西必泰浓度:Libya: Tribes, Oil and Gaddafi determine the ...

来源：百度文库编辑：九乡新闻网时间：2024/04/26 08:08:28

Libya: Tribes, Oil and Gaddafi determine the political skyline

Libya could otherwise be obscure if there were no air strikes upon it days on end and no the three globally-noted elements: multitudinous tribes, abundant oil and eccentric Muammar Gaddafi.

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Libya tribes: Who's who?

With more than 140 tribes and clans, Libya is considered one of the most tribal nations in the Arab world, a crucial factor in determining Muammar Qaddafi's political future.

As Libya is now dangling on the edge of collapse, with antigovernment protesters and defected soldiers now controlling the oil-rich east, eyes are turning to the North African nation's more than 140 tribes and clans that is considered determine the political future of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, if there were no military intervention from the West coalition forces which are engaged in shelling the already embattled oil-rich country.

Gaddafi has "used the country's vast oil and gas wealth to co-opt tribes," reports The Associated Press. "He gave them cash, perks and jobs, and fostered blood ties with intertribal marriages." There about 140 tribes and influential large families in Libya, regional expert Hanspeter Mattes told German magazine Der Spiegel, though only 30 have political influence.

Here is a breakdown of some tribal alliances that influence Libya in the bygone days and perhaps, the coming days .

From the east----

Abu Llail (anti-Qaddafi): Many of the antigovernment movement's activists are members of the Abu Llail tribes, according to Mr. Mattes in the Der Spiegel article.

Al-Awaqir (pro-Qaddafi): According to Arabic daily Asharq Alawsat: "The al-Awaqir tribe has also historically played a prominent role in Libyan politics, including during the previous era of the Libyan monarchy as well as during Gaddafi's reign. Al-Awaqir tribal members have held senior positions within Gaddafi's regime, including ministerial positions."

From the west----

Qadhafah (pro-Qaddafi): A relatively small tribe from which Qaddafi hails has staffed his elite military units. Reported to control the Air Force. It "had historically not been an important tribe in Libya prior to Colonel Gaddafi's ascent to power," reported Asharq Alawsat.

Magariha (alliance unclear): Libya's second-largest tribe, the Magariha are led by Abdel Sallam Jalloud, who was second-in-command in the country for decades until he fell out of favor with Qaddafi. A member of the tribe, Abdel Baset Al Megrahi, was convicted for the 1988 Lockerbie bombing. Brigadier General Abu Bark Younis Jaber, Libyan head of the army, is another prominent member. Indeed, the Magariha may be "best positioned to carry out a coup against Colonel Qaddafi because many of its members are in senior government and security services positions," reports The National.

Zuwaya, or Zawiya (alliance unclear): Hailing from the central coast, the tribe is active in government, with member Abdulqasim Zwai serving as justice minister. But on Feb. 20, tribal leader Sheikh Faraj al-Zwai threatened to interrupt oil exports if the use of violence didn't stop, according to Der Spiegel.

Warfalla (anti-Qaddafi): With more than 1 million members, the Warfalla is Libya's largest tribe and accounts for one-sixth of the nation's total population. It has traditionally made up Qadaffi's security apparatus and aligned with the pro-Qaddafi Qadhafah tribe. But in a stinging rebuke to the regime, the Warfalla was the first tribe to join the antigovernment movement. "It’s a very bad sign for Gaddafi’s regime," said the analyst Mr. Abidi. "And the regime knows that."

In 1993, Warfalla officers from southeast of Tripoli launched a failed coup attempt with alleged backing from the Magariha tribe. The reason, according to a 2002 report from Input Solutions, "was this tribe was poorly represented in the regime and only occupied second-echelon posts in the officers' corps."

According to the report: "If Jalloud's Magariha, the Warfalla, and Islamic militant groups unite against Qadhafi in an all-out confrontation involving the military, they could take over power. But that would soon be followed by challenges from other tribes. Ultimately, if Qadhafi is overthrown, these tribes could fight each other and Libya could be split into several regions."

Also to watch...

LIFG jihadists (alliance unclear): Formed in 1995, the Al Qaeda-aligned Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) has in the past launched assassination attempts against Qaddafi. Global intelligence unit Stratfor, in a report this week, says LIFG has been "for the most part demobilized and rehabilitated." But it warns that LIFG may yet attempt to seize control in the security vacuum.

"If the regime does not fall and there is civil war between the eastern and western parts of the country, they could likewise find a great deal of operational space amid the chaos.... Given this window of opportunity, the LIFG could decide to become operational again, especially if the regime they have made their deal with unexpectedly disappears. However, even should the LIFG decide to remain out of the jihad business as an organization, there is a distinct possibility that it could splinter and that the more radical individuals could cluster together to create a new group or groups that would seek to take advantage of this suddenly more permissive operational environment."

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Oil and gas, Libya’s treasure base

Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), holds the largest proven oil reserves in Africa. According to the 2008 BP Statistical Energy Survey, Libya had proved oil reserves of 41.464 billion barrels at the end of 2007 or 3.34 % of the world's reserves.

Oil exploration in Libya began in 1955, with the key national Petroleum Law No. 25 enacted in April of that year (a new petroleum law is currently under development). Libya's first oil fields were discovered in 1959 (at Amal and Zelten -- now known as Nasser), and oil exports began in 1961.

Libya is Africa’s major oil producer and one of Europe’s biggest North African oil suppliers. Supplies from North Africa to Europe destinations have the advantage of being both timely and cost effective. According to the 2008 BP Statistical Energy Survey, Libya produced an average of 1847.7 thousand barrels of crude oil per day in 2007, 2.2% of the world total and a change of 0.5 % compared to 2006. Libya’s economy is based on oil and exports contribute between 75% and 90% of State revenues.

Foreign involvement in Libya was severely reduced as a result of the sanctions and embargoes emplaced upon it, especially between the years of 1992 and 1999. Access to oil industry equipment and technology was restricted and Libya is reliant on foreign investment to keep the industry active.

Libya has very low production costs and the oilfields are close to the refineries and markets of Europe. In addition, despite almost half a century of exploration, Libya remains largely unexplored with vast oil and gas potential. The under-exploration of Libya reflects the impact of sanctions formerly imposed on the country.

According to the 2008 BP Statistical Energy Survey, Libya had 2007 proved natural gas reserves of 1.49 trillion cubic metres, 0.84% of the world total, while producing 15.2 billion cubic metres, 0.51% of the world total, in the same period.

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Eccentric Colonel Gaddafi

Muammar Muhammad al-Gaddafi, (born 7 June 1942), commonly referred to as Colonel Gaddafi, has been the leader of Libya since a military coup on 1 September 1969 where he overthrew King Idris of Libya and established the Libyan Arab Republic. His 42 years in power made him one of the longest-serving rulers in history.

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, Gaddafi's government was considered a pariah state by the West, denounced for oppressing internal dissidence, acts of state-sponsored terrorism, assassinations of expatriate opposition leaders, and crass nepotism which amassed a multi-billion dollar fortune for himself and his family. Gaddafi renamed the Libyan Arab Republic to Jamahiriya in 1977, based on his socialist and nationalist political philosophy published in Green Book. In 1979, he relinquished the title of prime minister, and was thereafter called "The Brother Leader" or "The Guide" in Libya's Socialist Revolution.

Gaddafi was a firm supporter of OAPEC and led a Pan-African campaign for a United States of Africa. After the 1986 Bombing of Libya and the 1993 imposition of United Nations sanctions, Gaddafi established closer economic and security relations with the west, cooperated with investigations into previous Libyan acts of state-sponsored terrorism and paid compensation, and ended his nuclear weapons program, resulting in the lifting of UN sanctions in 2003.

In early February 2011, major political protests, inspired by recent pro-democracy events in Tunisia, Egypt and other parts of the Arab world, broke out in Libya against Gaddafi's government and quickly turned into a general uprising. Gaddafi vowed to "die a martyr" if necessary in his fight against the rebels and external forces. Now he is almost cornered by the incessant shelling from coalition forces as well as by the West-backed rebels at home.

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