九乡新闻网贵金属现货投资公司:RADIOACTIVE RATTLE THROWN OUT OF PRAM
来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/27 15:06:02
Whatever else you may say about Kim Jong-il, his sense of timing is exquisite.
The first time his regime tested a nuclear device, in October 2006, the underground blast coincided almost exactly with the touchdown on (South) Korean soil of Shinzo Abe, a hardline critic of Pyongyang and then Japan's prime minister. Mr Abe duly pushed for tougher United Nations sanctions against the North. But within weeks, plans were set in motion to bring Pyongyang back to a negotiating table where it was offered further goodies to reverse its nuclear ambitions.
This time, reports that North Korea has tested a second bomb come as South Korea is reeling from a homegrown crisis, the suicide of Roh Moo-hyun, president until last year. Roh, who jumped off a cliff on Saturday, was an advocate of the so-called sunshine policy of engagement with the North, a strategy that was torn to shreds by Pyongyang's 2006 nuclear blast. Roh's successor, Lee Myung-bak, has pursued a much tougher line against the North, refusing even to send food aid unless Pyongyang specifically requests it. Arguments over which strategy is right still rage in South Korea: the suicide of Roh, who was being investigated over bribery allegations, will only add fuel to the fire.
What South Korea does may not matter. Whether in sunshine or in rain, North Korea seems determined to press on with its nuclear programme regardless. Yesterday's test may have been designed to prove – to itself and to the world – that Pyongyang has improved its capabilities since the 2006 blast, which some military experts suggested might have been something of a damp squib. North Korea's official announcement of the test, which was accompanied for good measure by the firing of short-range missiles, made a point of saying that North Korea had ironed out technical problems. It is too early to know whether this is true.
The likelihood is that North Korea is throwing its radioactive rattle from its pram in an effort to grab the attention of Barack Obama. The new US president has put Pyongyang fairly low on a list of priorities dominated by efforts to get the domestic economy going and to tackle terrorist threats brewing in Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of the Middle East. His administration has taken the view that it will talk to Pyongyang when the time comes, with no rush.
There is, of course, only one thing worse than being talked about. And that is not being talked about. Mr Kim is suitably piqued. Since April, his regime has fired a long-range missile that is technically capable of hitting Alaska, and restarted a plutonium programme. Now it has tested a bomb. Mr Obama noticed this one. He duly sent out a statement in the small hours condemning North Korea for “recklessly challenging the international community”.
The US president's rebuke went on to say that North Korea would not achieve “international acceptance” unless it abandoned its nuclear weapons programme. But the worrying possibility is that Pyongyang may not care.
The growing feeling in Seoul is that North Korea may be trying to dash across the nuclear finishing line. Until recent months, the widespread assumption has been that Mr Kim's regime has used the nuclear threat as a bargaining chip to press for various concessions: food, oil, cash and direct contact, preferably bilateral talks with Washington. Now some senior officials speculate that North Korea may have come to the conclusion that the best bargaining chip of all is a certified nuclear bomb capable of being mounted on a warhead. That would certainly grab Mr Obama's full attention.
金正日的核玩具
无论你怎样评价金正日，都不得不承认他对时机的把握非常敏锐。
他领导下的朝鲜政权于2006年10月进行了首次核试验，那次地下核爆炸几乎就发生在安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)踏上韩国土地之时。安倍晋三时任日本首相，对朝鲜持强硬的批评态度。他立即要求联合国对朝鲜实施更严厉的制裁。但短短数周内，将朝鲜拉回谈判桌的计划就出台了。在谈判桌前，朝鲜获得了更多馈赠，以扭转其核野心。
这一次，朝鲜试爆第二颗核弹的报道发布之际，本土发生的危机事件正让韩国上下一片震惊——去年卸任的前总统卢武铉(Roh Moo-hyun)上周六跳崖自杀。卢武铉提倡对朝鲜实行所谓的“阳光政策”——这一战略因朝鲜2006年的核爆炸而分崩离析。卢武铉的继任者李明博(Lee Myung Bak)对朝鲜的立场要强硬得多，如果朝鲜不提出明确要求，他甚至拒绝提供食品援助。韩国对于两种战略孰优孰劣的争论仍很激烈：因涉嫌受贿正接受调查的卢武铉自杀只会火上浇油。
韩国怎么做或许无关紧要。无论是在阳光下还是在雨水中，朝鲜似乎都已决心不计后果地推进核计划。周一的核试验可能旨在向本国和全世界证明，自上次试验以来，朝鲜已提高了核能力——一些军事专家认为，2006年的核爆炸可能并未成功。在进行本次核试验的同时，朝鲜还发射了数枚短程导弹。朝鲜有关核试验的官方公告特意宣布，朝鲜解决了一些技术问题。要确认这种说法是否属实，还为时尚早。
事实很可能是，朝鲜把放射性玩具从婴儿车里扔出来，是为了引起巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的注意。这位美国新总统的要务清单上，主要是如何保持国内经济继续运转，解决阿富汗、巴基斯坦和中东局部地区酝酿的恐怖主义威胁，朝鲜则排得相当靠后。奥巴马政府采取的观点是，它会适时与朝鲜展开对话，不必匆忙。
当然，只有一件事比受到议论更糟糕。那就是不被议论。金正日的自尊心受到了伤害。今年4月以来，朝鲜发射了一枚从技术上讲能打到阿拉斯加的远程导弹，并重启了钚提取计划。如今，它又进行了试爆了一枚核弹。奥巴马这一次注意到了，周二凌晨就及时发表声明，谴责朝鲜“不计后果地挑战国际社会”。
奥巴马继续谴责称，如果朝鲜不放弃核武器计划，就不会获得“国际认同”。但令人担忧的是，平壤对此可能并不在意。
韩国有一种越来越强烈的感觉，即朝鲜可能正在努力冲过核终点。直到几个月前，人们还普遍以为，金正日政权是在以核威胁为筹码，要求获得各种让步：食品、石油、现金和直接接触，最好是与华盛顿进行双边对话。如今，一些高级官员猜测，朝鲜可能已得出结论：最好的筹码就是一颗得到认定、能够安装在导弹弹头上的核弹。这肯定会抓住奥巴马全部的注意力。
译者/陈云飞