to catch a falling knife,” said Du Jinsong, a real estate analyst at Credit Suisse. “We believe the worst is yet to come for China’s property sector.”

“今年下半年，开发商将开始采取力度更大的降价措施，我们预计，这将导致销售量进一步下滑，因为人们不希望在房价下跌时购房，”瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)房地产分析师杜劲松表示，“我们认为，中国房地产行业的最糟糕阶段尚未到来。”

Moody’s rating agency cut its outlook for China’s property developers from stable to negative in April.

今年4月，评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)将中国房地产开发商的前景从稳定降至负面。

With oversupply in a cooling market an increasingly likely scenario, some analysts believe cash-strapped developers are poised for a price war that could lead to drops in property prices across the country.

由于这个正在降温的市场越来越有可能出现供应过度，一些分析师认为，资金匮乏的开发商正准备发动一场价格战，这可能造成全国房地产价格下跌。

“We believe the prospect of a price war is currently limited, but the situation could change quickly due to uncertain credit conditions and property sales,” S&P said on Wednesday.

标准普尔周三表示：“我们认为，目前而言，价格战的前景有限，但由于不确定的信贷状况以及房产销售，情况可能会迅速变化。”

An average property price drop of more than 30 per cent could be devastating for the Chinese economy because of the importance of land sales to local government finances and of housing construction to the overall economy.

对于中国经济而言，鉴于土地销售对地方政府财政、以及住宅建设对整个经济的重要性，房价平均跌幅超过30%可能是沉重的打击。