中国经济减速不可避免？History shows China slowdown due

China’s stealth fighters have prompted cries of alarm in the US. As the White House prepared for last week’s meeting between US and Chinese leaders, China’s rapid economic expansion was also causing angst. Arvind Subramanian at the Peterson Institute for International Economics calculated China passed the US to become the world’s biggest economy last year, when adjusted for purchasing power.

中国隐形战斗机让美国人发出惊呼。在白宫筹备上周的美中领导人会晤事宜之时，中国快速的经济扩张同样引发了焦虑。

Many economists will dispute Mr Subramanian’s calculations (he rejects the standard measures of purchasing power parity). Even in simple dollar terms, though, figures last week showed China passed Japan to become the second biggest economy.

彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)推算，经过购买力调整，去年中国已超越美国，成为全球第一大经济体。

The economic consensus believes China will keep on expanding, to surpass the US in dollar terms some time in the next 40 years. In short, China matters.

许多经济学家都会质疑萨勃拉曼尼亚的算法（他没有采用购买力平价的常规方法）。然而，即便是单纯按照美元计算，上周的数据也显示中国已超越日本，成为全球第二大经济体。

However, economists have a miserable track record when it comes to predicting that fast-growing economies will pass the US.

大多数经济学家认为，中国将继续扩张，按美元计算，中国经济规模在未来40年内的某个时候将超过美国。简言之，中国至关重要。

Forecasts from the 1970s suggested Japan should have been the world’s biggest economy for a decade now. In the 1980s that seemed so certain that its economic and corporate models were lauded around the world. It is hard to believe, but in the 1960s predictions were rife that the Soviet Union would pass the US, based on Russia’s rapid growth as it industrialised in the 1950s.

然而，过去经济学家们也曾预言一些迅速增长的经济体会超越美国，却屡屡失准。

Forecasts of China passing the US make rather more sense than previous predictions: its population is so vast that its people need reach only a fraction of American living standards to create a bigger economy. But history suggests we should cast a critical eye over these prognostications.

如果上世纪70年代的预言应验，日本十年前应该就已经是全球第一大经济体了。在上世纪80年代，这似乎是板上钉钉的事，因此日本经济及企业模式在世界各地备受推崇。说起来令人难以置信，但在60年代，人们都盛传苏联将超越美国。这是基于俄国人50年代实行工业化后经济增长迅速而作出的预测。

How did we get here? Chinese output has grown an average 9.9 per cent a year since 1979. In three decades, only once has its annual growth dipped below 4 per cent; over the same period the UK and France have grown above 4 per cent only twice.

有关中国将超越美国的预测，倒是比以往那些预测靠谱：中国人口众多，只要人民生活水平达到美国人的几分之一，中国经济规模就能够超过美国。但历史表明，我们应该以挑剔的态度来看待这些预言。

Even the bulls do not think this rate of growth can continue. HSBC this month predicted that Chinese growth would average 6.5 per cent a year over the next decade, then 5.7 per cent from 2020-2030. Education, political and monetary stability and a still-low starting point back its calculations.

这些预测是怎么来的？从1979年起，中国经济年均增长9.9%。30年来，中国经济的年增长率只有一次低于4%。而同期内，英国和法国的经济增长率只有两次高于4%。

Similar arguments were made in the 1990s for why the Asian tigers could continue expanding. They turned out to be illusory, built on over-investment.

就连乐观派也认为，这样的增长率无法继续。汇丰(HSBC)本月预测，下个十年内，中国经济的年均增长率为6.5%；2020-2030年期间则为5.7%。教育、政治及货币稳定，加之起点依然较低，均支持这一预测。

Yet, there is a difference to China. The Asian tigers were growing rather as Soviet Russia had in the 1950s. Their people were working harder, studying more and saving and investing more, creating economic growth. But economic “inputs” – labour, skill levels and capital – could not keep rising forever. Only more efficient use of those inputs would make growth sustainable. Sure enough, the tigers looked less fierce when their economies collapsed in 1997.

上世纪90年代，人们曾提出类似的理由，论证“亚洲四小龙”能够继续扩张。但结果证明，它们不过是建立在过度投资基础上的海市蜃楼。

This does not apply to China. True, it has been investing at a ridiculously high 45 per cent of gross domestic product. But since reforms – “socialism with Chinese characteristics” – in 1978, it has been increasing the efficiency with which it deploys both capital and labour at among the highest rates in the world. China is not just a story of people working harder and having more tools.

不过，它们与中国有一点不同。“亚洲四小龙”当时的增长情况，更像是上世纪50年代的苏联。他们的人民工作更加努力，学得更多，储蓄和投资也更多，由此实现经济增长。然而，经济要素——劳动力、技术和资本——无法永远保持增长。只有提高要素的使用效率，才能实现可持续的增长。果不其然，1997年经济崩溃时，“四小龙”就显得不那么威武了。

Unfortunately for the bulls, academics think this is coming to an end. A recent Asian Development Bank working paper attributes most of the efficiency gains in China to a catch-up effect, as income per person rose towards global averages. That cannot last, and the research predicts growth in total factor productivity, as it is known to economists, will fall below that of South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and even Pakistan over the next 20 years.

中国不属于这种情形。诚然，中国的投资水平一直高得离谱，在国内生产总值(GDP)中占到45%的比重。但是自从1978年实行改革——“具有中国特色的社会主义改革”——以来，中国的资本和劳动力使用效率的提高速度一直位列世界前茅。人民更加努力工作、拥有更多工具之类的言语，不足以概括中国的情况。

As productivity growth peters out, it seems unlikely that rising capital or labour inputs will take its place. Investment is already a higher share of output in China than in Japan or South Korea during their growth phases, according to Chris Watling at Longview Economics. Only Singapore briefly matched China’s current investment rate, and could not sustain it. Workers are showing signs of being unwilling to work so hard for so little pay.

让乐观派扫兴的是，学者们认为，这种势头即将终结。亚洲开发银行(ADB)最近发表的一篇工作报告，把中国要素使用效率提高的主要原因归结为“追赶效应”，即人均收入朝着全球平均水平靠拢的过程。这种状况无法持续，报告进而预测，未来20年内，中国“全要素生产率”（一个经济学概念）的增长速度将降至低于韩国、台湾、马来西亚、菲律宾乃至巴基斯坦的水平。

Patterns from the past also suggest a slowdown is due. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea sustained their high growth only for three decades – about what China has done so far. After Japan’s initial industrialisation phase was over, growth halved, averaging 4.6 per cent for the next 25 years, before slowing even further.

随着生产率增长趋于停滞，资本和劳动力这两项要素似乎都不太可能接过棒，不断地保持增长。Longview Economics的克里斯•沃特林(Chris Watling)指出，中国目前的投资率已高于日本和韩国在各自增长阶段的水平。只有新加坡的投资率曾经达到过中国目前的水平，但也为时短暂。中国工人开始表现出不愿为少得可怜的薪水如此卖力工作的迹象。

There are plenty of potential triggers for a slowdown. Policy measures to control runaway food price inflation could work too well. The housing bubble in large cities could burst, rather than deflating slowly, and could hit over-indebted local authorities. Finally, the state-controlled banks may need another big injection of cash to make up for their wild lending over the past two years, taking resources away from the rest of the economy.

过去的范例也表明，中国经济应该到了减速的时刻。日本、台湾和韩国的高增长均只保持了30年——目前中国就到了这个关口。日本在初步工业化阶段结束后，增长率降低了一半，在接下来25年里经济年均增长4.6%，其后又进一步放缓。

Even with a slowdown, China will still be one of the world’s biggest economies, and a vital contributor to geopolitical discourse. But there seems a reasonable chance the current hype is overdone.

有许多潜在诱因可能导致中国经济减速。控制食品价格飞涨的政策措施有可能过火。各大城市的房地产泡沫可能破裂，而不是缓慢萎缩，结果可能对过度负债的地方政府造成冲击。最后，国有控股银行可能需要新一轮的大笔注资，以填补过去两年疯狂放贷造成的窟窿，这会从其它经济环节抽取资源。

即使出现减速，中国仍将是全球最大的经济体之一和地缘政治话题中的重要角色。但是，眼下的炒作很可能有些过火了。