蔓越莓曲奇饼干:Middle East turbulence scares people worldwide

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Middle East turbulence scares people worldwide

15:49, March 01, 2011      

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    Anti-government protests that erupted in Egypt in late January has spreading rapidly to the whole Arabian Peninsula, the Middle East and north Africa like as prairie fire rages on.

    Since the end of the second world war in September 1945, there has never been a political storm on such a broad scale and such a large scope, as it has not only altered the political ecology of these countries but will have an influence in the entire Middle East region and even on the global set-up; it will also exert an immediate impact on world economy and the global financial market.

    Of late, there have been turbulences and turmoil in the world financial market and the dramatic rising price of oil over the past few months, and the price of a barrel shot up to heights not seen in over two years. This has not only caused the anxiety of petrodollar investors and oil consuming countries but made people worry greatly about the world economic situation and prospects.

    Turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East is an eccentric eruption of accumulated, longstanding problems in the region. In order to control the strategic benefits of oil resources in the region, the United States has for a long time resorted to double standards with many countries in the region. Even at the time when anti-government protests or demonstrations occurred, the U.S. also adopted the double standard stance, either to come out to assist secretly, to hit or to pull, and to come to a nation's aid or abandon it, or to "add fuel to the fire" to aggravate the situation.

    The erroneous, contradictory Middle East Policies of the U.S. have further twisted the political setup of the Middle East, and made the region a new power magazine with crisis-ridden and turbulence intensified, and this will certainly harm its own interests around the world.

    As is known to all, the Middle East is the world's biggest petroleum oil producer and, if the politically-disturb or chaotic situation in the oil-producing Middle East nations spreads quickly and continuously, the crude price will rise fast, and the global bloating tendency will possibly transfer to a rapid rise of prices in crude oil and other natural resources, thus bringing fresh, new challenges to the world economy, which remain difficult to pick up.

    On the other hand, the Suez Canal is the only direct shipping route from Asia to Europe. In fact, the Suez Canal and the Straits of Tiran are the international shipping passage and in line with the international maritime law cannot be blocked. However, once the Middle East situation is escalated, this shipping route may be blocked. Then, the maritime transport cost will increase by a big margin, and all merchandise cost will rise too, and global bloating tendency will possibly intensify. As a result, the newly-emerging countries and even some developed nations will tight macroeconomic regulations with a possible deflation policy to be in place to deal with an input inflation, and the world economy will possibly face stagnation risks.

    Moreover, the situation is quite complex in the Middle East and North Africa, which remain the most active area for global terrorism, interwoven with such issues as those relating to people's livelihoods and civil rights, and to ethnic conflicts and sectarian clashes; if the situation is out of control, it will give rise to conflicts between the Middle East counties and will possibly negatively affect their relations with Israel, and it will likewise produce a significant impact on global security situation as a whole.

    Furthermore, once the situation is chaotic and confused in the entire Middle East region, terrorist forces will have an adequate room to give scope to its role and they will possibly grow in strength and spread on a global scale.

    With a turbulent situation in some Middle East and North Africa countries and a grave, serious impact in their economic, social and security spheres, the social order of countries in the region has been plunged into confusion and people's life has also been affected to a great extent.

    Governments and people in these countries in turbulent situation should adopt democratic and peaceful ways to resolve differences through conducting consultative dialogues and restoring the social order and the people's normal and stable life as soon as possible and, under the premise of keeping the national and social stability, comply with the people's demand, carry out bold government reforms, improve the people's livelihood vigorously, and realize the long-term peace and stability for the nation and society.

    The United Nations Organization, major global powers and leading regional countries should enhance their communication and, proceeding from the overall situation of maintaining the global economic stability and security, coordinate their stances and take concerted actions, in a bid to provide essential support and help restore stability in the Middle East and North Africa region and to reduce as much as possible a negative impact on global economy wrought by the sustained turbulence in the region and strive to stem terrorism from further infiltrating and spreading in the area.

    By People's Daily Online and its author is Shi Jianxun, a special PD guest commentator and a professor at the School of Economics & Management at elite Tongji University in Shanghai
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