九乡新闻网辣文 作者不详:Who will be the next helmsman of IMF? - Focus...
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Who will be the next helmsman of IMF?
As sexual scandal trapped IMF chief Strauss-Kahn faces the absolute crisis to step down, the coming leadership change is at stake for power competiting among countries - EU, US, or the emerging countries?Fight for IMF top job goes global
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A wide range of possible successors could be in the running
Emerging economies are expected to battle hard for the top job at the International Monetary Fund, following the arrest of current head Dominique Strauss-Kahn, analysts say.
That could pit the fast-growing markets of Asia and Latin America against Europe.
Developing countries are seeking more influence on the world stage as their economic clout increases.
The current structure for leadership at the IMF and the World Bank is one where the former is headed by a European and the latter by an American.
The ugly sister World Bank + US trap?
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Many moons ago, I wrote an article tongue in cheek "A good use for the IMF - bail out America" (Asia Times Online, March 17, 2007), whose proposal has since actually become official policy at least for IMF actions in regards to Europe, supposedly the superior economy to America at the time I wrote the article.
From their inception in the post-World War II period, the IMF and the World Bank were designed as tools of Western intervention in emerging markets that could be padded as neutral, multilateral efforts rather than overtly of the capitalist powers in the charged environment of the Cold War.
Part of that arrangement was to ensure that the heads of the World Bank would always be from the United States while the IMF would be led by the Europeans, so that pesky questions about policy could always be avoided: hence their moniker in the minds of independent economists, as the "ugly sisters".
For those reasons alone, the IMF and World Bank indulged in orthodox lending practices that could keep economies in straitjackets while the interests of creditors (denominated in US dollars) were paramount. They were talking shops that encouraged the saving nations across Asia and the Middle East to invest their hard-earned revenues in "hard" currencies while diminishing the role and importance of the Asian and Middle East local bond markets and currencies.
Within the organizations, the ugly sisters operate as any organization with exclusive powers but no real accountability would be expected to - in other words, with utter irresponsibility.
It is not a coincidence in my mind that people heading these organizations appear to come out of them with what looks like psychological trauma. We have already seen in 2007 a scandal involving then World Bank president Paul Wolfowitz and a companion who worked at the bank.
The DSK case appears to show a similar lack of judgement, preceded as it was by a very similar case involving an affair with a married woman inside the IMF. Interestingly, the ugly sisters appear to be equal opportunity offenders - in the sense that Wolfowitz was widely recognized as a neo-conservative, while DSK was the archetypal French socialist.
My pet theory is that the people working in these places have an "achievement deficit" - in the sense that any work they do cannot be visibly attributed to anything useful in the outside world. For a range of successful men (sexual offenders at these agencies seem to be all men) perhaps there just wasn't the required gravitas that comes with a job well done. Hence the minds wander to more base pursuits. A theory for sure, but also a plausible one.
Any number of economists trained by the ugly sisters went on to important roles across emerging nations - Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Go ahead and read the bio section of any number of central bankers and finance ministry professionals around the world and the magic words "xyz previously worked as a policy director/economist/credit officer/research assistant (pick your spot) at the IMF/WB (pick one or both)". This is exactly the kind of mind-control that led Asian central bankers down the path of what I called "The New Imperialism", ie to over-invest their reserves in the debt issued by governments across the US and Europe as a measure of safety.
The other over-arching aspect of the IMF is to be seen as a credible partner to governments across the world. From that need arises the seeming contradiction in its reports - as recently highlighted in my article "With friends like these..." (Asia Times Online, April 22, 2011). where the bullish tone in its executive summary stands in stark contrast to the more guarded tone of the actual report.
Declining Europe?
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When he was detained by police, DSK was apparently aboard a plane destined for Europe, specifically to secure an agreement with key European leaders like Merkel ahead of a planned announcement of new deal with Greece over the extension and fresh facilities for the country's debt, even as it failed to meet the admittedly loose targets on fiscal consolidation set by the IMF.
Double-speak isn't anything new at the IMF, so that bit of accounting skullduggery on Greece wasn't newsworthy by itself. What was newsworthy was the likely extension of the Greek aid program ad infinitum (in other words a second bailout), as long as allegations of an outright default could be avoided, as that would be inconvenient for the IMF and the European Union to explain properly after throwing a number of billions of euros at the problem.
Then there was the question of the 78 billion euros (US$110 billion) or so that had to be agreed for Portugal as a bailout. Also on the agenda of Strauss-Kahn was an agreement on the appropriate statements that politicians would make on with (or more pertinently, against) the increasingly shrill statements coming out of the European Central Bank that appeared to espouse a course of action that hadn't been quite antagonistic to the debtor-friendly policies that politicians appeared to endorse.
Reluctant participants included Finland (which recently voted against any new bailouts) and the United Kingdom (which has its own debt problems and has recently decided against helping any European country that requests a second bailout).
Historians have debated long and hard about the actual event that caused or at the very least showcased the decline of the Roman civilization; indeed more recently much confusion and arguments persist on the events that actually caused World War I.
In my view though, the casus belli for the present day decline of Europe would be the mere fact that a decrepit borrower (Greece) threatened to leave the common currency and was hastily stopped by its lenders across the continent. If that doesn't show the rot at the heart of Europe, what else does?
In that wider context, the detention of the IMF chief at the weekend is almost a postscript for everyone except the New York hotel chamber maid who has leveled accusations against him.
With Europe in Crisis, Fragile Time for I.M.F.
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It’s hard to imagine a worse time for the International Monetary Fund to be without a forceful European leader.
Indeed, the most bitter twist for Dominique Strauss-Kahn is that his personal crisis comes at a time that the I.M.F.’s influence globally is at a many-decades peak, especially within Europe, his own stomping ground.
During his tenure as managing director of the fund, Mr. Strauss-Kahn is widely credited with expanding the fund’s resources after the financial crisis, improving its governance and essentially restoring its relevance by replacing orthodoxy with pragmatism.
Mr Strauss-Kahn, a former French finance minister with excellent political connections, was once described by Mr Johnson as “Metternich with a BlackBerry” after the great 19th-century European diplomat. Mr Strauss-Kahn revived the IMF’s relevance during the global financial crisis, massively increasing its resources.
Though the outcome is uncertain, the likelihood of the IMF being headed by a candidate from a developing country is now higher than at any point in its history. Mr Johnson said: “The emerging markets have been waiting a long time and may now feel this is their chance.”
Emerging countries: Eligible candidate to compete?
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The arrest of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn may bolster a drive by Brazil and other emerging markets for a greater voice in the selection of the IMF and World Bank chiefs.
Does IMF crisis open the door to emerging nations?
The arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn has plunged the International Monetary Fund into a leadership dilemma just as it’s playing a key role in addressing Europe’s debt crisis and other global challenges.
It also hastens a likely confrontation between Europe and increasingly rich developing countries that have been angling for the top spot at either the IMF or its sister organization, the World Bank. Since their inception just after World War II, the IMF has been led by a European, the World Bank by an American.
Eswar Prasad, an expert in international economics at Cornell University, said the top jobs could become embroiled in horse-trading, with the major countries trying to win positions for their top candidates.
“It will be a knock-down, dragged-out fight because there is a lot at stake,” Prasad said.
Prasad said the United States would like to see a developing country official head the IMF. But Prasad noted that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already said she wants to see the IMF post remain in European hands. Many analysts expect developing nations to push for their own candidates.
Caroline Atkinson, a spokeswoman for the IMF, said it remains “fully operational.” The IMF’s board met Monday and received a briefing from Acting Managing Director John Lipsky and the fund’s lawyer, Sean Hagan. Atkinson announced no further steps.
Analysts note that Europe, whose debt crisis has consumed the IMF for more than a year, has a large bloc of voting shares in the IMF and won’t be willing to yield the top job without a fight. Some suggested that French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde is most likely Europe’s leading candidate.
Strauss-Kahn is regarded as one of the savviest leaders in the IMF’s 64-year history, with deep ties to European policymakers. He played a vital role in negotiating last year’s joint European Union-IMF bailout package for Greece and other struggling European countries.
Strauss-Kahn hasn’t yet officially stepped down. But few analysts expect him to remain.
Morris Goldstein, a top economist at the IMF for 25 years and now at the Peterson Institute, said the French will likely argue that Lagarde would be a wise choice because the IMF will need someone closely involved in negotiations over aid packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. If chosen, Lagarde would be the first woman to lead the IMF.
“They could argue that at this delicate state of negotiations on the European debt programs, the IMF needs somebody who is familiar with the issues,” Goldstein said.
He said that if the Europeans lose the IMF post, they might insist that the United States also give up its long-standing hold on the World Bank job when Robert Zoellick’s term as World Bank president ends June 30, 2012.
Non-Europeans will likely argue that it’s time to open up the leadership to major developing countries whose economies are expanding far faster than the developed world. Some, like China, have boosted their contributions to the IMF in recent years.
“There is growing disquiet, particularly among emerging nations,” said Jan Randolph, an analyst at IHS Global Insight. “China could use its influence to support an emerging-market candidate for the top IMF job.”The United States, the largest donor to the IMF, is certain to weigh in.
“This will be a rather complicated game of musical chairs,” said Uri Dadush, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former head of economic policy at the World Bank.
Philippe Aghion, a professor of economics at Harvard University, said he expects emerging nations to exert strong pressure to land the top job. "And there is no shortage of competent candidates in their ranks," he said.
He cited in particular Trevor Manuel, head of South Africa's planning commission and formerly one of that country's longest-serving finance ministers, as well as Turkey's Kemal Dervis. Another potential contender is India's Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the first director of the IMF's independent evaluation office, where he worked until 2004.
Other potential contenders include former Brazilian central bank President Arminio Fraga; Mohamed El-Erian, head of investment-management company Pimco; and former South Korean Finance Minister Il SaKong, who was involved in the his country's chairmanship of the Group of 20 nations last year. Also on many short lists are a former Singapore finance minister, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who recently took over the chairmanship of the IMF's policy committee, and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo.
"For Europeans there's going to be a key question. Can they leave the keys of the house to an emerging country at this crucial juncture?" asked one European official.
China's sutble role?
"China could use its influence to support an emerging market candidate for the top IMF job.
"China is the biggest new IMF bondholder. Its huge financial contribution in 2008 effectively tripled the size of the IMF's lending power during the financial crisis."
That financial might is coming into focus as developing countries start taking a larger share of the global economy.(BBC/Asia Times/AFP/Financial Times/ New York Times)
But which power do you think will be the next helmsman of IMF?
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