飞利浦衡阳专卖店地址:Trial and error drives innovation

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Trial and error drives innovation



By Luke Johnson


One of the best short books of the year is The Great Stagnation by Tyler Cowen. He argues that the west has reached a technological plateau: we have eaten all the low-hanging economic fruit, so growth is stunted and progress will be much harder from here. We have assumed debt and lived beyond our means, under the illusion that our incomes and productivity are still climbing like they did in the past.


The author’s core concept – that innovative breakthroughs are much scarcer than before – implies that we must become better at industrial invention if we are to recover our living standards and tackle unemployment.


It is surely no coincidence that Apple, one of the world’s most valuable companies by market capitalisation, is the pioneer of the iPod, iPhone and iPad – all revolutionary products. Yet its revenues place it outside the top 100 corporations if judged by sales. Investors appear to rate innovation above almost anything else; given Apple’s prodigious margins, cash generation and growth, perhaps they are right.


So how on earth do society and industry become more innovative? There are hundreds of books, business school papers and conference speakers that provide possible solutions. One of the better recent works is Little Bets by Peter Sims. His basic insight is that original thinkers use many small, experimental prototypes to test and evolve ideas that are achievable and affordable. As ever, it is about making mistakes – but making sure they are inexpensive – and learning from the error.


In a general sense, acquiring a low-cost business education is a sound philosophy. I notice that many of the bolder and more exciting ideas in restaurants and food service are not actually launching as full-blown, large scale outlets. Rather, the cutting edge stuff is being initiated by entrepreneurs as market stalls or mobile food trucks. Typically these operators are specialist – serving pies, or churros, or porridge, or hot dogs or some other niche cuisine – with an emphasis on fresh, seasonal and local fare. They are not the traditional food kiosks – rather they are gourmet offerings, selling to discerning customers. They turn up at curb sides, festivals, shopping centres and university campuses.


Pop-up restaurants are a similar phenomenon: temporary outlets done on a shoestring on a short-term licence. These outsiders can develop cult followings, in part because they are different. Their informality and originality resonates with early adopters and opinion formers.


Such projects are perhaps a tenth of the capital cost of a conventional restaurant – and they provide an authenticity that many customers like. Moreover, they can open very quickly – the usual property planning, licensing and negotiation hurdles are almost irrelevant. And because the budgets are so much lower, the risks are commensurately less of a deterrent. The usual barriers to entry are absent – what it takes is imagination and energy. Most of the players in this street food revolution are young and not industry veterans. They bring fresh ideas and a passion, rather than the predictable and over-priced meals too common among many high street chains.


Scaling up such transient projects is hard, but learning from them is not. They act as prototypes in action, real-life blueprints with genuine customer feedback.


The Edinburgh Fringe Festival can serve as a similar device for comedy and theatre – low-budget performances where new material is tested, before embarking on costly tours or elaborate West End bookings. Everything at Edinburgh is done for a fraction of the cost of staging a show at a formal theatre. It is about experimenting, and seeing what the audience and critics like.


Market research is never quite as informative as a real product trial. Actually opening a new store concept, or launching a new brand, will always tell you more. But the key is to do it quickly and cheaply enough so that if it is a flop, the practice run can be abandoned or altered without too much pain. Informal methods are one way of cutting costs and timetables. And they are a reminder that without regular speculations, we face a future of stagnation – because by definition progress means relentless activity and hope, rather than inertia.
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