风雨同路电影粤语:中国购买黄金，挑战美元

据最近发布的维基解密电报的内容，中国正在用黄金来取代其庞大的外汇储备中的部分美元，以动摇美元全球储备货币的角色。

"They [the US and Europe] intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the US dollar or Euro," stated the 2009 cable, quoting Chinese Radio International. "China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold."

维基解密发布的2009年电报引用了中国国际广播电台的话说“他们（美国和欧洲）想要削弱黄金作为国际储备货币的功能。他们不想看到其他国家把黄金作为储备货币，而用美元或者欧元。中国增持黄金将为其他国家转向储备黄金起到示范与引导的作用。”

The cable is titled "China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone". Taken together with recent policy announcements from Chinese banking officials, it may signal moves by China to eventually replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

电报的标题是：中国增加黄金储备意在一石二鸟。综合最近中国银行业官方公布的政策来看，这可能预示着中国最终将取代美元作为全球储备货币。

Last week, European business officials announced that China plans to make its currency, the yuan, fully convertible for trading on international markets by 2015. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, said the offshore market for the yuan is "developing faster than we had imagined" but there is no definitive timetable for making the currency fully convertible. 

上周，欧洲的商务官员宣布中国计划到2015年它的货币“元”在国际市场上实现自由交易。中国央行行长周小川表示，人民币离岸市场“正在快速发展，超出我们的想象”，但是并没有一个推动人民币实现完全自由交易的最终时间表。

Presently, the yuan cannot be easily converted into other currencies, because of government restrictions.

最近，由于政府的限制，人民币兑换其他货币变得困难。

China's gold holdings are small compared to other major economies. It has 1,054 tonnes, the sixth-largest reserves in the world, according to data from the World Gold Council. 

根据世界黄金组织的数据，中国黄金储备规模与其他主要经济体相比较少，储备量在1054吨，是全球第六大储备国。

Dollar's dilemma 

美元的困境

Buying gold and allowing the yuan to be traded freely would weaken the US dollar's dominance as the international reserve currency. The move would have major implications, making it more expensive for the US government to borrow money and to run perpetual trade and budget deficits.

购买黄金并且让人民币自由交易将削弱美元作为全球储备货币统治者的地位。这一举动将有重大意义，使得美国政府举债维持永久贸易和预算赤字变得代价更高。

"The US is used to having the position of having the key reserve currency, but others are eager to replace it," said Josh Aizenman, a professor of economics at the University of California and president of the International Economics and Finance Society.

加州大学经济学教授、国际经济和财政组织总裁Josh Aizenman说：“美国曾经占据核心储备货币的地位，但是其他国家渴望取而代之。”

As a reserve currency, the US dollar is the default for international transactions. If, for example, a South Korean company wants to buy wine from Chile, chances are they will carry out the transaction in dollars. Both companies must then purchase dollars to conduct their business, leading to greater demand. The value of global commodities, such as oil, is also generally demarcated in US dollars.

作为储备货币，美元是国际贸易中的通用货币。例如，如果韩国公司向智利购买红酒，他们可能将用美元来支付这笔交易。那么两家公司必须购买美元支持他们的业务，从而导致了对美元的更大的需求。全球商品价值例如石油，都是用美元来定价的。

Being a reserve currency allows the US to borrow at low interest rates, as central banks around the world are eager to buy US government debt. "Any country that can finance its expenditures by printing money or selling bonds is essentially getting a free lunch," Aizenman told Al Jazeera.

Aizenman对半岛电视台表示，由于世界各国的央行期望购买美国国债，因此使得扮演全球储备货币角色的美国可以较低利率借贷。

With China's apparent change of heart, that "free lunch" now might come with a hefty tab. Given the massive US trade deficit, average Americans might be sent to the restaurant's kitchen to wash dishes if the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency. 

随着中国决心的明显改变，“免费的午餐”可能将不会再有。美国背负着巨大的贸易逆差。如果美元失去全球储备货币的地位，普通没人可能被迫到餐馆厨房洗盘子谋生。

"China, until recently, was focusing on buying the US dollar through bonds," Aizeman said. Since the economic crisis, the US dollar has dropped compared to other major currencies, particularly the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Brazilian real. This leaves China in a bind, analysts said.

Aizeman说：“直到最近，中国仍然致力于购买美元债券。”由于经济危机，美元已经对其他主要货币贬值，特别是瑞士法郎、加拿大元和巴西里拉。分析表明，这让中国处于困境。

Currency reserves

货币储备

In March 2011, China held $3.04tn US dollars in reserves, Xinhua news agenecy reported. It is the largest holder of US treasuries, or government debt, with $1.166tn as of June 30, 2011, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Thus, major devaluation of the dollar would hurt China, as it would be left holding wads of worthless paper.

新华社报道，2011年3月中国持有3.04万亿的美元储备。根据旧金山年鉴的数字，到2011年6月30日中国以1.166万亿美元储备成为美国国债和政府债券的最大持有国。但是主要货币的贬值将伤及中国，使得储备的货币成为废纸。

"If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100m, that's the bank's problem," American industrialist Jean Paul Getty once remarked, in a parable that sums up China's predicament.

美国实业家Jean Paul Getty在总结中国的困境时比喻说：“如果你欠银行100美元，那是你的问题。如果你欠银行100万美元，那是银行的问题”。

"China is locked into a position where they cannot sell a big portion of their dollar reserves overnight without hurting themselves," Aizenman said. "It is too late for now to diversify rapidly the stock they have already accumulated." 

Aizenman表示：“中国已经陷入了一个困境。他们无法迅速抛售储备中的一大部分美元而不损害自己的利益。现在要使他们所积累的储备实现多样化已经太迟了。”

The answer: Buy gold. Everyone seems to be doing it. The value of the glistening commodity, useless for most practical purposes, increased almost 400 per cent, from less than $500 an ounce in 2005 to about $1,900 in September.

解决的方式是购买黄金。每个人似乎都在这样做。虽然毫无实际用处，这个金光闪闪的商品的价值上涨了400%，从2005年500美元一盎司的价格飙升至9月份的1900美元。

"Gold has risen in value because of uncertainty in the world economy," said Mark Weisbrot, the co-director of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research, a think-tank in Washington. "Normally, gold would rise due to high inflation. It is a store of value that increases if there is inflation. But in this case it is going up because nobody knows where else to put their money."

华盛顿智囊、经济和政策研究中心共同主任Mark Weisbrot说：“金价的上涨源于世界经济的不确定性。通常金价上涨源于高通胀，一旦通胀发生，可以保值增值。但是此次金价上涨是由于人们不知道把钱放在哪儿。”

In the WikiLeaks cable, China alleged that "the US and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold", but neither Weisbrot or Aizenman think such a policy is taking place or even possible. 

在维基解密的电报中，中国宣称“美欧一直以来压制金价的上涨”，但是Weisbrot和Aizenman都认为无论是过去还是现在都没有这种政策。

Presently, China places strict controls on its currency, limiting foreigners from doing business in the yuan or trading it on foreign exchange markets. That could change in the next five years, according to governor Xiaochuan's recent announcement.

近来，中国加强了对其货币的控制，限制外国人以人民币来进行商业贸易或者在外汇市场进行交易。按照金融当局负责人周小川最近的说法，这种局面将会在未来5年发生改变。

By owning such large reserves of US currency, and through controlling the yuan, China can keep its currency lower than it would be if it floated freely. This makes Chinese exports cheaper.

即使允许自由浮动，通过拥有如此庞大的美元储备以及对人民币的控制，中国能够按照意愿来保持人民币的低价位。这将使得中国的出口成本更加低廉。

The relationship, in which Chinese investment in US government bonds allows low interest rates for Americans to buy Chinese products, has worked well for the last 15 years. In 2010, the US ran a $273.1bn trade deficit with China.

中国对美国政府债券的投资使得美国保持了低利率水平以购买中国商品，这种关系持续了15年。2010年美国对华贸易赤字达2731亿美元。

"We pay our debts in dollars so we can print money to pay our international debts," Weisbrot told Al Jazeera. Because of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, the US "can run trade deficits indefinitely" while borrowing internationally without serious repercussions, giving the world's largest economy a "big advantage", he said.

Weisbrot告诉半岛电视台：“因为我们用美元支付债务，所以我们可以通过印钞票来支付我们的国际债务”。他说，由于美元现在作为储备货币，美国可以一方面继续向国际借款，另一方面也可以无限期的扛住贸易赤字而不会产生严重的印象，从而给这个全世界最大的经济体带来很大的优势。

If gold, the yuan, or a combination of other currencies replaced the dollar, the US would lose that advantage. 

如果黄金、人民币或者其他货币组合取代美元，美国将失去这个优势。

Without a replacement in the near term, nothing will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next five years at least. But nothing lasts forever. "When they [China] want the dollar to fall, they will let it," Weisbrot said. "The dollar will fall eventually but that could be a long time away."

如果近期没有其他货币取而代之，那么美元将至少在未来5年继续成为世界储备货币。但是世无定事。Weisbrot表示，“当中国希望取代美元，他们将会这样做。美元最终将会被取而代之，只不过这是一个长期的过程。”

The fate of the dollar notwithstanding, a separate WikiLeaks cable outlines some of the broader ambiguities of the world's most important economic relationship, or "ChinAmerica", as it has been dubbed by historian Niall Ferguson.

尽管美元命中注定，一份单独的维基解密电报对世界上最重要的经济关系作了广泛的模棱两可的勾画，按照历史学家Niall Ferguson的说法叫做“中美国”（ChinAmerica）。

"No one in 1979 would have predicted that China would become the United States' most important relationship in thirty years," the cable stated. "No one today can predict with certainty where our relations with Beijing will be thirty years hence."

电报说：“在1979年没有人会预见到中国将成为美国未来30年里最重要的伙伴。今天，也没有人能够确切的预见到未来30年我们与北京的关系将如何发展。”