连衣裙英文:Dear Leader -KIm

Dear Leader is hard to track
By Sunny Lee

SEOUL - Even when North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung was alive, he never visited China three times within a period of one year - something his son has achieved with his current trip, making everyone wonder what made Kim Jong-il make such a rare move.

As with previous trips, Chinese state media have kept mum about details of the visit, leaving it to other sources to speculate about a trip that has already lasted a week.

Media in South Korea, the prime outpost to observe North Korea, appear to have a fairly good idea of what it is all about - the economy, with South Korea's TV broadcaster YTN on Thursday, for instance, concluding that North Korea wants to expand

economic cooperation with China.

The two countries are expected to hold a groundbreaking ceremony on Saturday for the development of a river island - Hwanggumpyong Island - located on their border. This will be followed by another groundbreaking ceremony on Monday to build roads connecting the Chinese city of Hunchun with the North Korean port city Rajin.

Analysts view the two projects as central economic cooperation projects that will ramp up the border region's economy. China's northeastern region is landlocked and using the North Korean port will expedite the export of good produced by Sino-North Korean joint projects.

South Korean experts also view economic cooperation as one of the major objects of Kim's visit, especially as the United States and South Korea, the usual two prime economic aid-providers to North Korea, have been withholding largesse in the aftermath of two fatal incidents last year: the sinking of the corvette Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. Seoul demands North Korea's apology as a precondition to resuming economic aid. Washington, Seoul's staunch ally, so far has faithfully backed this insistence.

"Now, who else could North Korea turn to, other than China?" asked Shin Ki-nam, a former head of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee in South Korea.

Hwang Byung-tae, South Korea's former ambassador to China, agreed, characterizing Kim's trip as "North Korea's [food] begging diplomacy." Track records show that whenever Kim visits China, he seeks assistance from the Middle Kingdom, including food, heavy oil and arms.

But Cai Jian, a professor of Korean studies at Shanghai's Fudan University, differs in that he sees the primary aim of Kim's visit as Pyongyang's effort to seek China's diplomatic and political support, while the economic aspect is auxiliary.

"Since last year, North Korea has experienced great diplomatic isolation and pressure," he said. With Seoul and Washington's hardline stance, the situation has not changed. Even North Korea's massive "charm offensive" earlier this year didn't placate Seoul's and Washington's attitude. "Pyongyang is turning to Beijing to help broker its diplomatic isolation," Cai said.

In a meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak this week in Japan, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Lee that China invited North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to the country to "help Pyongyang learn about Chinese economic development".

Wen's revelation is seen as unusual because the Chinese leadership in the past has not acknowledged the North Korean leader's visit until he had returned home.

Another interesting element is that three days after Wen met Lee, Chinese President Hu Jintao met with Kim. China's leaders reaching out to both Koreas, almost at the same time, is seen as China taking a more proactive approach toward the Korean Peninsula, amid the Middle Kingdom's growing confidence of its global status. The move has also stirred a fresh debate on what China wants from North Korea, in addition to what North Korea wants from China.

South Korea's largest-selling and conservative newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, pointed out in an editorial titled "The Ins and Outs of China's Diplomacy in Reaching out to Both Koreas" the "coincidence" that last May, Hu met with Lee in Shanghai and three days later he also met with Kim in Beijing. "We need to read China's intentions correctly ... China exercises absolute influence over North Korea," it said, expressing caution against China's "balancing diplomacy to both Koreas".

South Korea, a former vassal state of the Middle Kingdom, is wary about China's growing overture toward the Korean Peninsula. Even former South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun once painstakingly explained to former US president George W Bush how many times Korea had been invaded by China, in an effort to relieve Washington's concern that Roh was a "pro-China" leader.

Jin Canrong, a security expert at Renmin University in Beijing, believes there is some outside misunderstanding about what China is doing with North Korea, including the "timing" of Kim's visit to China. "The schedule of Kim's trip to China is always set by the North Korean side. When the Dear Leader decides to come to China, China has no other choice. China follows their choice."

Han Suk-hee, a Yonsei University expert on China-North Korea relations in Seoul, sees China as playing a positive role by hosting Kim. "Whenever Kim Jong-il visited China, it was an opportunity for the isolated North Korea to get in touch with the outside world. China also showed off the success of its economic reforms," he said.

One aspect of Kim's trip that made many observers scratch their heads was his visit to the southern city of Yangzhou in Jiangsu province. Skipping his previous normal routine when he stays one night in each city he visits, he traveled 3,000 kilometers for three days and two nights in his special armored train to visit the almost obscure small city, which is not part of China's showcase cities for impressive economic development.

The conspicuous diversion from routine remains the biggest puzzle in Kim's visit and has drawn a lot of speculation. Some see it as a display of Kim's physical prowess - he has survived a stroke - amid outside attention of the power transition to his son, Kim Jong-eun, to make it clear he still calls the shots. Others point out the displeasure in China regarding North Korea's family power transition, which goes against socialist teachings.

"Kim Jong-il went all the way down there, as if he was protesting something," noted Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University in Seoul.

Yangzhou is the hometown of Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao's predecessor. South Korean media suspect Kim met with Jiang, who still remains as a powerful figure and pulls strings behind the scenes.

"Kim Jong-il wants to get wider support from China. He definitely needs support from incumbent leaders. But perhaps he considered that's not enough. He needs to get the former leader's support," said Jin at Renmin University, adding Kim's meeting with Jiang was likely to serve multiple purposes, including in the economic, power-transition and security areas.

Experts point out that these issues are interrelated because a stable economy is needed to pave the way for the power transition to Jong-eun, who is still in his 20s and inexperienced. And Kim's handing over power to his son in an economically doable environment would better guarantee the stability of the Kim family dynasty.