青岛电泳加工厂家:Chinese strive to secure soft landing

来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/04/28 04:17:00

Chinese strive to secure soft landing

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2011-9-2 13:29

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing


While politicians in Europe, the US and most other developed economies struggle with the prospect of another downturn, China’s leaders are facing the opposite problem – how to stop their domestic economy from roaring ahead too quickly.


In an article on Thursday, Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, said reining in soaring consumer prices was the top priority for Beijing, as it had been for most of this year, and that China’s “macro-control and adjustment direction cannot be changed”.


Most analysts believe Mr Wen is signalling Beijing’s reluctance to unleash another enormous stimulus package such as the one it launched in late 2008, and that China’s leaders feel the economy is robust enough for them to continue to dampen growth.


After nearly a year of monetary tightening, the Chinese economy has responded almost exactly as the mandarins in Beijing wanted, with a gradual slowdown to a steady growth rate that reduces the chances of overheating and runaway inflation.


In fact, the global turmoil in recent weeks that has revived fears of a double-dip recession in the west has potentially made Mr Wen’s job of reining in the domestic economy somewhat easier.


In a sign that China is headed for a soft touch-down, the country’s official purchasing managers’ index climbed 0.2 points to 50.9 in August after falling for four months. A separate measure published by HSBC and Markit Economics came in at 49.9, up from 49.3 in July. A reading below 50 indicates contraction while a number above 50 indicates expansion.


Most economists have reduced their expectations for Chinese expansion this year in response to the deteriorating prospects in developed economies, although the predicted growth rate remains the envy of the world. UBS has lowered its forecast for growth in gross domestic product from 9.3 per cent to 9 per cent in 2011 from a year earlier and from 9 per cent to 8.3 per cent in 2012 because “the expected drop in developing markets growth will hurt China’s exports and related investment”.


Persistent inflation, particularly for politically sensitive food prices, has been the top economic policy concern for Beijing since the start of the year; consumer inflation hit a three-year high of 6.5 per cent in July. However, the global gloom could provide positive news for China on this front too.


“Broadly speaking, the decline in global demand will likely reduce commodity prices,” says Ma Jun, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank.


Of course, the misfortunes of developed economies are not all good news for China.


If US and European growth slows drastically, as it did in 2008, it would prompt a collapse in Chinese exports, causing domestic production and investment also to slump, and raise the possibility of a hard landing that would be exacerbated by recent tightening measures.


The official PMI data showed new export orders dropped significantly in August, but domestic orders made up for the slump to keep the new order sub-index at 51.1 for the month, unchanged from July.


This was taken by some analysts as fresh evidence that the government is beginning to make headway in its goal to rebalance the economy away from an over-reliance on exports and more towards domestic demand.


Economists say China is certainly less dependent on its export sector than it was when the global crisis hit in 2008, but top Chinese officials, including Mr Wen, freely admit that the economy is still far too reliant on investment.
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