九乡新闻网逃离北上广深:中国食品价格上涨到底怪谁
来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/28 19:09:42
2011年 05月 31日 09:01 中国食品价格上涨到底怪谁
评论(9)
供给面冲击再次被指推高了中国的食品价格，不过真正的罪魁祸首是货币供应的过量，而不是猪养的不够多。
截至周一，中国农业部发布的全国农产品批发价格指数较4月份的水平上升了2.2%，在连续两个月下滑后重拾升势。尤其值得一提的是，猪肉价格在上涨。由于食品在中国消费者价格指数(CPI)中的权重接近三分之一，食品价格的上涨就意味着，6月14日公布5月份CPI数据时，市场应该准备迎接又一轮的通货膨胀。
恶劣天气、疫病的爆发等惯常“嫌疑犯”再次被控造成价格的上涨。这次，长江流域的干旱坐上了“被告席”，猪口蹄疫则被控对价格上涨起到了煽风点火的作用。
把中国不断攀升的食品价格归咎于天气原因很容易。不过，实际情况是，中国自身的货币政策决策人士却是CPI稳步上升背后的推手。
2009年货币供应量的增加（当年底增加了近30%）也许是经济刺激计划的一个必要部分。不过，宽松的货币条件一直延续到2010年，这种做法过头了，如今付出的代价就是通货膨胀。
价格上涨首先表现在食品价格上涨，这是有原因的。农业通常受到供应的制约。如果货币供应量的增加导致服装或电视机需求的上升，中国的制造业有足够的产能来满足需求。但如果食品需求增加，供应却无法做出这样的响应，价格就会随之上涨。
工资的上涨也起到了一定的作用。中国的农业是劳动密集型产业。随着中国人口结构的变化造成劳动力供应减少，工资的上涨将继续推高粮食生产的成本。财富的增加也意味着对更高质量饮食的需求，需要更多的肉食。中国的需求开始造成全球玉米和大豆价格的上涨。
在中国这样幅员辽阔的国家，总可以将价格的上涨归咎于会有某个地方发生的干旱、疫病或水灾。不过，中国通货膨胀的真正罪魁祸首是结构性的，不会随着天气的变化而消除。
Supply shocks are once again charged with pushing up China's food prices, but it is a surplus of money, not a deficit of pigs, that is the real culprit.
As of Monday, the Ministry of Agriculture's index of wholesale food prices was up 2.2% from its April level, a turnaround after two months of falling prices. Pork prices, in particular, are on the rise. With food accounting for almost a third of China's consumer price index, an increase in prices suggests the markets should prepare for another increase in inflation when the data for May are released on June 14.
The usual suspects, bad weather and outbreaks of disease, are once again accused of causing the increase in prices. This time, a drought in the Yangtze River is in the dock, with a disease in the pig population charged with aiding and abetting.
It is easy enough to blame the weather for China's climbing food prices. But the reality is that China's own monetary policy makers are behind the steady rise in the CPI.
An increase in the money supply in 2009, with growth close to 30% at the end of the year, may have been a necessary part of the economic stimulus. But keeping relaxed monetary conditions in place so far into 2010 was overkill, and there is now a price to be paid in inflation.
There is a reason why it is showing up first in food prices. The agricultural sector is supply constrained. If an increase in the money supply results in an increase in demand for clothes or televisions, China's manufacturing sector has the capacity to meet it. If there is more demand for food, supply is less responsive and prices rise.
Higher wages also are playing a part. Agriculture in China is labor intensive. As China's demographic shift reduces the supply of workers, rising wages will continue to add to the cost of food production. Rising wealth also means demand for a higher-quality diet, with more meat. Chinese demand is contributing to higher global prices for corn and soybeans.
In a country as large as China, there is always a drought, disease or flood somewhere that can be blamed for rising prices. But the real villains of China's inflation are structural and won't go away with a change in the weather.
评论(9)
供给面冲击再次被指推高了中国的食品价格，不过真正的罪魁祸首是货币供应的过量，而不是猪养的不够多。
截至周一，中国农业部发布的全国农产品批发价格指数较4月份的水平上升了2.2%，在连续两个月下滑后重拾升势。尤其值得一提的是，猪肉价格在上涨。由于食品在中国消费者价格指数(CPI)中的权重接近三分之一，食品价格的上涨就意味着，6月14日公布5月份CPI数据时，市场应该准备迎接又一轮的通货膨胀。
恶劣天气、疫病的爆发等惯常“嫌疑犯”再次被控造成价格的上涨。这次，长江流域的干旱坐上了“被告席”，猪口蹄疫则被控对价格上涨起到了煽风点火的作用。
把中国不断攀升的食品价格归咎于天气原因很容易。不过，实际情况是，中国自身的货币政策决策人士却是CPI稳步上升背后的推手。
2009年货币供应量的增加（当年底增加了近30%）也许是经济刺激计划的一个必要部分。不过，宽松的货币条件一直延续到2010年，这种做法过头了，如今付出的代价就是通货膨胀。
价格上涨首先表现在食品价格上涨，这是有原因的。农业通常受到供应的制约。如果货币供应量的增加导致服装或电视机需求的上升，中国的制造业有足够的产能来满足需求。但如果食品需求增加，供应却无法做出这样的响应，价格就会随之上涨。
工资的上涨也起到了一定的作用。中国的农业是劳动密集型产业。随着中国人口结构的变化造成劳动力供应减少，工资的上涨将继续推高粮食生产的成本。财富的增加也意味着对更高质量饮食的需求，需要更多的肉食。中国的需求开始造成全球玉米和大豆价格的上涨。
在中国这样幅员辽阔的国家，总可以将价格的上涨归咎于会有某个地方发生的干旱、疫病或水灾。不过，中国通货膨胀的真正罪魁祸首是结构性的，不会随着天气的变化而消除。
Supply shocks are once again charged with pushing up China's food prices, but it is a surplus of money, not a deficit of pigs, that is the real culprit.
As of Monday, the Ministry of Agriculture's index of wholesale food prices was up 2.2% from its April level, a turnaround after two months of falling prices. Pork prices, in particular, are on the rise. With food accounting for almost a third of China's consumer price index, an increase in prices suggests the markets should prepare for another increase in inflation when the data for May are released on June 14.
The usual suspects, bad weather and outbreaks of disease, are once again accused of causing the increase in prices. This time, a drought in the Yangtze River is in the dock, with a disease in the pig population charged with aiding and abetting.
It is easy enough to blame the weather for China's climbing food prices. But the reality is that China's own monetary policy makers are behind the steady rise in the CPI.
An increase in the money supply in 2009, with growth close to 30% at the end of the year, may have been a necessary part of the economic stimulus. But keeping relaxed monetary conditions in place so far into 2010 was overkill, and there is now a price to be paid in inflation.
There is a reason why it is showing up first in food prices. The agricultural sector is supply constrained. If an increase in the money supply results in an increase in demand for clothes or televisions, China's manufacturing sector has the capacity to meet it. If there is more demand for food, supply is less responsive and prices rise.
Higher wages also are playing a part. Agriculture in China is labor intensive. As China's demographic shift reduces the supply of workers, rising wages will continue to add to the cost of food production. Rising wealth also means demand for a higher-quality diet, with more meat. Chinese demand is contributing to higher global prices for corn and soybeans.
In a country as large as China, there is always a drought, disease or flood somewhere that can be blamed for rising prices. But the real villains of China's inflation are structural and won't go away with a change in the weather.