不要奢望人民币大幅升值New era for renminbi? Don’t bet on it

Despite its track record as one of the world’s most boring currencies, the renminbi has a unique ability to generate endless rumours.

从过往记录上看，人民币堪称世界上最单调乏味的货币之一，但却拥有制造无尽谣言的独特本事。

The latest talk is that Beijing is on the cusp of a new exchange rate policy, involving noticeably faster appreciation and more market-driven volatility for its tightly managed currency. Those would certainly be welcome changes, but, if history is any guide, the reality is likely to disappoint.

最新的风声是，中国政府即将出台新的汇率政策，让受严格管制的人民币显著加快升值步伐，并允许人民币在市场作用下、加大波动幅度。这些改革当然值得欢迎，但假如历史可资借鉴，现实可能会令人失望。

The immediate prompt for the excited speculation has been a burst of appreciation. The renminbi closed at a record high on Tuesday, the fifth straight day in which the People’s Bank of China set its midpoint – the fixing for its daily trading band – at a record high.

引发沸沸扬扬猜测的直接导火线，是人民币突然迸发的一轮升值走势。上周二，人民币收创历史新高，由中国央行(PBoC)设定的人民币汇率中间价也连续第5天创新高。

These sound like impressive milestones. But a bit of perspective is in order.

这些听上去像是值得瞩目的转捩点，但且看以下剖析。

By virtue of having previously been pegged to the dollar for more than a decade, the renminbi’s revaluation in 2005 and its steady, gradual appreciation since then mean that the Chinese currency hits a record high against the dollar almost every day that it trades up, even if it is just a smidgen stronger.

在实行盯住美元汇率制十多年之后，中国在2005年对人民币币值进行了重估，此后人民币一直以平稳、渐进的步伐升值。这意味着，在几乎每一个走高的交易日，即使涨幅微乎其微，人民币兑美元汇率都是创下历史新高。

As for the successive midpoint record highs, we have also seen this before. The redback was effectively re-pegged to the dollar at the height of the financial crisis; when the central bank set it free last June, it promised to deliver more two-way action, to prevent sustained appreciation from being such an obvious bet for hot money investors. It has, to a certain extent, achieved that two-way volatility by ushering in consecutive days of stronger midpoints followed by consecutive days of plateaus or even slight declines.

至于中间价连续创新高，在以前也有过先例。在金融危机最严重的时期，中国实际上将人民币重新盯住了美元。去年6月取消盯住政策时，中国央行承诺加强人民币的双向波动，以防持续升值成为热钱投资者豪赌的目标。通过连续数天提高中间价、而后又连续数天保持中间价持平或小幅下调这种做法，中国央行在某种程度上实现了双向波动。

Ultimately, what matters for the renminbi is how much it changes over time, not whether it is incrementally stronger or weaker on consecutive days. On this front, the currency’s path is decidedly less impressive.

追根究底，对人民币来说，重要的是一段时期内它的波动幅度有多大，而非它是否连续数日渐进升值或贬值。就此而言，人民币目前的走势显然没有人们以为得那么令人瞩目。

Over the past seven trading sessions – the period of the renminbi’s so-called “mini-revaluation” – the currency has gained just 0.9 per cent against the dollar. The emphasis should clearly be on “mini”.

在过去7个交易日里，即所谓的人民币“微调”时期，人民币兑美元汇率仅上升0.9%。重点显然应该放在“微”这个字上。

Taking the longer view, since June 2010, when its financial crisis quasi-peg was broken, the renminbi has gained 7 per cent against the dollar. But during that same time, the renminbi has actually fallen about 4.5 per cent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements that was published this week. In other words, the renminbi has really only been strengthening against an even weaker dollar.

从更长的时期来看，自从2010年6月取消金融危机时期实行的准盯住政策以来，人民币兑美元汇率上涨了7%。但根据国际清算银行(BIS)上周发布的数据，同期内人民币兑一篮子贸易加权货币的汇率实际上下跌了4.5%左右。换句话说，人民币升值，不过是对更弱的美元而言。

The suggestion that Beijing might widen the renminbi’s daily trading band also misses the point. Such a move, which would supposedly increase the currency’s volatility, would be sensible if it was bumping up against the limits of its present band. It is not.

有关中国可能扩大人民币日交易波幅的说法也有失偏颇。按理说，这么做会增强人民币的波动性，但是，除非人民币一直沿现行波幅上限持续升值，这样的举措才具有意义。但事实并非如此。

At present, the yuan can fluctuate by 0.5 per cent up or down from its daily fixing against the dollar. On Tuesday, a day of unusually big trading gains, the renminbi rose a maximum of 0.16 per cent from its midpoint. Until it starts fluctuating by, say, 0.4 per cent on a regular basis, any change to the trading band should be regarded as largely symbolic.

目前人民币兑美元汇率可围绕每日中间价上下浮动0.5%。上周二，人民币涨幅之大已属异常，可盘中最多也只比中间价上浮了0.16%。在人民币交易波幅开始经常性地达到一定水平（比如0.4%）之前，修改日交易波幅只能被视作象征意义居多之举。

This is not to say that nothing has changed in China.

这并不是说中国一切都没变。

Multiple commentary pieces in official media have called for faster appreciation in recent days. The realisation that Beijing must continue to add to its towering pile of dollars in order to depress the renminbi’s value is unsettling for Chinese who witnessed the narrowly averted disaster in US debt ceiling negotiations.

中国官方媒体近日来刊发了多篇评论性文章，呼吁加快人民币升值步伐。目睹了美国债务上限谈判险些酿成大祸的中国人惶恐不安地认识到，为了压低人民币汇率，中国必然要继续积累已然高得惊人的美元储备。

And on one count at least, the renminbi’s mild increase over the past week is something new. With global markets in turmoil, Beijing’s instinct in the past was to freeze its currency against the dollar and wait for trouble to blow over. That it has continued to push the renminbi higher as global markets have tumbled suggests a somewhat stronger commitment to appreciation.

而且，至少在一个问题上，人民币在过去一些天的温和升值有了一种新意。在过去，每当全球市场陷入动荡，中国政府的本能就是定格人民币兑美元汇率，静待风波平息。但这一次，当全球市场大跌时，中国却继续推动人民币走高，这说明当局的升值意向有所增强。

But claims that we are on the brink of fundamental change for the renminbi deserve to be greeted with scepticism.

但是，有关人民币即将迎来根本改革的说法仍值得怀疑。