中国GDP加重过热担忧China data fuel overheating fears

China’s economy expanded faster than expected at the end of last year adding to concerns about overheating and prompting expectations of further monetary tightening in the coming months.

中国去年第四季度经济增速超过预期，加剧了人们对于经济过热的担忧，引发了未来数月内中国将进一步收紧货币政策的猜测。

Fourth quarter GDP growth rose to 9.8 per cent, beating expectations, with GDP growth for the year at 10.3 per cent, up 1.1 percentage points from 2009.

第四季度GDP增长9.8%，增速超出预期；去年全年GDP增长10.3%，较2009年高出1.1个百分点。

The figures also confirm that China surpassed Japan for the first time last year to become the world’s second-largest economy after the US.

该数据也证实，中国去年首次超过日本，成为仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体。

Annual consumer price inflation, a key headache for policy makers, fell back to 4.6 per cent in December, from a 28-month high of 5.1 per cent in November, but analysts said inflationary pressures remain and prices are expected to rebound in the first quarter, complicating the government’s efforts to cool the economy without triggering a sharp slowdown.

令政策制定者颇感头疼的消费价格增长，在11月达到5.1%的28个月高点之后，12月回落至4.6%。不过，有分析师表示，通胀压力依然存在，预计价格将在第一季度出现反弹。这将为政府在冷却经济的同时避免出现硬着陆的努力增加不少困难。

For the whole year, consumer prices rose 3.3 percent, above the target of 3 per cent Beijing set at the start of 2010. Food prices, the main driver of inflation, were much higher, up 7.2 per cent for the year.

就全年而言，消费价格指数增长3.3%，高于北京在2010年年初设定的3%的目标。作为通胀的主要驱动力，食品价格增长更快，达到7.2%。

Purchaser’s prices for raw materials were also up nearly ten per cent in 2010.

原材料的采购价格在2010年也上涨了将近10%。

Ma Jiantang, commissioner for the National Bureau of Statistics, announced the data on Thursday in Beijing and vowed the government would succeed in controlling inflation in 2011.

中国国家统计局局长马建堂周四在北京宣布了以上数据，并承诺政府将在2011年成功控制通货膨胀。

“We have full confidence that we will control the price level in 2011,” Mr Ma said, adding that China’s seven consecutive years of good harvests meant food prices would be kept under control. The government has said it will adopt a “prudent” monetary policy this year.

“2011年，我们有信心将物价控制在预期目标范围内。”马建堂说。他补充道，中国已连续7年农业丰收，这意味着政府有能力控制粮食价格。中国政府已经表示，今年将采取“审慎”的货币政策。

Mr Ma said inflationary pressures were real, citing quantitative easing in developed countries, and the rising costs of land and labour, as contributing to an inflationary environment.

马建堂表示，通胀压力是真实存在的。他指出，发达国家采取的量化宽松政策、不断上涨的土地和劳动力成本都会助长通胀。

Qing Wang, an economist with Morgan Stanley, said: “Monetary policy will be tightened and the tightening will be front loaded.” He attributed the growth spurt to the “mini-stimulus” measures enacted by Beijing in the summer of last year, as well as growth in industrial production in the fourth quarter as energy efficiency measures were eased.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家王庆表示：“货币政策将趋于紧缩性，以起到预防作用。”他把快速增长归因于北京方面去年夏季采取的“小型刺激”措施，以及去年第四季度节能减排措施放宽之后，各地工业产出的增长。

“[The faster growth was] a result of the combination of strong demand which is boosted by loose monetary policy as well as an improvement in external demand,” said Yu Song, China economist for Goldman Sachs.

按照另一种有争议性的估算，去年中国的购买力甚至超过了美国。这一观点是华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高级研究员阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚(Arvind Subramanian)提出的。

In one controversial estimate, China may even have overtaken the US last year in terms of purchasing power, according to Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

据他估算，在对中美两国的生活成本差异做出调整后，中国经济规模去年增至14.8万亿美元，高于美国的14.6万亿美元。但许多经济学家不同意他的观点。2010年，中国的名义GDP总量仅为6万亿美元。