今天美国商业编辑与作者协会（Society of American Business Editors & Writers）在丹佛开年会。我在会上有一个发言，如下。

    这个会很有意思，我还会另写博客，但今天实在太累，这次旅行是近来海外旅行中最累的一次，倒时差完全失败。

    应要求把英文发言放在后面，在分页的第二页。发言稿是我自己写的。我觉得自己目前的英文水平够发言，但不能写文章，因为语法错误很多。中国人发言的时候语法差点没什么关系，只要能达意，听众能原谅。但写文章就不同了，语法错误很触目。我想我这个应该就有不少很触目的错误，看见了请指出，我改。

我在路上一直在想到底讲些什么东西。后来想我们都是新闻工作者，我假设你们想问我哪些问题，然后我准备了一个Q&A，叫作“关于中国经济的四个问题”，是我作为一个新闻工作者对中国经济的观察。如果你们还有不在其中的问题，请呆会儿再问我。

第一个问题：中国经济稳住了吗？

目前多半是。我今年初参加了达沃斯世界经济论坛年会，那个会上人人竞相比较谁更悲观。我一个星期之前参加了博鳌亚洲论坛，一个在中国的最高级的时事论坛。那个会上人人竞相比较谁更乐观。

中国总理温家宝说政府的经济刺激计划已经明显生效。中国国企主管部门负责人李荣融则称中央企业的收入和利润的同比和环比都有增加。人们则在重新开始买房子和股票。大多数经济数据要么显示比前一两个月有所好转，要么显示下滑速度减缓。人们开始谈论中国经济会V字型反转。如果你相信人们在那里所说的每一句话的话，那么中国现在就可以宣布危机结束了。

不，我不相信危机结束了。一个半年内就结束的风波不会叫作危机。我相信雪崩式的危急时刻过去了，但最低谷是否过去了，我并无把握。至少有两个数字支持我这种担忧：第一，中国有3000万农民工失业，而不是此前以为的2000万。这说明失业问题的严重程度比预想的要高出50%。第二，发电量在今年一二月出现增长之后，于3月下旬和4月间再度下降，而且有所加速。

第二个问题：中国政府的4万亿刺激方案是灵丹妙药吗？

中国刺激经济的各种手段能较快地启动，是因为我们有一个强势政府。但它的秘诀不是什么4万亿。如果奥巴马政府宣布一个4万亿方案，那么它会有一个清楚的构成，一万亿在这里，一万亿在那里。中国不是这样的。中国政府从未宣布过4万亿资金从哪里来，用到哪里去。我相信他们也从来没有这样一个细账。

这并不妨碍各个地方政府竞相宣布自己的刺激计划。这是另一场竞争，把他们宣称的数字相加，你会得到一个25万亿的天文数字。

中国政府有这么多钱吗？没有。准确地说，中国政府宣布4万亿计划，并不是主要靠自己出资或是自己发行国债筹资，而是中央政府发出对地方政府上项目的放行信号，同时要求银行提供从结果看是无限量的信贷支持。

过去三个月，支撑中国经济真正的英雄是银行信贷。一季度新增信贷高达4.6万亿元，接近2008年全年的数字。

第三个问题：中国经济能率先增长并带领其他经济走出衰退吗？

我看不出为什么会。这个问题的另外一种问法，就是中国能否与世界经济特别是美国经济脱钩。脱钩论在2007年到2008年中曾经是主流，在2008年秋天以后破产，但现在换了一种形式又回来了。我完全不相信这个论调。

中国政府现在所选择的策略，与1998年亚洲金融危机后采取的策略的惟一重大区别，就是刺激规模要大得多。但这一次危机与上一次危机本身有重大区别，上一次亚洲国家受到重创，但欧美市场也就是中国的最重要出口市场稳健仍然增长。这一次则是所有出口市场均受重创。上一次中国在基础设施上的巨额投资获得了回报。这一次中国在基础设施上的巨额投资数倍于上次，这些投资可以让中国经济在未来12个月内保持体面的增长，但如果12个月后出口市场仍然未能复苏，而内需取代外需不是一朝之功，这些投资本身将成为巨大浪费。另外，中国目前的进口主要服务于出口，要转向由内需引起的进口需求不会在短期内实现，不大可能拉动整个其他经济体从这一轮危机中复苏。

中国政府正在做他们最擅长做的事情，就是政府主导下，银行向大企业放贷，投资于资本密集型的大项目。这种做法对短期的GDP友好但对就业并不友好。这也是为什么中国最大的企业过去一两个月的盈利状态有明显好转，而失业情况特别是农民工失业的情况比想象还要严重的原因。另外一个对就业不利的情况是私营企业特别是私营的中小企业融资困难并未有变化。所以说，中国的经济困难及政府应对这一困难的办法，对就业造成很大压力。

第四个问题：中国需要第二个刺激方案吗？

我认为需要。我认为已经采取的这套方案，以巨额基建投资为代表，在短期内止住了经济滑坡的势头。但它没有解决两个问题：第一，如果外需消失了，中国需要来自内需的增长，而这套方案并不特别有效地增加内需；第二，与此相关，中国需要在高投入、高污染的工业化之外找另外一条增长道路，现在这套方案没有这方面的内容，还是旧模式的一套。

4 Questions about Chinese Economy

The first question: Has Chinese economy stabilized?

The answer is probably yes, for now. Earlier this year I was at Davos, where everyone competed to be the most pessimistic guy under the roof. A week ago I was at Boao Forum, a top forum in China, where everyone competed to be the most optimistic guy.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that the economy is in better shape than expected. Li Rongrong, the SOE Czar, declared that the national champions are getting better each passing month. People start to buy homes and stocks again. New economic data have been better or at least not getting worse. The talk of town is that Chinese economy is going through a V-shape recovery. If you believe every word people said there, China could declare the crisis is over.

But no, I don’t believe the crisis is over. A crisis does not end in 6 months. I do believe that the avalanche moment has passed, but I am not sure the bottom has already come. Two facts trouble me. First, 30 million migrant workers have lost jobs since last winter, not 20 million originally expected, a 50% increase.Second, electricity consumption, a key economic indicator, has been declining since March, and the decline is gaining momentum.

The second question: How important is the 4 trillion Yuan stimulus plan?

Chinese government is strong and can do things to jump start economy in shorter time.But their secret weapon is not that 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan. Suppose President Obama introduces a stimulus plan, he has to list in detail where does each million dollar come from and where does it go. Not in China. The Chinese government never seriously does that.

Local governments play this game to a even larger scale. A competition to ever larger plan leads to a whopping number: 25 trillion yuan, if you combine all local fiscal stimulus plan together.

Of course no one has that money, and the governments do not even pretend they have. The 4 trillion stimulus plan is nothing besides that the central government green lights the local governments to go ahead with all possible huge projects, and then tells the banking system to support it with as much loans as possible. It is not a fiscal stimulus plan per se. It is a stimulus plan using other people’s money.

However, somehow it works. The banks did pump money into the economy, tons of it. In the last quarter, 4.6 trillion loans have been made, almost equaling the number of the entire last year!

Then the third question is, will Chinese economy resume growth momentum and lead other economy out of trouble?

I don’t see how it can happen. If you believe it, then you believe that Chinese economy can decouple itself from the world economy especially the US economy. The decoupling theory was once mainstream from 2007 to 2008, but defunct after last autumn. Now it is gaining a second life which I believe it does not deserve.

The only major difference between the current policy and the policy adopted after 1997Asian Crisis is that this time the government spent more, much more. But these two crises are entirely different. Last time Asia countries were hit hard,while the US and European markets were basically intact. That is why China’s huge investment into infrastructures and capital intensive projects finally paid off then. Investment this time is several times bigger. It may sustain a decent growth for 6 to 12 months by itself. But if the US and European markets did not bounce back in 12 months, all these investments would be wasted and the economy would be in even bigger trouble.

Moreover,China must find another growth engine in domestic demands. But it is easier said than done, and it takes time. It is an unrealistic hope that China will drag other economies out.

Question number 4, does China need another stimulus plan?

Yes, it does. The current one has contained the sharp decline of economy, but it fails to address two challenges. First, domestic demand needs to grow to compensate lost exports, but this plan is not good at producing domestic demands. Second,China needs a greener growth pattern. What the current plan offers is the old way, big investment, high pollution.

In this sense, China does not need another stimulus plan simply to turn 4 trillion into 8 trillion. China needs a new package of economic policy, which is friendly to jobs, consumers, and environment.