虹桥坊有什么好吃的:地震对日本经济及全球经济的影响

Costs of the quake are initially estimated at $1-$2 billion, according to JPMorgan. That is a fraction of the $102.5-billion worth of damage caused by the Kobe earthquake of 1995, which was a 6.8.

摩根大通初步估计，地震所造成的损失在10-20亿美元。这对1995年阪神地震所造成的损失1025亿美元来说，只是个零头，当时的震级只有6.8级。

A number of oil refineries caught fire along the northeast coast and at least 11 nuclear reactors have been closed. Insurance stocks took a hit and stocks are extending to fresh lows.

东北海岸的炼油厂和至少11家核电厂都已经关闭。除保险股票以外，全部股票走低。

The Bank of Japan issued a statement promising to provide ample liquidity. The central bank’s meeting will be held, as scheduled, on Monday, but will be cut to one day.

日本银行承诺会提供大量现金流。日本中央银行将周一例会提前一天召开。

Analysts think more stimulus may be announced, depending on how events play out over the weekend. But rebuilding efforts are likely going to be painful given the government’s already-high debt load.

分析家认为地震对经济的刺激是显而易见的，但还要取决之后几个星期还会发生什么。但重建所需资金会给已经债台高筑的日本政府蒙上一层阴影。

Here is what analysts are saying about the fallout:

分析家将对地震对经济带来的影响做出预测。

Takuji Okubo, chief economist, Societe General in Tokyo

法国兴业银行在东京的首席经济学家Takuji Okubo

“I think we will see industrial production suffer one day’s loss of output in March at most and with the south mostly intact I think the impact, even for manufacturers, will be limited, as they may be able to shift production to southern regions. I don’t think annual economic growth will be affected at all. In 1995, after Kobe quake quarter-on-quarter growth stood at 0.8 percent, so annualized 3.6 percent which is actually pretty strong. I think we’re likely talking here about fatalities reaching hundreds, rather than thousands, like in 1995.”

我想大家都知道了，军工出口的工业供应商在东北海岸在这一天遭受了巨大的损失。但南部的工业几乎毫发未伤，他们只需将产品线调整至南方，所以地震对工业的伤害还是有限的。

我不认为这会对经济增长有什么样的影响。1995年坂神大地震，季度增长率为0.8%，年增长率为3.6%，这是很强劲的。我认为更应该关注的是，现在死亡人数只有数百人，远远不到阪神地震时的数千人。

Adrian Foster, head of financial markets research, Rabobank International in Hong Kong

荷兰国际合作银行在香港的金融市场研究主任Adrian Foster

“If you think about the weather damage that we have seen around in Australia and (the quake in) New Zealand of course recently, I think New Zealand was the only central bank to cut rates in reaction, so that was some bit of an unusual move and I don’t think that monetary policy reaction is a conventional reaction anyway, so this is clearly a massive fiscal challenge.”

提到自然灾害，澳大利亚和最近的新西兰地震。我想新西兰银行是唯一将降息作为财政手段的，这是很少见的。我不认为资金政策是一个常规型的手段，所以这是一个很大的财政挑战。

“The pictures of the tsunami — seems like it’s extremely devastating. I am still looking at the event which is unfolding and I don’t know what their policy reaction will be. But clearly Japan is experienced with earthquakes, so I am sure they have the reactionary capabilities. What the government sits down and comes up with is anybody’s guess. Seeing the way the situation is still, there is no other conclusion that one can come up with for now”

海啸看起来是毁灭性的。我对接下来发生的持观望态度，不知道他们的政策对此如何反馈。日本政府对地震极有经验，我相信他们有应对的能力。政府对此会有何调整，只是大家的猜测。如果灾害情况持续，没有人知道他们会想出什么点子。

Vincent Tsui, economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong

渣打银行在香港的经济学家 Vincent Tsui

“It is still too early to assess the damages as we are still seeing aftershocks.

We see a sharp correction in the yen and the BOJ might maintain its dovish policy stance at a meeting next week. At a time when the global oil price surge has hit the global economic recovery outlook on which Japan is heavily dependent on, this development will influence them to maintain a dovish stance on policy.”

我们看到日元的大幅回调，中央银行下周应该会采取一个温和的政策。全球油价会因为日本是石油最大的消费国之一，而产生巨大的波动，这将影响全球经济。这也会令他们采取较为温和的政策立场。

Brad Bechtel, managing director, Faros Trading

外汇交易公司Faros Trading的执行董事Brad Bechtel

“Important things to note in the context of what has happened in Japan. History on the USD/JPY reaction to emergencies, especially huge earthquakes, is actually very JPY positive. Initially the knee jerk is to sell JPY, but the reality is that JPY strengthens dramatically.

在日本发生的这一切非常值得记一笔。过去每一次发生重大紧急情况，比如地震，美元对日元的汇率，都是日本走强。最初大家的反应都是卖掉日元，但事实上，日元会非常戏剧化的走强。

“What we saw with the Kobe earthquake in 1995 the drop in USD/JPY was 20% over 3 months. The reason for this is the huge repatriation flows that occur on the back of these sorts of disasters.  So Japanese locals bring assets back into JPY.”

我们曾看到坂神大地震后三个月，美元对日元跌幅达20%。原因在于灾害发生后，会又巨大的日本资金回流。所以日本本地资产将日元拉高。

“Insurers that now have to make JPY payments to Japanese have to buy JPY and any international aid flows that get sent to Japan are also going to be in JPY. This creates a very positive bias in the JPY in the immediate short term. Looking at other international disasters we saw the same impact to the local currencies in places like Thailand and Australia.”

保险公司现在需要对日本理赔，他们需要兑进日元。许多国际救助组织进入日本时需要兑进日元。短期之内，这将对日本有积极的倾斜态度。在过去的灾害中，如澳大利亚和泰国，我们都能发现相似的情况。

Tim Condon, chief economist for Asia at ING in Singapore

荷兰国际集团驻新加坡首席经济学家 Tim Condon

“The wisdom of the crowds show that the markets are taking it very badly but I would wait for a clearer picture to assess how bad it is. Some are drawing a parallel with the RBNZ here and are expecting the BOJ to act but I think the BOJ is fairly stingy in this matter as evident from the Kobe earthquake. It is still too early to tell whether there will be continued selling in the stock markets. The construction sector might get a big boost out of this.”

交易场内的人们对此反应并不好，我会等到损失评估出来的时候，看看到底有多坏。与同期的新西兰相比，日本的中央银行在阪神地震时就非常吝啬，不会采取特别的资金政策。现在还不能确定是否会股票市场继续出售日元。建筑方面大概会在此大赚一笔了。

Tsutomu Yamada, market analyst, Kabu.com Securities

网上证券公司Kabu.com 的市场分析师 Tsutomu Yamada

“The extent of the damage is hard to tell but it seems devastating for the northern Japan economy. The government must act quickly to announce support packages and the central bank should pump more money into the economy. Some manufacturers have factories in the quake-hit area and they will face challenges in rebuilding these facilities. But what’s more important is that this quake could hamper Japan’s overall economy which just started showing some positive signs.”

这次灾害的范围如此之大，对北部日本经济似乎有着毁灭性的打击。政府必须迅速反应支援，中央银行也应放出更多的现金流。许多制造商在地震集中的北部都有厂房，他们将面对设备的重建。但更重要的是，地震会对日本刚刚抬头的经济造成不良的影响。

Mitsushige Akino, fund manager, Ichiyoshi Invesment Management in Tokyo

一吉投资管理公司东京基金经济 Mitsushige Akino

“We still don’t know what’s the damage like, but stocks will probably fall on Monday, especially shares in those companies that have factories in the affected areas, but on the whole the sell-off will likely be short-lived. Just like during the Kobe quake in 1995, the stock market reaction will be momentary, also because the epicentre was far from Tokyo, and it isn’t likely to affect Japanese economy as a whole.”

我们现在还不清楚，灾害到底造成多多大的损失，但是星期一股票可能会跌，尤其是工厂设在那些被地震影响的地区。但是整仓卖出可能是短期现象。就像1995年的阪神大地震，股票市场的是瞬间反应的，因为震中远离东京，并且这不太可能影响整体的日本经济。

IHS Global Insight analysts Lilit Gevorgyan, Neil Ashdown and Sarah McDowall

环球透视IHS（一家国际经济顾问公司）分析师  Lilit Gevorgyan, Neil Ashdown and Sarah McDowall

“Although the main concentration of industrial Japan appears unaffected, the extent of the infrastructural damage will be severe. The natural disaster could also upset the country’s nascent economic recovery while exacerbating the country’s ballooning public debt issues, as spending by the Tokyo government will surge to meet emergency response costs.”

虽然地震并未波及日本经济的重心，但对广大地区的基础设施的影响确是严重的。地震将会重新使刚刚复苏的日本经济重新蒙上一层阴影，加重公共贷款压力，并且日本政府将会立即面对紧急资金的问题。

“Here it is worth noting that Miyagi prefecture accounts for 1.7% of Japan’s GDP. The economy is heavily dependent on growing rice and there will be repercussions for industries operating close to the coast, particularly the fishing and shrimp industry.”

宫城县只占日本GDP的1.7%，并不会造成太大的影响。经济影响严重依赖于米价的上升，东北海岸的工业关闭，尤其是对造船业和渔业的冲击。

“Meanwhile, the impact of the natural disaster is already being felt across Asia’s financial markets, intensifying the uncertainty amid political turmoil in the Middle East and concerns over European debt. Owing to the extensive damage caused to infrastructural networks in Japan, particularly in the north-west, IHS Global Insight has downgraded the operational risk rating by 0.5, from 1.75 to 2.25.”

“同时，地震的影响已经波及亚洲金融市场。不确定的中东政治因素，和来自欧洲的资贷方的担忧。由于日本大范围基础设施受损，尤其是在东北海岸，IHS Global Insight的有0.5降级操作风险评级，从1.75至2.25。”

Tsuyoshi Segawa, equity strategist, Mizuho Securities

瑞穗证券股票策略师Tsuyoshi Segawa

“As far as I can see on TV, Tokyo and northern Japan have been significantly damaged and that might trigger panic-selling after the weekend. There is a possibility that some construction-related companies’ shares rise just like back in 1995 when we had the Kobe earthquake. But we are still unsure about macroeconomic effects at this moment so investors should not be making guesses and carefully assess the situation.”

“就我看到的电视新闻报道，东京以及日本北部受到了比较严重的损失，下周可能会因起股票市场的恐慌抛售。也有可能像1995年坂神大地震一样，建筑公司的股票会大涨。但是我们仍不清楚宏观经济对此的反应，投资者不要妄自揣测，应持仓观望。”

Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist, Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo

瑞穗研究所在东京的高级经济学家Yasuo Yamamoto

“We still don’t know the full scale of the damage, but considering what happened after the earthquake in Kobe, this will certainly lead the government to compile an emergency budget. The government would have to sell more bonds, but this is an emergency, so this can’t be avoided.”

“现在还不清楚损失的范围，但是参照坂神大地震的情况，这肯定会令政府面对紧急预算的状况。如果日本政府卖掉很多债券，这将是一个紧急的信号，但这不能完全避免。”

“Given where the Bank of Japan’s benchmark interest rate is now, they can’t really lower rates. The BOJ will focus on providing liquidity, possibly by expanding market operations.”

“There are car and semiconductor factories in northern Japan, so there will be some economic impact due to damage to factories. We can expect consumption to fall. This could temporarily pull down gross domestic product.”

“汽车工业和半导体工业都位于日本北部，所以这会带来重大的经济影响。能预见的是消费将会减少，短期内会拉低GDP。”

Derek Holt, vice-president, Scotia Economics

丰业资本 副总裁 Derek Holt

“The risk trade had looked to be temporarily on the mend before news of a massive 8.9 earthquake off the northern coast of Japan hit, alongside tsunami warnings that spread across the Asia-Pacific region… A wave of shut downs – many driven by automatic emergency pre-paredness plans – swept through power plants and factories, and airlines cancelled flights. All else simply takes a back seat this morning.”

“在日本海岸遭到8.9级地震之后，重建在短期之内将会是一个奉献交易。更何况，海啸还将会扩大到亚洲太平洋地区。许多地方和厂商已经启动的紧急预案。航空公司在取消航班，今天早上大家坐在后座才保险点。”

Sherry Cooper, chief economist, BMO Financial Group

 BMO金融集团 首席经济师 Sherry Cooper

“The yen as surged because so many are repatriating Japanese foreign investments to deal with the disaster. Right now, all conventional wisdom is standing on its head…”

“日元波动是由于在海外的日本投资商将自己回流参与重建，现在传统的智慧，将放在最前面。”

“Investors should never knee-jerk react in such situations. This is the reason we preach diversification and liquidity. The world and events are much bigger than we can ever plan for. Japan is a major net importer and consumer of oil—thus oil prices fall. Stocks have fallen off sharply as investors look for safe havens. The worst of the early decline in stocks is in the insurance sector.

投资者不应改对此反应过大。我们这样说的原因是多样的。这个事件是远超乎我们的计划的，日本是世界主要的出口商和石油客户，所以石油在跌。股票大跌是因为投资者在寻找避风港。最坏的无疑于减持了保险类股票。

“The full effect of the disaster on global businesses is yet to be known, but clearly it will be negative and substantial. Japan, with the help of the rest of the world, is as well equipped as any nation to deal with the damage and the rebuilding, but reverberations of the quake around the world will be large, but temporary.”

“这场灾难对全球经济的影响还不明朗，但必然是消极和重要的。日本，对全世界都非常重要的一个国家，并且有其他国没有的对地震应措施和重建的经验。地震对全球后续影响将会非常大，但也是暂时的。”

Brad Bechtel, managing director, Faros Trading

 Faros Trading 外汇交易公司 高管 Brad Bechtel

“JPY initially weakened and then rallied sharply on anticipation of repatriation flows from Japanese and insurance companies that may have to make payments to locals. The playbook from the Kobe earthquake in 1995 was for USD/JPY to drop 5%.”

日本短暂的跌幅和迅速的回升，符合了日本海外资金的回流形势。阪神地震后，美元对日元曾跌幅达5%。

Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist, Scotia Capital

丰业资本 首席货币战略家 Camilla Sutton

“The combination of risk aversion and speculation that Japanese firms will repatriate funds back to Japan has been positive for JPY, however the medium term impact is likely far more negative than the market is currently pricing. We look for USDJPY to close this quarter at 82 and to drift slowly higher into year-end.”

由于风险的回避以及投机，日本公司将会把海外资金回流，这有利于日元。但市场反馈来看，在中期之内，这还是一个消极的影响。我们可以期待的是，本季度结束时，美元对日元能达到82，年终之前会缓慢增长。

Andrew Cox, G-10 strategist at Citigroup

花旗集团的十国战略分析师Andrew Cox

“The trajectory of USDJPY in the coming weeks will be driven by the degree of economic disruption, the scale of insurance flows, and the monetary and fiscal response. The broader effects on the Japanese economy will not be understood and digested by the market in the near future as the market interprets the degree to which reconstruction efforts and any changes in consumer confidence and domestic demand impact the recent signs of a renewed pickup in the Japanese economy.”

美元对日元汇率在未来几个星期之内，将会由于保险业和资金财政正材，出现混乱的状况。近期内日本经济带来的更广泛的影响很难解释，但会被市场消化。因为市场会基于重建的程度和消费信心以及日本国内需求影响为信号，重新回到回到日本经济投资中来。

“Unlike the Kobe earthquake in 1995, earthquake insurance is now more widespread and there will likely be substantial flows and JPY buying by reinsurers. However, the scale of insurance flows is likely to remain unclear in the near term and will not occur for 6 to 12 months.”

不同于1995年的坂神大地震，地震保险业已经非常普遍，他们可能会大规模进入日元的购买市场。但是在未来6-12月，保险业的局势还不明朗。

“We expect that the FX market will take its cues from the immediate monetary and fiscal response. The scheduled two day Bank of Japan meeting starts on Monday, March 14. Prior to the earthquake, our economists did not expect any change to policy rates or the size of the asset purchase program. However, in the aftermath of the earthquake, further accommodative monetary policy is a likely outcome as the central bank will be focused on ensuring financial stability.”

我们预计外汇市场将紧随资金和财政政策的而变化。计划星期一召开的日本银行例会由于地震提前召开。我们的经济师还不能看到任何降息或资产卖出的苗头，但可以肯定的是日本中央银行处于稳定金融的目的，出台宽松的经济政策。

“We do not expect that JPY will continue to strengthen as it did following the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The degree of foreign repatriation assets is likely to remain muted and we continue to expect that USDJPY will rise in the coming months as expectations of the Fed’s move away from monetary policy unorthodoxy build and forward rate differentials continue to widen.”

我们不能期望日元会如1995年阪神地震后那样强劲。日本的海外资产可能继续按兵不动，我们预见美元兑日元将在未来数月上升，观望美联储的举动，远离非正统货币政策的建立和远期利率差距的继续扩大。